Greyhound Mystique

Any markets not covered in the other boards
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wearthefoxhat
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:08 pm
I am not an expert but i would rather use the WinTimes when taking an average as opposed to what TF, SL or RP do to adjust the times.

Still dont fully understand why they do it or what the purpose is.

If a dog wins his last 5 races with times of 27.00, 28.00, 26.00, 29.00 and 25.00 then thats what i want to know. :)
I tend to agree as this is known information about the winner of that race. The adjustments are made based on the going of the track on that day and therein lies a conundrum, what is this based on?

(probably track specific knowledge, ie: standard times for that grade and some gut feel)

If the weather is baking hot, and the track is hard, the times are quicker so the adjustment of +0.30 might be justified, but get it wrong by 0.10 that's the equivalent of a length and a quarter! In greyhound terms that a big swing for some races.

Alternatively, if a lot of rain, the adjustment can be as much as -0.70, bringing down a sluggish time nearer to the standard....but that's even more room for error!

Of course, the beaten distances of 1 length = 0.08, are part of the adjustment, that's standard, but then again, 0.676 has been proven to more accurate.

rule.GIF

Someone's probably out there with a database across all tracks ready to pounce on some value, if something doesn't add up...
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Atho55
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Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

If you have the distance run and the time you could work out the speed of the dog speed=distance/time then see which can actually run the fastest... just a thought
Jukebox
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Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

This thread started with an observation that punters had a high degree of predictability that might be exploited by a pre-off trader and it has been refreshing to watch the excitement generated.
Gradually the focus has turned from predicting punter behaviour to predicting dog performance (nothing necessarily wrong with that). If you do end up, by ever more refined analysis, spotting dog potential that the punters don't see you'll lose your trading edge over the punter - ie if the punters don't see the sophisticated nuances of a dog's potential to win that you do then they won't be backing it and the price won't shorten. Meanwhile the punters will continue to punt using whatever metrics they do.
It can be easy to lose sight of the real quarry in the chase.
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ilovepizza82
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Jukebox wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:58 pm
This thread started with an observation that punters had a high degree of predictability that might be exploited by a pre-off trader and it has been refreshing to watch the excitement generated.
Gradually the focus has turned from predicting punter behaviour to predicting dog performance (nothing necessarily wrong with that). If you do end up, by ever more refined analysis, spotting dog potential that the punters don't see you'll lose your trading edge over the punter - ie if the punters don't see the sophisticated nuances of a dog's potential to win that you do then they won't be backing it and the price won't shorten. Meanwhile the punters will continue to punt using whatever metrics they do.
It can be easy to lose sight of the real quarry in the chase.
Yeah i was wondering mysefl if an average Joe really checked last 5 runs and then put all the data in a spreadsheet and then make a decision...sounds a bit compliacted for an average Joe for my likening :) but...if it works...
Archery1969
Posts: 3192
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Location: Newport

Hi,

I dont think its straying that much from the original post.

What i am looking at his including ALL races with x time difference but having some additional automated rules being met before opening a trade.

Today that would have given around 72 selections but i expect around half will not meet the additional rules.

However out of those 35 or so selections i am expecting 70% to return a 10% profit per race. That maybe an overestimate but its all good fun. :)

Cheers for now,
iDooze
Posts: 50
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:27 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:28 pm
Hi,

I dont think its straying that much from the original post.

What i am looking at his including ALL races with x time difference but having some additional automated rules being met before opening a trade.

Today that would have given around 72 selections but i expect around half will not meet the additional rules.

However out of those 35 or so selections i am expecting 70% to return a 10% profit per race. That maybe an overestimate but its all good fun. :)

Cheers for now,
Are you still checking your selections with TF / RP picks? Also, does VWAP play a prominent role for you - or just one extra thing you added in to be more specific on the selections you trade on?
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ilovepizza82
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Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:28 pm
Hi,

I dont think its straying that much from the original post.

What i am looking at his including ALL races with x time difference but having some additional automated rules being met before opening a trade.

Today that would have given around 72 selections but i expect around half will not meet the additional rules.

However out of those 35 or so selections i am expecting 70% to return a 10% profit per race. That maybe an overestimate but its all good fun. :)

Cheers for now,
How do you manage to input all the data with your new approach ? Its EXTREMELY time consuming !
I dont think it would take me less than 2 hours (at least) to enter all the data into the spreadsheet.
I think i will just stick with the original method.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

ilovepizza82 wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:58 am
Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:28 pm
Hi,

I dont think its straying that much from the original post.

What i am looking at his including ALL races with x time difference but having some additional automated rules being met before opening a trade.

Today that would have given around 72 selections but i expect around half will not meet the additional rules.

However out of those 35 or so selections i am expecting 70% to return a 10% profit per race. That maybe an overestimate but its all good fun. :)

Cheers for now,
How do you manage to input all the data with your new approach ? Its EXTREMELY time consuming !
I dont think it would take me less than 2 hours (at least) to enter all the data into the spreadsheet.
I think i will just stick with the original method.
If it's automated, the number crunching should be done in seconds.

Do they actually say what the Best time is on the sportinglife site? If you look at the dropdown form I can't see any figure matching and uite a few recent times even below the best :? Only looking at random at trap 6 Havana Tonto in the 19:33 Newcastle Best: 29.59sLast: 30.25s last is fine but it ran 29.43 in September and 29.59 hasn't been more recent than sept
Archery1969
Posts: 3192
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

spreadbetting wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:03 pm
ilovepizza82 wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:58 am
Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:28 pm
Hi,

I dont think its straying that much from the original post.

What i am looking at his including ALL races with x time difference but having some additional automated rules being met before opening a trade.

Today that would have given around 72 selections but i expect around half will not meet the additional rules.

However out of those 35 or so selections i am expecting 70% to return a 10% profit per race. That maybe an overestimate but its all good fun. :)

Cheers for now,
How do you manage to input all the data with your new approach ? Its EXTREMELY time consuming !
I dont think it would take me less than 2 hours (at least) to enter all the data into the spreadsheet.
I think i will just stick with the original method.
If it's automated, the number crunching should be done in seconds.

Do they actually say what the Best time is on the sportinglife site? If you look at the dropdown form I can't see any figure matching and uite a few recent times even below the best :? Only looking at random at trap 6 Havana Tonto in the 19:33 Newcastle Best: 29.59sLast: 30.25s last is fine but it ran 29.43 in September and 29.59 hasn't been more recent than sept
The forum member that automated it for me is taking ALL relevant race times for each selection, not just Best / Last as was in the original post. This makes it much more accurate for past performance. However, it doesnt mean the dog will run the same again. But i am not interested in that as i am not straight backing or laying etc. Now, to answer a previous question that punters wont bother doing that and therefore the price may not shorten due to heavy backing, what i have found is that in most cases this throws up the best dog in the race and likewise SL, RP and TF have it in their forecast pick, so it will be naturally backed anyway. Also as i mentioned previously i have a few additional rules which must be met before i actually open a BTL or LTB.

Cheers,
Archery1969
Posts: 3192
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Absolute trading madness between T1 and T5. Lucky to get out alive. :o
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StellaBot
Posts: 818
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

I once created a spreadsheet for 1 greyhound track
Manually inputted over 2000 races
distance name, trap, weight, position at each bend ,comments, price,estimated time

Is there anyone on here that can "scrape" i think is word
distance ,name ,comment and estimated(or winning time) into spreadsheet?
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

If you can do it manually you can do it automated unless the site has mechanisms in place to try to stop scraping but even then it hard to top people scraping
Archery1969
Posts: 3192
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Many sites hide the data.

Load up the betfair greyhound form and then open the page source. The data you see on the screen is not in the source.

However, I believe it can be done but you need to know JavaScript. Off the shelf scrapers won’t work.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

I'm sure all modern langauages are able to do client side scraping to render any javascript into html or have add on packages available.
Archery1969
Posts: 3192
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

All loaded up for tomorrow. :D
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