Greyhound Mystique

[ShaunWhite]

Cheers Peter, just when I'm starting to get some things ticked off on my todo list, here you go reminding me that there's things I haven't remember to add to it yet. I quite fancy doing another Udemy course (I learned c# on there) and stats is something I feel especially weak on yet it's such a fundamental part of almost everything we do. Nice idea, thanks.

[PeterLe]

Yep, if you position it with the wife Shaun, you can pass it off as work too, so it gets you out of doing those odd jobs around the house!

[sa7med]

Yep, if you position it with the wife Shaun, you can pass it off as work too, so it gets you out of doing those odd jobs around the house!

probably most quantum leaps caused by trying to avoid jobs around the house

[Bog]

Always worth holding onto value when you can get it

Can you give an example SB? If I'm matched at 7.00 and dog steam to 5.00 BSP, it's good value worth holding onto? How about only 6.00 BSP?
Very good liquidity today, some races with 50k+ matched

If you look at the data then you'll see that over a very large sample BSP is sort of, just about, near enough, right. So you're not gaining anything by closing at BSP vs letting it run except for a less volatile balance on a 'typical' dog. The additional trick SB and others might be pulling off re value, is identifing where BSP isn't correct for that specific runner, and then making a judgement about whether closing or running is better.

As with all trading, you need to find, or develop the skills to make a reasonably accurate assessment of fair value both in the moment and for a given point in the future. You ask if 5.00 or 6.00 would be fair value, well maybe you could look at how the market traded and come to a conclusion? Ask yourself questions like, where did most of the money change hands, and when, and where was the VPOC or VWAP and how did they move? A fair price might have been 5.00 or 6.00, or it could have been 4.00 or 9.00. Or it could have been the 7.00 you entered at. Finding the answer to what a fair price is is the most challenging thing in trading imo and would fill a book rather than a posting, and it's also the knowledge that unlocks the profits so it's unlikely you'll be given or stumble across the answer. Tbh the answer could take several days to fully explain and years to master the realtime execution. Guys like SB didn't get as good as they are without 000s of hours thinking about stuff like that and finding a solution that works and works for their style of trading. Every trader probably has their own slightly different way of doing it depending on the tech they use and their own style of execution, what works for one might not work for someone else.

I'm sure SB will correct me if I've made any wildly inaccurate assumptions about him being able to assess fair value for a specific selection/market to boost his pre-race position.

Cheers Shaun, nice explanation about the thinking behind the odds.

Also Peter post was interesting about simulation and testing.

[jimibt]

Yep, if you position it with the wife Shaun, you can pass it off as work too, so it gets you out of doing those odd jobs around the house!

probably most quantum leaps caused by trying to avoid jobs around the house

no need to feel sorry for me, BUT, my wife is a teacher and will be around most of the time between now and end of august. she is an amazing motivator, so not sure how much *development* time i'm likely to get over the next few weeks (months!! ) - lol

i may need to self-isolate

[spreadbetting]

Can you give an example SB? If I'm matched at 7.00 and dog steam to 5.00 BSP, it's good value worth holding onto? How about only 6.00 BSP?
Very good liquidity today, some races with 50k+ matched

If you look at the data then you'll see that over a very large sample BSP is sort of, just about, near enough, right. So you're not gaining anything by closing at BSP vs letting it run except for a less volatile balance on a 'typical' dog. The additional trick SB and others might be pulling off re value, is identifing where BSP isn't correct for that specific runner, and then making a judgement about whether closing or running is better.

As with all trading, you need to find, or develop the skills to make a reasonably accurate assessment of fair value both in the moment and for a given point in the future. You ask if 5.00 or 6.00 would be fair value, well maybe you could look at how the market traded and come to a conclusion? Ask yourself questions like, where did most of the money change hands, and when, and where was the VPOC or VWAP and how did they move? A fair price might have been 5.00 or 6.00, or it could have been 4.00 or 9.00. Or it could have been the 7.00 you entered at. Finding the answer to what a fair price is is the most challenging thing in trading imo and would fill a book rather than a posting, and it's also the knowledge that unlocks the profits so it's unlikely you'll be given or stumble across the answer. Tbh the answer could take several days to fully explain and years to master the realtime execution. Guys like SB didn't get as good as they are without 000s of hours thinking about stuff like that and finding a solution that works and works for their style of trading. Every trader probably has their own slightly different way of doing it depending on the tech they use and their own style of execution, what works for one might not work for someone else.

I'm sure SB will correct me if I've made any wildly inaccurate assumptions about him being able to assess fair value for a specific selection/market to boost his pre-race position.

Cheers Shaun, nice explanation about the thinking behind the odds.

Also Peter post was interesting about simulation and testing.

Everyone's posts have pretty much covered it , Bog, the point I was making is don't be too hasty to close as you may simply be giving away all the value you've worked hard to get. With bots it's not that easy to spot the most opportune moment to close so sometimes best just to take the value betting approach.

[spreadbetting]

Yep, if you position it with the wife Shaun, you can pass it off as work too, so it gets you out of doing those odd jobs around the house!

probably most quantum leaps caused by trying to avoid jobs around the house

no need to feel sorry for me, BUT, my wife is a teacher and will be around most of the time between now and end of august. she is an amazing motivator, so not sure how much *development* time i'm likely to get over the next few weeks (months!! ) - lol

i may need to self-isolate

I'm in the same boat , jim, at least they're considered key workers so might get to queue jump

[jimibt]

probably most quantum leaps caused by trying to avoid jobs around the house

no need to feel sorry for me, BUT, my wife is a teacher and will be around most of the time between now and end of august. she is an amazing motivator, so not sure how much *development* time i'm likely to get over the next few weeks (months!! ) - lol

i may need to self-isolate

I'm in the same boat , jim, at least they're considered key workers so might get to queue jump

... every cloud 'n all that

[Bog]

Everyone's posts have pretty much covered it , Bog, the point I was making is don't be too hasty to close as you may simply be giving away all the value you've worked hard to get. With bots it's not that easy to spot the most opportune moment to close so sometimes best just to take the value betting approach.

Cheers SB. Yes, all the answers have been very helpful.

[ShaunWhite]

Yep, if you position it with the wife Shaun, you can pass it off as work too, so it gets you out of doing those odd jobs around the house!

I've got it covered. Unless I'm watching music videos on YouTube I can pass off almost anything as work, even then I'm just waiting for an Excel calc to finish The problems only start when my arse leaves the office chair.

[wearthefoxhat]

Yep, if you position it with the wife Shaun, you can pass it off as work too, so it gets you out of doing those odd jobs around the house!

I've got it covered. Unless I'm watching music videos on YouTube I can pass off almost anything as work, even then I'm just waiting for an Excel calc to finish The problems only start when my arse leaves the office chair.

There's a solution for that...

chair.png

[wearthefoxhat]

Quite a few over the £60k volume figure traded today. Give it a week, the £100k could be breached.

[sniffer66]

Yep, if you position it with the wife Shaun, you can pass it off as work too, so it gets you out of doing those odd jobs around the house!

I've got it covered. Unless I'm watching music videos on YouTube I can pass off almost anything as work, even then I'm just waiting for an Excel calc to finish The problems only start when my arse leaves the office chair.

Haha. I'm the same, my wife thinks BA is my infrastructure monitoring software . Peters voice is a bit of a giveaway though - probably best I change that

A little bit of progress made on the bot today. Came away up on practice mode, now for low, real money

[wearthefoxhat]

Last few have hit the £70k volume traded.

volume.png

[Archery1969]

Last few have hit the £70k volume traded.


volume.png

This has got to be great news for greyhound industry and traders.

Hopefully it continues when this virus stuff finally comes to an end.