Motorsport - Formula One

Any markets not covered in the other boards
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Euler
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Ever since I watched testing a few years ago and picked up a superb trade I keep an eye on the pre-season testing.

This is a very good piece of analysis: -

Number crunching gives early F1 form guide - http://bbc.in/14Of0Cs
Consty1
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

I follow it closely myself. Had a good few profitable trades last season and have already entered the markets in a couple of spots for this season.

The link you posted has reaffirmed my strategy at least.
Consty1
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

On the eve of first practice I think it's safe to say it's pretty wide open, just a shame the race is on very early morning, not sure I've got the discipline to get up especially with Sky+.

I've got an idea how I might approach the markets prior to practice, think it'll involve dutching of some sort.
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mugsgame
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Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

I trade F1 and have had excellent success. My trading is usually based around the start and what happens on the 1st 10 laps. There are some mental prices available to back and lay. It's a question of understanding what strategy the teams have relative to their pace.
Weather conditions are a good opportunity too. If the leader is 40 seconds clear and it's about to become a wet race anything can happen.

I have had some outrageous trades over the years. I think this my favourite sport to bet on.
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mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

I trade F1 and have had excellent success. My trading is usually based around the start and what happens on the 1st 10 laps. There are some mental prices available to back and lay. It's a question of understanding what strategy the teams have relative to their pace.
Weather conditions are a good opportunity too. If the leader is 40 seconds clear and it's about to become a wet race anything can happen.

I have had some outrageous trades over the years. I think this my favourite sport to bet on.
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mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

I trade F1 and have had excellent success. My trading is usually based around the start and what happens on the 1st 10 laps. There are some mental prices available to back and lay. It's a question of understanding what strategy the teams have relative to their pace.
Weather conditions are a good opportunity too. If the leader is 40 seconds clear and it's about to become a wet race anything can happen.

I have had some outrageous trades over the years. I think this my favourite sport to bet on.
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Consty1 wrote:On the eve of first practice I think it's safe to say it's pretty wide open, just a shame the race is on very early morning, not sure I've got the discipline to get up especially with Sky+.

I've got an idea how I might approach the markets prior to practice, think it'll involve dutching of some sort.
Hi Consty
I would have thought bookmaking would be better than dutching. I dont mean the whole field, just the leader as they come under a certain price?
Its just my preference but I tend to trade a lot of these markets like this with good results, ie Golf etc
When I say lay the leader I would lay/back many times (maybe with a bot). When you get to the point where you're green is equal or greater than your liability its all upside at that point.
In the early stage as Steve has mentioned, you should be able to get half a dozen of these trades in and cover your liability.
To take it one stage further, using an excel spreadsheet, as your liability is covered you could have a simple calculation that increases the stake proportionally, like a ratchet.
Think I've talked myself into having a go now! If it doesn't clash with the racing, might have a crack at it!
regards
Peter
Consty1
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

Cheers for the advice Peter, a lot to get my head around there, good stuff!

I've traded the leader with a similar approach before but looking for one or two larger swings and simply just greening up. Looking to trade certain runners around the first pit window can create some erratic price swings as well with different teams implementing different strategies.

I probably won't trade the race but with it being so open I think there could be some dutching opportunities looking to exit before the race.
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Euler
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McLaren have work to do - Button http://bbc.in/YvAXAP
Consty1
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

It actually seems to have played out as testing went with Mercedes and Lotus having a fast package, Ferrari seeing slight improvements and McLaren taking steps back.

Still very very early days yet though.
Consty1
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

Annoyed I didn't get up to trade this now. There was a couple of times last season where I profited on a improvised Raikonnen strategy and I'm confident I'd have picked up on it this race as well in real time.

On to Malaysia next anyway which usually presents it's own extreme challenges (namely the changeable weather).
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

On 11 of the 17 Australian Grand Prix the winner goes on to win the championship.
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Euler
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freddy
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Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 8:22 pm

Got very lucky today, backed Vettel for the win as i assumed he would get by Webber in the pits or at some point towards the end,

Didn't expect him to completely ignore team orders like that through, got to feel sorry for Webber there.
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Euler
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LOL on Hamilton when he tried to pit at McLaren.
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