NBA betting (trying my luck)

Any markets not covered in the other boards
Post Reply
oddictus
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:11 am

not new to betting, i just don't bet that often but will try my luck this time.

Golden State Warriors vs Indiana Pacers
Over 197.5 @ 1.88 odds
Bet: 35 quid

Chicago Bulls vs Los Angeles Lakers
Under 197 @ 1.88 odds
Bet: 30

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Dallas Mavericks
Mavs -2 @ 1.88 odds
Bet: 30

And of course...
West Bromwich Albion vs Everton
Everton -0.50 @ 2.05 odds
Bet: 35
User avatar
kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

Good for you to bare your soul!!

Dunno about your footie but NBA over/unders aint gonna make an income without in play hussle. Even despite the premium charge fuck up there's still enough stateside money to ensure those thresholds are set PERFECTLY to make losers of any traders buying around the 2.0 zone
User avatar
kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

oddictus wrote:not new to betting, i just don't bet that often but will try my luck this time.

Golden State Warriors vs Indiana Pacers
Over 197.5 @ 1.88 odds
Bet: 35 quid

Chicago Bulls vs Los Angeles Lakers
Under 197 @ 1.88 odds
Bet: 30

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Dallas Mavericks
Mavs -2 @ 1.88 odds
Bet: 30
1 from 3 on your basketball +26-30-35 = -39

but don't give up. As I say, the NBA Over/Under markets are very finely calibrated in the states. You have to trade them in play, in my experience. You can usually get an Over position at 2.0 ish and this often tightens into 1.5 just because somebody sneezes on the court!! Once the under's go to 1.1 they don't come back very often

Cheers
oddictus
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:11 am

got burned, lol. backed off a bit and settled for moneyline for half my usual stake instead. all won with Heat, OKC and Nets at a woefully low odds. :oops: will be back for inplay.
oddictus
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:11 am

kelpie wrote:
oddictus wrote:not new to betting, i just don't bet that often but will try my luck this time.

Golden State Warriors vs Indiana Pacers
Over 197.5 @ 1.88 odds
Bet: 35 quid

Chicago Bulls vs Los Angeles Lakers
Under 197 @ 1.88 odds
Bet: 30

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Dallas Mavericks
Mavs -2 @ 1.88 odds
Bet: 30
As I say, the NBA Over/Under markets are very finely calibrated in the states.
Cheers
how so? i'd appreciate if you could expound more on this. thanks mate.
User avatar
kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

oddictus wrote:how so? i'd appreciate if you could expound more on this. thanks mate.
Most NBA games happen during dark o'clock in Europe, unless you're a hopeless nightowl like me :lol:

I'd say virtually all the significant nba moneyline is driven by stateside cash and they can call final scores pretty well, in play, in my experience. i wouldn't like to run against them too often

the over/under SP are almost always nailed to the 1.9/2.1 split - same on Pinnacle as betfair. So Da Man reckons there's no more than a 50/50 chance!!

like I say, the only way to nail o/u is trade out in play.

Cheers. Post your next NBA trades here!!
User avatar
kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

Oddictus> following on re NBA over/under markets

Thought you'd be interested. I tallied today's NBA O/U markets; and would you believe... over wins = 6 and unders = 7.

Talk about predicting PERFECTLY. A bang on 50/50 split; someone somwewhere is VERY good at setting these O/U scores. Needless to say, there's nay chance of profiting unless you go in play

The results:

Lakers-Orlando. 206.5 points. Over wins.
Toronto-Philadelphia. 206.5 points. Under.
NY-Charlotte. 186.5. Over.
Dallas-Brooklyn. 200.5. Under.
Milwaukee-Cleveland. 195.5. Under.
New Orleans-Detroit. 202.5. Over
Oklahoma-Boston. 198.5. Under
San Antonio-Boston. 208.5. Under
Clippers-Chicago. 193.5. Over.
Memphis-Houston. 198.5. Under
Washington-Phoenix. 207.5. Under
Indiana-Sacramento. 196.5. Over
Minnesota-Golden State. 208.5. Over



As a sidenote, the liquidity in O/U is way down this season. Some of the NBA markets are now sub 5k matched and it won't be long before some won't exist.

When betfair was a proper exchange NBA over/unders were often six figure markets. Probably some Einstein in Hammersmith is looking at this and thinking, shit, what have I done... *sigh*
oddictus
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:11 am

kelpie wrote:Oddictus> following on re NBA over/under markets

Thought you'd be interested. I tallied today's NBA O/U markets; and would you believe... over wins = 6 and unders = 7.

Talk about predicting PERFECTLY. A bang on 50/50 split; someone somwewhere is VERY good at setting these O/U scores. Needless to say, there's nay chance of profiting unless you go in play

The results:

Lakers-Orlando. 206.5 points. Over wins.
Toronto-Philadelphia. 206.5 points. Under.
NY-Charlotte. 186.5. Over.
Dallas-Brooklyn. 200.5. Under.
Milwaukee-Cleveland. 195.5. Under.
New Orleans-Detroit. 202.5. Over
Oklahoma-Boston. 198.5. Under
San Antonio-Boston. 208.5. Under
Clippers-Chicago. 193.5. Over.
Memphis-Houston. 198.5. Under
Washington-Phoenix. 207.5. Under
Indiana-Sacramento. 196.5. Over
Minnesota-Golden State. 208.5. Over

As a sidenote, the liquidity in O/U is way down this season. Some of the NBA markets are now sub 5k matched and it won't be long before some won't exist.

When betfair was a proper exchange NBA over/unders were often six figure markets. Probably some Einstein in Hammersmith is looking at this and thinking, shit, what have I done... *sigh*
sorry wasn't able to check this account lately. got new tips? where you get the spreads (and odds), by the way?
Post Reply

Return to “Other Betfair Sports Trading markets”