Steven .. Your initial post re building several positions, was 100%.
The mkts I specialise in, has a mkt maker, definitely matching his own orders, and the way to combat it, is to leave orders, at 5,10,20 ticks under current mkt price.
If he wants to sweep, then, I don't mind .. Sure u are exposed, but, u have value.
I will do a longer answer to the original question, when I have access to a keyboard.
Market manipulation on Betfair
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RalfusDawes
- Posts: 24
- Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:09 pm
1) Yes, (10)
2) I mostly trade horses, so can only comment on this market. I often notice spoof orders, sometimes large and lasting a second, usually smaller and pushing or holding one side of the market. I'm also noticing large orders left in the lay side of the market, sometimes in-play. As the money isn't removed, or moved to get better value as prices fluctuate, my gut instinct is that it's money dumped by a bookie. Coincidentally, I noticed this in the Betfair app directory: https://apps.betfair.com/commercial/xc-epos/
3) As I've just started dipping my toes back into trading after a break, my confidence has been knocked a little. I'm not sure if there is more manipulation now, or if I'm just rustier than I thought, but it does put me off. Although I enjoy the challenge of learning and adapting to market changes, and finding new opportunities, I have to ask myself the question: do I continue to trade manipulated markets, or go back to basics, and concentrate on advantage betting and value bets? Might be less profit, but less stress too, and more free time.
4) Does Betfair care? No. If enough of the 'small fry' like myself got scared away and liquidity dropped noticeably, would they care? Probably not, they could just increase the PC to compensate.
2) I mostly trade horses, so can only comment on this market. I often notice spoof orders, sometimes large and lasting a second, usually smaller and pushing or holding one side of the market. I'm also noticing large orders left in the lay side of the market, sometimes in-play. As the money isn't removed, or moved to get better value as prices fluctuate, my gut instinct is that it's money dumped by a bookie. Coincidentally, I noticed this in the Betfair app directory: https://apps.betfair.com/commercial/xc-epos/
3) As I've just started dipping my toes back into trading after a break, my confidence has been knocked a little. I'm not sure if there is more manipulation now, or if I'm just rustier than I thought, but it does put me off. Although I enjoy the challenge of learning and adapting to market changes, and finding new opportunities, I have to ask myself the question: do I continue to trade manipulated markets, or go back to basics, and concentrate on advantage betting and value bets? Might be less profit, but less stress too, and more free time.
4) Does Betfair care? No. If enough of the 'small fry' like myself got scared away and liquidity dropped noticeably, would they care? Probably not, they could just increase the PC to compensate.
My theory is that some traders (probably in house traders), have leveraged access to BF exchange markets.
Wouldn't be surprised if they got idea from forex brokers who offer 1:50 or 1:200 leverage. That gives impression of much higher liquidity. Add self matching to that as well.
That could explain why even major festival markets are much jumpier than previously.
Wouldn't be surprised if they got idea from forex brokers who offer 1:50 or 1:200 leverage. That gives impression of much higher liquidity. Add self matching to that as well.
That could explain why even major festival markets are much jumpier than previously.
Market manipulation on Betfair
Postby Euler » Mon Jun 13, 2016 3:32 pm
I want to canvas traders on their views on market manipulation on Betfair.
(1) Do you think that market manipulation happens on the markets?
10 .. Manipulation is happening all the time.
There are traders who have models, and want to push a mkt a certain way. Just how much they want to push it, becos they want to 'get on', and how much, becos they want to trap weaker traders, is debatable. On balance, I would give them the benefit of the doubt, and say mkt manipulation, as a bad thing, happens less than u would think.
(2) What form do you think manipulation takes? I.e. can you describe it?
The MM typically offers large chucks of volume, within a v tight spread. If u try and trap him .. By taking a large bite, he runs away for a bit, before coming back.
(3) How does it affect your trading?
I think it helps. Matched liquidity numbers have gone thru the roof .. Which, may be a mirage, but, it still creates a platform, where traders can take v deep positions, and know, there is a point u can get out, if u really want to. Recently, the MM has been less aggressive .. In that the price maybe only, 5 ticks off, what seems right. In the past, , it was 10-15 ticks off, and stayed that way, for 2/3rds of the game. He never let u out.
(4) Do you think Betfair care about manipulation, what do you think they do about it?
Betfair seem a v odd company. One day .. Stories might be told. I wouldn't do it, in an open forum.
To gauge your strength of feeling it would be useful to score your views on each topic.
I.e. on a scale of 1-10, on the first topic - 10 is I think manipulation takes place all the time and 1 there is none. Then you can go onto to describe what you think on each topic.
Your views would be welcome
Postby Euler » Mon Jun 13, 2016 3:32 pm
I want to canvas traders on their views on market manipulation on Betfair.
(1) Do you think that market manipulation happens on the markets?
10 .. Manipulation is happening all the time.
There are traders who have models, and want to push a mkt a certain way. Just how much they want to push it, becos they want to 'get on', and how much, becos they want to trap weaker traders, is debatable. On balance, I would give them the benefit of the doubt, and say mkt manipulation, as a bad thing, happens less than u would think.
(2) What form do you think manipulation takes? I.e. can you describe it?
The MM typically offers large chucks of volume, within a v tight spread. If u try and trap him .. By taking a large bite, he runs away for a bit, before coming back.
(3) How does it affect your trading?
I think it helps. Matched liquidity numbers have gone thru the roof .. Which, may be a mirage, but, it still creates a platform, where traders can take v deep positions, and know, there is a point u can get out, if u really want to. Recently, the MM has been less aggressive .. In that the price maybe only, 5 ticks off, what seems right. In the past, , it was 10-15 ticks off, and stayed that way, for 2/3rds of the game. He never let u out.
(4) Do you think Betfair care about manipulation, what do you think they do about it?
Betfair seem a v odd company. One day .. Stories might be told. I wouldn't do it, in an open forum.
To gauge your strength of feeling it would be useful to score your views on each topic.
I.e. on a scale of 1-10, on the first topic - 10 is I think manipulation takes place all the time and 1 there is none. Then you can go onto to describe what you think on each topic.
Your views would be welcome
This has been going on for some time check the "bomber" thread. Relax! I've checked the forum for murderous nutters - there's none in here today (what do you mean - Look behind you!!!!)
An ordinary day in febuary and somebody slaps in 20k at 2.3 - look at the numbers above and below 2.3 and the WOMs at top and bottom an' an' an' 187k for the day so far etc. etc. I just had time to get a quick snip and got back to throwing pennies at this (whatever - if you can spot 'em it's ok! if not bummer??) It's the time bit that confuses me - these lumps of ready cash disappear faster than Paul Daniels(could) say "That's magic"
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PW i'm sure will know the answers to question 1-3 and probably asked the top people at Betfair about question number 4, this maybe the reason for this thread.LeTiss 4pm wrote:I am assuming btw, that the reason PW started this thread is because he himself is starting to see things, that in his opinion go against the historical effiency of BF markets
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Come on Hgoden and Peter. At least answer the questions you show an interest in as it's still open.
(1) Do you think that market manipulation happens on the markets?
10 - happens all the time.
(2) What form do you think manipulation takes? I.e. can you describe it?
What I have noticed of late is happening around the 7-8 price range. Money is offered way above the what is currently being traded i.e. where £200-£300 is the normal at that point on either side of the book then £2k-£3k will appear and disappear. This money money must be on a very short fill/kill(less than a second). The money then appears on the opposite side. Never gets matched on either side.
(3) How does it affect your trading?
5 - I try to ignore it now but it was so bad in one market I couldn't figure out what was going on.
(4) Do you think Betfair care about manipulation, what do you think they do about it?
0 - I have seen no evidence of it stopping so can only assume that no action is taken against those manipulating the price. If Betfair are taking action I have seen nothing to support this.
10 - happens all the time.
(2) What form do you think manipulation takes? I.e. can you describe it?
What I have noticed of late is happening around the 7-8 price range. Money is offered way above the what is currently being traded i.e. where £200-£300 is the normal at that point on either side of the book then £2k-£3k will appear and disappear. This money money must be on a very short fill/kill(less than a second). The money then appears on the opposite side. Never gets matched on either side.
(3) How does it affect your trading?
5 - I try to ignore it now but it was so bad in one market I couldn't figure out what was going on.
(4) Do you think Betfair care about manipulation, what do you think they do about it?
0 - I have seen no evidence of it stopping so can only assume that no action is taken against those manipulating the price. If Betfair are taking action I have seen nothing to support this.
Do you mean me? I want to let everybody have a clear say. Don't want to be seen to be steering the debate.steven1976 wrote:Come on Hgoden and Peter. At least answer the questions you show an interest in as it's still open.
1) Do you think that market manipulation happens on the markets?
10/10
(2) What form do you think manipulation takes? I.e. can you describe it?
a) Large sums sitting behind the current price in order to influence direction. Typically never matched and always moving in step with the price. Then reversing a little while later. Sometimes these are genuine sums but those behave differently and are eaten away until the price breaks through.
b) bots marching up and down the prices in illiquid markets and rapidly moving away and never matching punter offers
(3) How does it affect your trading?
50/50 sometimes intimidates so cut out for a loss yet other times go with it. Treat it as being part of the game.
(4) Do you think Betfair care about manipulation, what do you think they do about it?
No they don't care or do anything - nor should they.
Exchanges are a peer-to-peer betting platform that matches "offer" and "take" as is made clear in their T&Cs. Trading is not a service they offer directly and not even sure they recognize it officially - it is just two totally separate bets someone makes as far as they are concerned.
IMHO it is impossible to prove manipulation in peer-to-peer betting. The defence for any bet offered, including sums behind the current price, is that the offer is what the punter believed was a good bet based on the market structure and prices at that time. While such an offer may appear stupid it is impossible to prove that it is not a genuine offer by a mad punter.
200ms later their decision changed and they moved the money. Doing this is such hard work that they decided to use a computer to save them effort and implement their decisions. Oh, and that means they can leave it running automatically
It might be interesting to have a thread about ways in which speculative / manipulation bets could be stopped or their impact lessened by changing the exchange rules subtly eg unable to change/cancel a bet until it has been in the market for at least x amount of time might have an effect ?
10/10
(2) What form do you think manipulation takes? I.e. can you describe it?
a) Large sums sitting behind the current price in order to influence direction. Typically never matched and always moving in step with the price. Then reversing a little while later. Sometimes these are genuine sums but those behave differently and are eaten away until the price breaks through.
b) bots marching up and down the prices in illiquid markets and rapidly moving away and never matching punter offers
(3) How does it affect your trading?
50/50 sometimes intimidates so cut out for a loss yet other times go with it. Treat it as being part of the game.
(4) Do you think Betfair care about manipulation, what do you think they do about it?
No they don't care or do anything - nor should they.
Exchanges are a peer-to-peer betting platform that matches "offer" and "take" as is made clear in their T&Cs. Trading is not a service they offer directly and not even sure they recognize it officially - it is just two totally separate bets someone makes as far as they are concerned.
IMHO it is impossible to prove manipulation in peer-to-peer betting. The defence for any bet offered, including sums behind the current price, is that the offer is what the punter believed was a good bet based on the market structure and prices at that time. While such an offer may appear stupid it is impossible to prove that it is not a genuine offer by a mad punter.
200ms later their decision changed and they moved the money. Doing this is such hard work that they decided to use a computer to save them effort and implement their decisions. Oh, and that means they can leave it running automatically
It might be interesting to have a thread about ways in which speculative / manipulation bets could be stopped or their impact lessened by changing the exchange rules subtly eg unable to change/cancel a bet until it has been in the market for at least x amount of time might have an effect ?
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
foxwood wrote
"No they don't care or do anything - nor should they.
Exchanges are a peer-to-peer betting platform that matches "offer" and "take" as is made clear in their T&Cs. Trading is not a service they offer directly and not even sure they recognize it officially - it is just two totally separate bets someone makes as far as they are concerned."
The problem is when it is no longer peer2peer and tricks are used to create an illusion of something happening. If it was an exchange in the real world it would be illegal to use flash trades. Those doing it would argue that it creates liquidity which it would do in the short term but if it kills any new smaller traders, does it help the long term growth of the exchange when BF are not pointing new customers to the exchange?
"No they don't care or do anything - nor should they.
Exchanges are a peer-to-peer betting platform that matches "offer" and "take" as is made clear in their T&Cs. Trading is not a service they offer directly and not even sure they recognize it officially - it is just two totally separate bets someone makes as far as they are concerned."
The problem is when it is no longer peer2peer and tricks are used to create an illusion of something happening. If it was an exchange in the real world it would be illegal to use flash trades. Those doing it would argue that it creates liquidity which it would do in the short term but if it kills any new smaller traders, does it help the long term growth of the exchange when BF are not pointing new customers to the exchange?
Was hoping to give you and hgodden a nudge for a view as sometimes we don't always get your views on these things and then the topic dies off. I know hgodden was unhappy with what was happening some time ago and was ready to go John Rambo on BF, so would be good to hear his views also.Euler wrote:steven1976 wrote:
Come on Hgoden and Peter. At least answer the questions you show an interest in as it's still open.
Do you mean me? I want to let everybody have a clear say. Don't want to be seen to be steering the debate.
It would not be fair to whisper that a competitor to Betangel has also noticed this is going on but .....
Trading on Betfair: How to win money when high stakes punters flood the market
When the big money comes in you can make easy profit
At certain times of the year, some Betfair punters make huge bets which move markets. Caan Berry explains how to take advantage when this happens, using Geeks Toy software...
Share this article
"Knowing when one of these bets is genuine is the hard part, but from there on in it can be some of the easiest short-term profit around."
Caan Berry
Published: 11 September 2014 0 Comments
If you've been actively trading on Betfair recently you may have noticed some rather large genuine bets going into the racing markets.
I'm not talking about those 'stakes' that are designed just to manipulate prices but actual 'genuine' punts, risking up to £20,000.
It can become rather confusing to spot the difference between the two although, after a couple of races with the same thing happening, it can become more obvious.
This kind of behaviour presents an opportunity to place a bet in-front of the big money, knowing it's about to shift the entire market (providing there is still a large portion of the bet unmatched).
Knowing when one of these bets is genuine is the hard part, but from there on in it can be some of the easiest short-term profit around."
I put the date in bold letters ...for some reason.
The link is on the secret betfair site (My apologies no Area 51 theories )
https://betting.betfair.com/betfair-ann ... 4-710.html
Trading on Betfair: How to win money when high stakes punters flood the market
When the big money comes in you can make easy profit
At certain times of the year, some Betfair punters make huge bets which move markets. Caan Berry explains how to take advantage when this happens, using Geeks Toy software...
Share this article
"Knowing when one of these bets is genuine is the hard part, but from there on in it can be some of the easiest short-term profit around."
Caan Berry
Published: 11 September 2014 0 Comments
If you've been actively trading on Betfair recently you may have noticed some rather large genuine bets going into the racing markets.
I'm not talking about those 'stakes' that are designed just to manipulate prices but actual 'genuine' punts, risking up to £20,000.
It can become rather confusing to spot the difference between the two although, after a couple of races with the same thing happening, it can become more obvious.
This kind of behaviour presents an opportunity to place a bet in-front of the big money, knowing it's about to shift the entire market (providing there is still a large portion of the bet unmatched).
Knowing when one of these bets is genuine is the hard part, but from there on in it can be some of the easiest short-term profit around."
I put the date in bold letters ...for some reason.
The link is on the secret betfair site (My apologies no Area 51 theories )
https://betting.betfair.com/betfair-ann ... 4-710.html
1) Do you think that market manipulation happens on the markets?
Yes
(2) What form do you think manipulation takes? I.e. can you describe it?
The markets themselves arent manipulated so much in terms of a price being a large percentage away from where it should be or anything like that.
The manipulation is of people, traders. Building bots that dominate most of the unmatched money on several prices and then smashing through traders orders that arent its own and trying to force them to close for a loss. Creating false impressions in the market to lure traders in and then ramping the other way. Deeply studying trader's behaviours to take advantage of them. Pushing against their orders making it as difficult as possible for them to close.
(3) How does it affect your trading?
(4) Do you think Betfair care about manipulation, what do you think they do about it?
Nothing unless it affected their jobs somehow.
The irony is that since PC3 came in it is much easier for an individual with lots of money and know how to dominate much of the markets and other participants here, as it has created a situation where 'they' don't have to hedge all their bets (while normal traders do) as this just creates bumpy P and L's for them over several accounts which will then increase their commissions to the point where they can avoid paying PC.
So in practical terms (especially late on in the markets where most of the real money is being bet) if you put an order in on the wrong runner and the 'market' smashes through you (or rather the person responsible smashes through you) then you can either close for a loss (and the bigger the stake the further away the price will be pushed, although this is by no means limited to large stakes, even small ones are pushed against) then as a trader you can either hedge for a loss (what we're supposed to do right?
) or let the bet stand, whereas on the other side the manipulators bot is happy either way, either it has forced your order into hedging against it for an instant profit for itself or, if you dont hedge, then it doesnt care as the bet will just form part of its market making and such bets will even out over time generating more commission for it.
When the PC came in betfair (rightly in my opinion) put in a measure so that successful gamblers wouldn't have to pay it (and they would identify that by how topsy turvy a P and L is - a gamblers P and L will be much more topsy turvy and thus generate large amounts of commissions, so betfair can see that and not make them pay PC which IMO is the right thing to do as to not discourage them.)
This loophole is being ruthlessly exploited, costing betfair and its shareholders God knows how much, and ironically increasing activity on betdaq and with other bookies as all sorts of people (not just above) look to arb between exchanges and with bookies to generate commissions. It beggars belief that people within betfair will respond to certain individuals who moan about the PC with 'just increase your commissions then'.
Ultimately manipulation takes many forms and while betfair don't stop it happening they are not the ones doing it. Aside from the over round bot they have (which a monkey could handle), they don't trade or make the markets; they don't have the skill, knowledge or personnel to do such a complex thing and are happy for others to take the risk while they take the commission.
I take it this is actually going to betfair rather than just some sort of debate? I have no appetite for debate and I'm not the sort of person to join a rape victims support group...
Yes
(2) What form do you think manipulation takes? I.e. can you describe it?
The markets themselves arent manipulated so much in terms of a price being a large percentage away from where it should be or anything like that.
The manipulation is of people, traders. Building bots that dominate most of the unmatched money on several prices and then smashing through traders orders that arent its own and trying to force them to close for a loss. Creating false impressions in the market to lure traders in and then ramping the other way. Deeply studying trader's behaviours to take advantage of them. Pushing against their orders making it as difficult as possible for them to close.
(3) How does it affect your trading?
(4) Do you think Betfair care about manipulation, what do you think they do about it?
Nothing unless it affected their jobs somehow.
The irony is that since PC3 came in it is much easier for an individual with lots of money and know how to dominate much of the markets and other participants here, as it has created a situation where 'they' don't have to hedge all their bets (while normal traders do) as this just creates bumpy P and L's for them over several accounts which will then increase their commissions to the point where they can avoid paying PC.
So in practical terms (especially late on in the markets where most of the real money is being bet) if you put an order in on the wrong runner and the 'market' smashes through you (or rather the person responsible smashes through you) then you can either close for a loss (and the bigger the stake the further away the price will be pushed, although this is by no means limited to large stakes, even small ones are pushed against) then as a trader you can either hedge for a loss (what we're supposed to do right?
) or let the bet stand, whereas on the other side the manipulators bot is happy either way, either it has forced your order into hedging against it for an instant profit for itself or, if you dont hedge, then it doesnt care as the bet will just form part of its market making and such bets will even out over time generating more commission for it.When the PC came in betfair (rightly in my opinion) put in a measure so that successful gamblers wouldn't have to pay it (and they would identify that by how topsy turvy a P and L is - a gamblers P and L will be much more topsy turvy and thus generate large amounts of commissions, so betfair can see that and not make them pay PC which IMO is the right thing to do as to not discourage them.)
This loophole is being ruthlessly exploited, costing betfair and its shareholders God knows how much, and ironically increasing activity on betdaq and with other bookies as all sorts of people (not just above) look to arb between exchanges and with bookies to generate commissions. It beggars belief that people within betfair will respond to certain individuals who moan about the PC with 'just increase your commissions then'.
Ultimately manipulation takes many forms and while betfair don't stop it happening they are not the ones doing it. Aside from the over round bot they have (which a monkey could handle), they don't trade or make the markets; they don't have the skill, knowledge or personnel to do such a complex thing and are happy for others to take the risk while they take the commission.
I take it this is actually going to betfair rather than just some sort of debate? I have no appetite for debate and I'm not the sort of person to join a rape victims support group...