Premium Charge question

News, chat and debate about the Betfair betting exchange.
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Dallas
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:41 pm
I've asked a close friend on benefit, who doesn't gamble if I can set up a PayPal and series of bookie accounts in his name and split the profits with him. I thought he'd jump at the chance but he gave me a clear no. Not that he doesn't trust me, but understandably he's concerned about the consequences of the DWP finding out about funds in his name not declared.

There are all sorts of things you won't think about but the person who's identity you want to borrow will. :)
You and Spreadbetting maybe connected via the same friend
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=18064&start=5
kiwidude
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Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 am

Thanks for all the replies. I understand what Euler means but I'm not sure how to actually achieve that, can anyone share some methods for consistently breaking even and generating commission?

As for using accounts in other peoples names, that's possible but I thought Betfair was very strict about this?
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Derek27
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kiwidude wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:40 am
As for using accounts in other peoples names, that's possible but I thought Betfair was very strict about this?
I wouldn't mess around with Betfair. It may be possible with bookies (never had the opportunity to try it) but Betfair being an exchange, have more data, algorithms and incentive to spot similar activity between accounts that could bypass premium charge.

One guy was reported to have £55K snatched out of his account by Betfair after they claimed they had evidence to link it to 4 other Betfair accounts. He was considering suing but I haven't heard anything in the news about it since.
kiwidude
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Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:41 am
kiwidude wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:40 am
As for using accounts in other peoples names, that's possible but I thought Betfair was very strict about this?
I wouldn't mess around with Betfair. It may be possible with bookies (never had the opportunity to try it) but Betfair being an exchange, have more data, algorithms and incentive to spot similar activity between accounts that could bypass premium charge.

One guy was reported to have £55K snatched out of his account by Betfair after they claimed they had evidence to link it to 4 other Betfair accounts. He was considering suing but I haven't heard anything in the news about it since.
Yep I've read that story so not keen on that idea at all.

I'm keen to learn how to generate more commission using break even methods I just don't really know how so any insight on how this is done would be awesome. By the way I'm a manual trader, I have no experience with bots or anything so I do apologise for my ignorance.
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BetScalper
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Have a look on your machine for IESNARE. It could be hidden.

Not sure if BetFair use it but book makers and poker sites do.

It allows them to monitor what you doing and what sites you visit.

If a poker site see’s that your visiting pokerbot sites then they assume your running some kind of automated system and will freeze your account and confiscate your balance.
Emmson
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I would have thought this was an ideal market to generate commission.
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Naffman
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How?
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jimibt
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Naffman wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:14 am
How?
yes, i'd think the difference between the two odds would have to be more asymmetrical PLUS offer a zero return that factored in the standard 5% commission.

that said, i may have read the OP incorrectly.
Emmson
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Naffman wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:14 am
How?

Euler/
Do what makes you money but diversify into other strategies that are break even to rack up some commission.
What could be more break even than heads or tails?
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Naffman
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Emmson wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:22 am
Naffman wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:14 am
How?

Euler/
Do what makes you money but diversify into other strategies that are break even to rack up some commission.
What could be more break even than heads or tails?
But you don't break even you're losing 5%

Try and find a system that breaks even after commission
Emmson
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Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

I'm assuming (though I have never payed close attention) you get your back matched above evens as no one is taking the evens or 1.99 on offer right now.
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Derek27
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Emmson wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:35 am
I'm assuming (though I have never payed close attention) you get your back matched above evens as no one is taking the evens or 1.99 on offer right now.
They don't appear to be taking anything with just £53 matched, which I think equates to £26.50. I can't imagine anyone laying a coin-toss at 2.02!
kiwidude
Posts: 8
Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 am

In the above example would I be backing the the toss @ $1.99 and laying it @ $2.02 for a small loss?

Lets say I backed the toss for $1000 @ $1.99 I would then lay the toss @ $2.02 for $985.15 for a guaranteed net loss of $14.85 according to the lay calculator I use.

Is that the correct method for doing so? And if so how much commission would this generate?
Wildly
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Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2012 7:31 am
Location: Australia

kiwidude wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:22 am
Is that the correct method for doing so? And if so how much commission would this generate?
Very little.

If you are trying to generate commission then don't back and lay on the one market. Do one or the other.

Your break-even strategy does not need to break even on any one market, just overall.

You could look to complimentary markets, which you mentioned for soccer. Otherwise just markets where you are getting near to or better than true value then the sum of all your activity on those markets should break even.

If you are in Premium Charge territory or heading for it, then backing or laying at or even slightly better than long-term true value price should be within your capabilities.
kiwidude
Posts: 8
Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 am

Wildly wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:11 am
kiwidude wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:22 am
Is that the correct method for doing so? And if so how much commission would this generate?
Very little.

If you are trying to generate commission then don't back and lay on the one market. Do one or the other.

Your break-even strategy does not need to break even on any one market, just overall.

You could look to complimentary markets, which you mentioned for soccer. Otherwise just markets where you are getting near to or better than true value then the sum of all your activity on those markets should break even.

If you are in Premium Charge territory or heading for it, then backing or laying at or even slightly better than long-term true value price should be within your capabilities.
Thanks for your reply, if I understand you correctly this strategy would basically rely on approximately 50% of bets winning and 50% losing, is that correct? I'm guessing there would be quite a bit of variance in this strategy though? For example backing something at true value of $1.70 odds is a lot different to laying something @ $4.40 odds true value, if I were eligible for PC I still may get slammed some weeks with the variance.

If you could provide a real world example that would be great, I do apologise for my ignorance but this stuff is quite hard for me to grasp without actual examples lol.
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