Another Premium Charge question!

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acecard
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So, after going through the charges page and getting confused multiple times, this is what I can surmise......I'm sure I have got some, if not most of this completely wrong, so if I have, please slap me and send me to my room! :lol:

1. It would seem (for people starting to think about this early on in their account life) that a decent way to minimise the effects of the PC long term would be to churn from the start, and on a manageable weekly basis so that you can scale accordingly and always maintain your commission amount. If you wait til you are in a large overall profit, you will be looking at quite a large amount of churning to make up the deficit. If managed this way, then the level of churning need not be so high as to need automation as it could potentially be done in a few relatively large bets on some weekly games. For example:

You win £1000 this week, have paid £50 in comms through your trading and have a bank of £10000; you need to make up a further £150 in comms through churning, meaning you need 1 win of £3000 (assuming 5% comm and ignoring implied comm for the sake of simplicity), or 2 wins of £1500, or 5 wins of £600 etc. You easily have the bank to do this, and don't need to spend too much effort doing it on loads of markets in a week. Doing this weekly and scaling accordingly will mean that you maintain your commission level. Even if you got to the point of earning 5 figures a month, this would be maintainable without too much work, using say big football matches on the weekend. Of course, you could automate this if you really wanted.

2. It would also seem that you are better off shooting to generate all your commission through churning, rather than waiting for BF to make up the difference as PC because all the calculations are based off of generated commission, not total charges (which is where the PC would be included). So, if total generated commission was 5%, I would pay 15% PC, but my generated comm would still only be 5%. If my total generated commission was 20% (through churning), I would pay no PC, generated comm would be 20%, and I would have the same net profit at the end.

3. You are also better off churning up to 20% rather than having BF take PC up to 20% because you will earn your baseline commission discount much quicker (PC deductions do not seem to be used in calculating your discount as it is based on generated commission, not total charges).

Then, when (or IF!) one got to the higher rates of PC, one would already be sitting at the lower 40% band as your commissions will have consistently been at 20%, and you should have accumulated enough BF points to get into the 2% baseline commission bracket that Euler was referring to. At that point, you could scale back churning to maintain just over 10% to stay at the 40% level and receive the rebate. This would put you at about 27% total commission in the higher bracket, taking into account the rebate.

How much of that did I get completely wrong?! :lol:
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PDC
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To complete your write up though I think it would be good if a few example churns. I don't think I have ever seen anyone do this, I am not sure why there seems such reluctance to give actual real world examples.
Last edited by PDC on Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek27
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acecard wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:15 pm
You win £1000 this week, have paid £50 in comms through your trading and have a bank of £10000; you need to make up a further £150 in comms through churning, meaning you need 1 win of £3000 (assuming 5% comm and ignoring implied comm for the sake of simplicity), or 2 wins of £1500, or 5 wins of £600 etc.
Winning another £3000 won't solve the problem because you would pay PC on that!

What you need to do is lose money, but win it back on a parallel market to break even.

Assuming you pay 5% commission and win all the time, only half the commission you pay counts towards PC as implied commission resulting in 17.5% PC on top of the commission you pay. This means that you have to lose about £81 for each £100 you win to avoid PC altogether, but just reducing your profit to loss ratio can reduce PC.
spreadbetting
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PDC wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:51 pm
To complete your write up though I think it would be good if a few example churns. I don't think I have ever seen anyone do this, I am not sure why there seems such reluctance to give actual real world examples.
Don't think there's any reluctance people just have their own particular markets they may churn through that throw up edges now and then.

Many sports will have outcomes that are effectively the same thing, if we take a pre off football match for example we can play off a 0-0 correct score back bet against many markets in the hope of finding a small arb or at worst a break even bet to generate comms. We can arb it against the Over/Under 0.5, Goal Lines, next goal you'll find most sports have derivative markets we can play either dripping in running or pre off. I know someone who plays the Asian markets against match odds simply because the volumes you get thru those markets at reasonable odds.

The problem for the 5%'ers is that they really need to be looking to get arbs because on a break even bet they'll only be credited 4% in comms when they actually paid 5%. A 3% comm payer will pay the 3% whereas a 2% payer will be credited with 2.5% so actually makes money with break even arbing up to their likely PC charges
Last edited by spreadbetting on Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Dallas
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Since the introduction of Stored values to advanced automation, it's now easy to link up markets with a simple bot just to churn away x-market
acecard
Posts: 85
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:13 pm
acecard wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:15 pm
You win £1000 this week, have paid £50 in comms through your trading and have a bank of £10000; you need to make up a further £150 in comms through churning, meaning you need 1 win of £3000 (assuming 5% comm and ignoring implied comm for the sake of simplicity), or 2 wins of £1500, or 5 wins of £600 etc.
Winning another £3000 won't solve the problem because you would pay PC on that!

What you need to do is lose money, but win it back on a parallel market to break even.

Assuming you pay 5% commission and win all the time, only half the commission you pay counts towards PC as implied commission resulting in 17.5% PC on top of the commission you pay. This means that you have to lose about £81 for each £100 you win to avoid PC altogether, but just reducing your profit to loss ratio can reduce PC.
Yeah, sorry I should've mentioned that when I wrote this, in my head I was thinking about churning with a breakeven strategy, so you win 3000, lose 3000. Not just gambling.
acecard
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:39 pm

Could someone please explain the rule "any win that makes up over 50% of your lifetime profits will not be used as part of the PC calculation"?

So, if I have profits for the week so far of £100 and I win £60 in one hit, clearly my PC for the week will only be calculated using the £100 gross profit. However, what happens after this? Are my gross profits now considered to be £160 for the week and therefore for a win to be excluded, it would be based on the £160, i.e. the win would have to be over £80. I'm talking about within the same week.

Any feedback much appreciated!
LinusP
Posts: 1873
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

acecard wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:56 pm
Could someone please explain the rule "any win that makes up over 50% of your lifetime profits will not be used as part of the PC calculation"?

So, if I have profits for the week so far of £100 and I win £60 in one hit, clearly my PC for the week will only be calculated using the £100 gross profit. However, what happens after this? Are my gross profits now considered to be £160 for the week and therefore for a win to be excluded, it would be based on the £160, i.e. the win would have to be over £80. I'm talking about within the same week.

Any feedback much appreciated!
It’s lifetime, not per week.
acecard
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:39 pm

LinusP wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:11 pm
acecard wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:56 pm
Could someone please explain the rule "any win that makes up over 50% of your lifetime profits will not be used as part of the PC calculation"?

So, if I have profits for the week so far of £100 and I win £60 in one hit, clearly my PC for the week will only be calculated using the £100 gross profit. However, what happens after this? Are my gross profits now considered to be £160 for the week and therefore for a win to be excluded, it would be based on the £160, i.e. the win would have to be over £80. I'm talking about within the same week.

Any feedback much appreciated!
It’s lifetime, not per week.
Yes, but what if your weekly profits were your lifetime profits?

£100 is a bad example, but I was just using arbitrary values. The context would be that you managed to arb out of BF successfully each week so that each week you always maintained a negative/minimal lifetime profit value but then had the occasional large win on the BF side.

Thanks
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Derek27
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Location: UK

acecard wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:56 pm
Could someone please explain the rule "any win that makes up over 50% of your lifetime profits will not be used as part of the PC calculation"?

So, if I have profits for the week so far of £100 and I win £60 in one hit, clearly my PC for the week will only be calculated using the £100 gross profit. However, what happens after this? Are my gross profits now considered to be £160 for the week and therefore for a win to be excluded, it would be based on the £160, i.e. the win would have to be over £80. I'm talking about within the same week.

Any feedback much appreciated!
The rule is there to exclude recreational players who lose but just happen to get a winning accumulator that wins £100K. It wouldn't be fair to take 20 grand of them.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

acecard wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:03 pm
LinusP wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:11 pm
acecard wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:56 pm
Could someone please explain the rule "any win that makes up over 50% of your lifetime profits will not be used as part of the PC calculation"?

So, if I have profits for the week so far of £100 and I win £60 in one hit, clearly my PC for the week will only be calculated using the £100 gross profit. However, what happens after this? Are my gross profits now considered to be £160 for the week and therefore for a win to be excluded, it would be based on the £160, i.e. the win would have to be over £80. I'm talking about within the same week.

Any feedback much appreciated!
It’s lifetime, not per week.
Yes, but what if your weekly profits were your lifetime profits?

£100 is a bad example, but I was just using arbitrary values. The context would be that you managed to arb out of BF successfully each week so that each week you always maintained a negative/minimal lifetime profit value but then had the occasional large win on the BF side.

Thanks
Your weekly profit can only equal your lifetime profit in the first week of trading. You're not considered for PC until you've traded 250 markets. Besides, you start with a £1000 allowance.
acecard
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:39 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:06 pm
acecard wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:03 pm
LinusP wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:11 pm


It’s lifetime, not per week.
Yes, but what if your weekly profits were your lifetime profits?

£100 is a bad example, but I was just using arbitrary values. The context would be that you managed to arb out of BF successfully each week so that each week you always maintained a negative/minimal lifetime profit value but then had the occasional large win on the BF side.

Thanks
Your weekly profit can only equal your lifetime profit in the first week of trading. You're not considered for PC until you've traded 250 markets. Besides, you start with a £1000 allowance.
But if you're like me and managed to accumulate a nice hole before things started making sense then you would be able to profit for a little while whilst still actually not being eligible for PC, wouldn't you? Because despite profiting, your lifetime profit would be negative.

I'm just trying to work out how the 50% win rule is applied to multiple big wins in a week.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

If your lifetime profit is negative you cannot possibly be charged PC. If you have a big win that brings you into profit the big win will account for more than 100% of your lifetime profit so you won't be eligible for PC.

Try experimenting with this PC calculator. Enter the weekly amounts in the right-hand columns and then click on 'close week'. You can enter a largest profit in cell B20.
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acecard
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:39 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:40 pm
If your lifetime profit is negative you cannot possibly be charged PC. If you have a big win that brings you into profit the big win will account for more than 100% of your lifetime profit so you won't be eligible for PC.

Try experimenting with this PC calculator. Enter the weekly amounts in the right-hand columns and then click on 'close week'. You can enter a largest profit in cell B20.
Thanks, will have a little play around with that in a minute.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

acecard wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:25 pm
But if you're like me and managed to accumulate a nice hole before things started making sense...
I see what you mean.

You're asking if you lose £1000 and over a period of time win it back so you're breaking even, and then in the next week you win £100, your lifetime profit is equal to your weekly profit.

In those circumstances, after losing and winning back £1K, the commission percentage that you generated will equal infinity, because you've been paying commission but haven't won anything, rather like paying tax on no earnings. You only pay premium charge if both, your lifetime commission and last week's commission is less than 20%, so you wouldn't be required to pay PC until you've won approximately four times as much commission as you've generated.
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