Overrounds

[Korattt]

Hi guys,

With the link below,

http://firedave.blogspot.co.uk/2010/04/ ... round.html

Am I right in saying that should the book move towards 100% and there be a clear favourite on offer that it could in fact be any horse (not necessarily the favourite) that is due to shorten in price and when the book goes out to say 100.6% (or over) on a six horse race then likewise.. any horse is due to drift and not necessarily the favourite..?

Thanks in advance

[oscar123]

If i've understood you correctly, then yes, it could be any horse whose price moves to adjust to any tightening or lengthening in the book percentage.

The prices will always hover around 100%, any slack in the book could be taken up by any of the runners, not necessarily just the favourite.

[Euler]

The book overround is a reflection on the prices in the market, that's about all. There are distortions in the market but generally a shortening price reduces the overround and a drifting prices increases it. But it's generally not a precursor to a move it's a reflection of a move.

[Korattt]

.. thanks people, so in a nutshell there's no point relying on the overround to move in towards 100% and base this as an indicator THEN look for a horse shortening to back say on a swing trade?

[Euler]

If the book moves from 105% to 100% then one or more runners must have drifted for that to occur.

If you want to understand the dynamics go into Bet Angel fire up the bookmaking and set the odds to manual and start pushing prices up and down.

[oscar123]

No, as Euler said its just the reflection of a move rather than the precursor to one.

Plus the prices move more or less in sync, one doesnt move out, then the other moves in, it tends to happen simultaneously.

[Korattt]

thank you guys