I didn't know where to put this one so I hope if useful it's found. Sometimes I have read people talk of 'trigger odds' or some other such label. It's where something has caused a concentration around certain odds ... Often it's referred to where decimal odds meet fractional odds or maybe where people are drawn to a round number as in 2.00 is favoured more than 1.96 or 2.04. I just thought people may be interested in the attached chart I recently produced when investigating a new in-running odds based backing system I am researching. The draw of the round number is soooo obvious ... not only does it spike high at each of 3.00, 4.00, 5.00, 6.00 and 7.00 but also it spikes low at 3.30, 4.30, 5.30, 6.30 ... amazing consistency. I'm not sure how this could/should be interpreted yet, it's hot off the press but it does suggest profit margins can maybe be improved by honing in on or avoiding the round digit odds! Just an observation to share.
Trigger Odds
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firlandsfarm
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- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
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amazingly, something I've been observing for some time too. A fellow forum member suggested that this is related to bookies hedging popular odds against the markets. There could be some truth in this as the evening races with lower liquidity show less of this pattern, thus I'm certain it's based on bookie shenanigans (plus savvy bots picking up on this - self fulfilling end game).
Also at an early stage on this and have not concluded whether lay 1st, back later or the reverse is the way to go here (I say this due to bookies primariliy laying the market, tho of course, they could also be backing it to pull a price down to reach their overround target!!)
Also at an early stage on this and have not concluded whether lay 1st, back later or the reverse is the way to go here (I say this due to bookies primariliy laying the market, tho of course, they could also be backing it to pull a price down to reach their overround target!!)
You've found the right place, and it is very useful firlandsfarm . And you too jimibt thank you very much both of you. I never thought of fractional odds. I thought people were being mad or greedy.firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:53 amI didn't know where to put this one so I hope if useful it's found.
remember too of course that when comparing backing at 5.3 and 4.3, you are only 3 ticks down to the round number. on odds of 3.3 and 2.3, the ticks are 6 and 15 respectively, so obviously, more mileage to be had at the lower odds (whether backing into or laying out of).
Am new to this forum and also fairly new to trading. I know this topic has been inactive for a while but could anyone clarify what’s being represented on the y axis? My initial thought was that it must be the amount of money matched but I don’t see how that could be negative.