Bet Angel for newbies / Getting started : Back CS draws, lay draw technique...profit GUARANTEED..."almost" (?)

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ilovepizza82
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:41 pm

Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:53 pm

Ive read somwhere someone using this technique where he backs 0-0,1-1,2-2 and lays draw.
Is it good technique ? How does he make it profitable ? He dutches 0-0, etc and then lays draw ? How does it exactly work ? How much would i have to lay ? Any examples would be very appreciated. Thanks for any replies in advance.

Ps. Ok I think i get it. I dutch all the cs draws and then wait a bit for either 0-0 to hold up or any other draw and then lay the draw after some time when the price is low...like below 2.0 (?) ? Am i right ? But i think the problem is when the score is 1-0 etc....hmmm.
Last edited by ilovepizza82 on Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:31 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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Euler
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Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:39 pm

If you do that you are basically backing and lay the draw at the same time. By avoiding 3-3 you are effectively laying 3-3, so not sure why you just wouldn't do that instead?

ilovepizza82
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:41 pm

Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:55 pm

Euler wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:39 pm
If you do that you are basically backing and lay the draw at the same time. By avoiding 3-3 you are effectively laying 3-3, so not sure why you just wouldn't do that instead?
To be honest with you this technique doesnt seem to work. I dont understand how the guy made it work coz if I (dutch) back 0-0 etc up to 2-2 risking for instance £10 and profit is £23 and then want to lay draw the liability before match starts is on avg. £25-30 to win £10 and very often it costs even more. So it cant work. No to mention if there is 1-0 or 0-1 etc. in play. And the guy claimed he used £100 to make £15-20 profit a day. I dont know much about trading and this kind of stuff so maybe Im doing something wrong here.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 1952
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:39 pm

ilovepizza82 wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:55 pm
To be honest with you this technique doesnt seem to work. I dont understand how the guy made it work
Where did you see it? Perhaps there's a detail we're not quite understanding.

It definitely won't be the case that backing/laying a certain combination of current odds will guarantee a profit. Many people run sophisticated systems looking for odds situations across different markets that guarantee a profit (aka arbitrage) and any money will be gone in the blink of an eye, returning the markets to a state of equilibrium. It would however be possible if you offered prices and they were taken, or perhaps by placing some of the bets inplay as the odds move.

There will as always be an element of risk/reward to consider. That is the very essence of trading rather than finding clever new ways to make a guaranteed profit. Some people spend a lifetime looking for loopholes in markets, be wary of anyone saying they have a get rich quick scheme or novel approach. Remember, an edge shared is usually an edge lost so question their motives too.

ilovepizza82
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:41 pm

Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:50 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:39 pm
ilovepizza82 wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:55 pm
To be honest with you this technique doesnt seem to work. I dont understand how the guy made it work
Where did you see it? Perhaps there's a detail we're not quite understanding.

It definitely won't be the case that backing/laying a certain combination of current odds will guarantee a profit. Many people run sophisticated systems looking for odds situations across different markets that guarantee a profit (aka arbitrage) and any money will be gone in the blink of an eye, returning the markets to a state of equilibrium. It would however be possible if you offered prices and they were taken, or perhaps by placing some of the bets inplay as the odds move.

There will as always be an element of risk/reward to consider. That is the very essence of trading rather than finding clever new ways to make a guaranteed profit. Some people spend a lifetime looking for loopholes in markets, be wary of anyone saying they have a get rich quick scheme or novel approach. Remember, an edge shared is usually an edge lost so question their motives too.
Google: "Hedge two/three markets for small (but almost guaranteed) profit ideas?"
I found that info in the forum over there.
So i guess its nothing but BS : P

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ShaunWhite
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Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:02 pm

I'm sure it's based on mathematical truths but these things are rarely as easy as they sound.

It's good to look at these things though as it makes you more analytical and knowledgeable about the markets. They sometimes spark ideas of your own too about how they could be executed, perhaps using automation to obtain a small edge over a large number of matches or races.

There's even a thread on here that's dedicated to failed strategies, if you eliminate what doesn't work, what you're left with might.

ilovepizza82
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:41 pm

Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:07 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:02 pm
I'm sure it's based on mathematical truths...
(...)
Yeah. Maybe. But when I do:
1-1 £3.43 ODDS: 11
2-2 £1.57 ODDS: 24
ONLY 2 cs DRAWS (dutched)
STAKE: £5
Profit: £31.09
And when I lay draw 5.5 ODDS I would have to put £55 of liability for a profit of £10.
So if I win on lay draw i win £10 but lose on Cs = £5 profit
But if THe cs draws win: I win £31.09 but lose £24 on lay draw.
A bit risky to make £5 imho.
It just doesnt calculate to do it.
Is there a way to master it ?

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ShaunWhite
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Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:17 pm

ilovepizza82 wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:07 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:02 pm
I'm sure it's based on mathematical truths...
(...)
So if I win on lay draw i win £10 but lose on Cs = £5 profit
But if THe cs draws win: I win £31.09 but lose £24 on lay draw.
It just doesnt calculate to do it.
So if it's not draw (the lay wins) you win £5
and if it is a draw you win £7.09?

Seems ok to me.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 1952
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:20 pm

You need to compare your risk/return to work out what odds you're getting and compare that to what odds are available for that basic outcome. 'A bit risky' doesn't mean anything, you need to work it out in terms of odds.

ilovepizza82
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:41 pm

Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:23 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:17 pm
ilovepizza82 wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:07 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:02 pm
I'm sure it's based on mathematical truths...
(...)
So if I win on lay draw i win £10 but lose on Cs = £5 profit
But if THe cs draws win: I win £31.09 but lose £24 on lay draw.
It just doesnt calculate to do it.
So if it's not draw (the lay wins) you win £5
and if it is a draw you win £7.09?

Seems ok to me.
No no. I put it wrong way. My liability is £55 so i lose if there is draw. So im £24 out of pocket...unless i miscalculated something...
£31 profit from cs draws -£55 loss on the lay = - £24

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