Bet Angel for newbies / Getting started : Maths Question sorry

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Angelbaby
Posts: 55
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:49 pm

Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:57 pm

I am using the various tools in betangel to predict odds movement. Which is great.

However is there a formula I can use to work out the predicted profit or loss given a certain event. So if a lay price moves say from 1.93 which I have a liability of £20 (so 20/.93=21.51) to 1.45. That is 0.48 movement not in my favour, how do I work out the loss in this instance.

Hope that makes sense thanks

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Dallas
Posts: 8769
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:29 pm

Maths is always the same and is as follows

Stake multiply by entry odds & divided by current best exit odds
Example; A back bet of £50 @ 7.4 and current odds to green up with a lay bet are 3.15
£50 multiplied by 7.4 divided by 3.15 = £117.46 lay bet required at these odds

Derek27
Posts: 2859
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:43 pm

There's no need to apologise for asking a question on this forum. :)

Angelbaby
Posts: 55
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:49 pm

Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:55 pm

So in my example which was a lay I would first find the stake based on liability and multiply that by the lay price and divide by the current back price.?

Is there a quicker way of doing this based on movement of price alone or do we need all the components of the bet to work it out?

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Dallas
Posts: 8769
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:12 pm

Angelbaby wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:55 pm
So in my example which was a lay I would first find the stake based on liability and multiply that by the lay price and divide by the current back price.?
Yes that's correct

What exactly is it your doing or why do you need to work out it on the fly?

Angelbaby
Posts: 55
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:49 pm

Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:19 pm

I'm looking back at old data to see whether a strategy would be profitable and need to identify price changes and how they affect the profitability or not as the case may be.

I'm looking at 2.5 goals market and seeing the impact on price of zero goals being scored upto a certain time and then 1 goal and 2 goals.

spreadbetting
Posts: 1691
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:40 pm

Easiest way to think of trading is to understand it's simply a balanced equation, if you want to red/green any profits with decimal odds it will always be


LAY STAKES X LAY ODDS = BACK STAKES X BACK ODDS

From there simple maths will work out any stakes or odds required i.e

LAY STAKES = (BACK STAKES X BACK ODDS) / LAY ODDS


and so on.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 3433
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:22 am

If you're using data then why do you need a quicker way? Type it once, fill down, job done. I thought you were doing it in your head! :ugeek:
Btw the reason you can't just use the 'amount' moved is because 1.01 + 0.48 is much bigger move than 990 + 0.48.
Angelbaby wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:19 pm
I'm looking at 2.5 goals market and seeing the impact on price of zero goals being scored upto a certain time and then 1 goal and 2 goals.
You could do this with maths rather than the data, like soccer mystic does. Then take this theoretical ideal market and compare it to your data to see what's happening. Throw in your new price difference knowledge to figure out the offset and you're on the way to finding something. I don't think i've given away any great trade secret there, it's basically what soccer mystic is about but on a different market. Worth a look if you've not used it much.

Angelbaby
Posts: 55
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:49 pm

Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:29 am

Thanks for responses

The data I have is when goals are scored not the price change when they are scored which I think is what you were saying. (Shaun)

I have the percentages of upto a certain time of 0-3 goals being scored in a market I'm interested in. So I was working out using soccer mystic the changes in price and the subsequent profit or loss of all possible outcomes.

I trialled it last night and luckily had matches with 0,1 & 2 goals scored so I could see the accuracy which wasn't far off the prediction.

Of course now the hard part comes of identifying the correct matches to apply this strategy too :lol:

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