Bet Angel for newbies / Getting started : How long will it take to learn to trade

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How many markets did you trade before you started being consistantly profitable?

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Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:49 pm

I'm not sure there is a 'right' answer.

I jumped when the market was immature so I didn't realise until about 18 months in that this was actually a huge opportunity. I feel like you need to experience all the ups and downs before you can really say you know what you are doing.

The middle of winter feels nothing like the middle of summer! So I'd say not a number of markets but an amount of time.

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Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:50 pm

Euler wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:49 pm
I feel like you need to experience all the ups and downs before you can really say you know what you are doing.

“The master has failed more times than the beginner has even tried.”

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Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:01 am

cant count just markets ,because theres so much other stuff involved as well,,
but no less than 10.000 hours.

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Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:47 am

I'm not at consistent profitability yet and I suppose it depends on what you define as trading as say horse racing trading is very different to football and manual trading is very different to automated trading.

On football I think I have finally had my light bulb moment this week and I'm pretty confident that consistent profit starts right now. Disappointed it took me so long to figure it out! Still lots of work to do to fully develop and deploy comprehensive strategies for football.

On racing, wow where to start. Having started dabbling only in September I've not been through a summer flat season yet and I tend to be busy most weekends so largely my experience has been on low grade races which can be extremely volatile and frequently highly manipulated by other traders or syndicates. With manual trading I can generally make a profit before the markets really kick into life in the last few minutes, then it is more of a game of chance with the dice seemingly loaded against me. My relatively untrained eye finds it very difficult to detect when a market is being pushed one way late on with the intention of profiting from a reversal and when a market is being pushed one way and then being pushed further still in the same direction. Intermodal in yesterdays 20:15 at Newcastle was a good example of odds being pushed to both new lows and new highs in the last 4 minutes before the scheduled start. For me success or failure in horse racing will rest on my ability to analyse data and develop automated processes.

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Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:32 am

Whilst profitability is ultimately the end goal, it's important to remember that profitability can only come through discipline, mindset, risk management, market cycles etc.

I'd also suggest that like any other field, the people at the top never stop learning or improving.

The other curve ball that we have to deal with, is our ego - I'm sure we can all recall a time where we've pulled off a great trade and declared ourselves to be (insert your own example here)

The reality, of course, is that we need to be emotionless and robotic in our trading.

Success is a journey and not a destination etc.


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Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:31 pm

i started manually pre race trading properly in may 2015. id been doing a bit at the weekends for about a year before that but i was off work with a broken leg so i thought id give it a serious go. i traded almost every day for 4 months, you could count on 1 hand the number of days off i had. I didnt really get anywhere i had stopped a few rookie mistakes like going in play and over staking very early but i was still at a loss at the end of every week. When my leg was fixed i went back to work and trading weekends til April 2016. Then in April i got a new job that paid £120 a week less than the job i had but the hours were better suited to trading. So again i started trading 7 days a week. It was pretty much all one way traffic until july this year when i eventually called it a day. i had the odd winning week but nothing worth talking about. And after over 10000 races i was no closer to cracking it than i was when i first started. If the trading journey was London to Edinburgh after 3 years i still wouldnt be out of my street. So if you think 5 or 10000 markets traded will be some guarantee of success i can tell u its not.

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Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:02 am

Forever learning it seems! Personally, I must be between 5k horse racing markets. Have too many different files to get a decent estimate for sure though.

I'd say I had the knowledge to be profitable around 1k, but obtaining the execution to stick to my rules is taking much longer than I ever imagined at the 1k mark. :ugeek:

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Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:56 am

I have been trying to automate trading on Betfair for years part time. I forget how many years (more than 5) and have had long gaps in terms of consistency during that time.I was far more focused on the automation from a technical challenge perspective than thinking about what trading actually meant. I started watching PW videos at the beginning of the year and it changed everything about how I view BF markets and myself- I had a few realisations about how important your nature is re trading , during this period.I started reading and watching videos about trading psychology as it became apparent that this aspect is key.When I realised that the market was turning against me at the exact instant that I opened a trade because I was looking for it-it nearly blew my mind (had a reminder of this today when my mindset wasn't right-had to reset and slowly moved into profit-tough days still). Trading does seem to reflect ones mind/nature very accurately.When I got this, I stopped losing and my BF balance graph evened out. I have continued with the automation and am finding some success there too now. It is not easy but I still enjoy the challenge. I started trading horses 'properly''(manually) about a month ago and have made $70 over about 250 markets in the past month.Not exactly stellar but I haven't had one losing Saturday yet.It is difficult in Oz ,I find, with a full time job as you only really have Saturdays to trade and the UK markets are on too late for me(young family adds challenges). My personality is not geared towards risk taking so I have found that if I find an edge I have to stick to it like glue and let expectations go. On that, of course finding an edge is bloody important and obviously a big part of success but I think one needs both-edge+psychology (know thyself has never meant more to me than now) .Anyway, I guess as long as I am not losing badly, I keep going. I would love to do this full time but perhaps I don't have 'it';that said if I can make money as little as it is, I reckon most people can do ok with effort. I also think that a hobby like this keeps the grey matter going like few other pursuits, so I try remind myself of that when I have an off day. Best of luck!

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Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:49 pm

The distribution of votes isn't quite what I expected. If I'd got the selections right I guess it would look like this (below), with the peak being at around a year/10k mkts/10k hrs, with a few people getting it unusually quickly.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

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Sat Dec 02, 2017 3:02 pm

Perhaps some people have a natural aptitude for trading and some don't and take a lot longer to learn it ?

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