Do all traders have leaks?

[brimson25]

It is said that all gamblers do.

For me, I can't shake the belief, despite considerable expensive evidence, that I can make money on rugby trading inplay. It seems quite simple to work out what you lose money on and stop doing it, but then you think "what if...." and then you're down the rabbit hole again.

I'm tackling mine by giving myself a limit until the end of the month. If I lose this month, no more rugby! Until I have a genuinely new idea, not just demented tinkering.

Do others have these expensive areas of experimentation?

[LeTiss]

Strange title?

I thought this was going to be a discussion about Catheter Bags

[Dallas]

but then you think "what if...."

Those two words are what holds more people back than any other

[brimson25]

Strange title?

I thought this was going to be a discussion about Catheter Bags

I hope you were pleased not to see some horrific jpeg!

[northbound]

Do others have these expensive areas of experimentation?

I used to have a tendency of testing a new trading approach, then upping the stakes after just a couple of successful trades. Inevitably ended up losing tons of money.

Now I do experiment, testing new theories and angles all the time. But I do it with £2 stakes. The goal is to validate a theory over a period of time.

Only when I've proven over many many many many trades that my theory is profitable, I up the stakes.

[brimson25]

Do others have these expensive areas of experimentation?

I used to have a tendency of testing a new trading approach, then upping the stakes after just a couple of successful trades. Inevitably ended up losing tons of money.

Now I do experiment, testing new theories and angles all the time. But I do it with £2 stakes. The goal is to validate a theory over a period of time.

Only when I've proven over many many many many trades that my theory is profitable, I up the stakes.

Yep, I need to print this out and pin to the wall or my own head or something!

[Trader Pat]

but then you think "what if...."

Those two words are what holds more people back than any other

'What if' was a big problem for me in the early days in the context of 'Mm, I'm not sure what the market is likely to do here but What if it breaks through that crossover, I'll be quids in, better lump on''!

Also FOMO was probably my biggest problem, would enter the market way too early most times just becasue there was a possibility of a big move and I didnt want to miss it.

[brimson25]

but then you think "what if...."

Those two words are what holds more people back than any other

'What if' was a big problem for me in the early days in the context of 'Mm, I'm not sure what the market is likely to do here but What if it breaks through that crossover, I'll be quids in, better lump on''!

Also FOMO was probably my biggest problem, would enter the market way too early most times just becasue there was a possibility of a big move and I didnt want to miss it.

FOMO is a killer. You have to sort of let that go, don't you? Sometimes you will miss out (on profit) but it can also be good to miss out (on loss). Hard to remember that, though!

[sionascaig]

Can running betangel in practice mode in the background help with the what if scenarios? I've started to use this approach to get a feel for markets behaviour without interrupting main trading but to give an indication of how markets are behaving, e.g. you could run a back bot on the fav that say places a back bet at best market price 5 mins to go & closes position just before of the off...

==> From looking at the watch list you can then get a very quick indication if favs are in general getting backed in or not during the day... (or any other scenario you want to investigate)

Just a thought...

[Trader Pat]

FOMO is a killer. You have to sort of let that go, don't you? Sometimes you will miss out (on profit) but it can also be good to miss out (on loss). Hard to remember that, though!

Exactly. It made a huge difference when I started to record trades. Whenever I felt like placing a trade I held back and made a note of the time to off then I just folded my arms and waited for the market to mature and for a clear signal before getting involved. When I'd review the video later on and compare when I was going to get involved against when I actually did it showed that most of the time I didnt miss out on any move and that sometimes the market would have went against me. I missed out on the occasional big move but when I added up all the ticks it showed I would have been comfortably in the red so that simple trick pretty much stopped me getting involved too early overnight.

[brimson25]

Can running betangel in practice mode in the background help with the what if scenarios? I've started to use this approach to get a feel for markets behaviour without interrupting main trading but to give an indication of how markets are behaving, e.g. you could run a back bot on the fav that say places a back bet at best market price 5 mins to go & closes position just before of the off...

==> From looking at the watch list you can then get a very quick indication if favs are in general getting backed in or not during the day... (or any other scenario you want to investigate)

Just a thought...

That's a good idea, cheers.

[brimson25]

FOMO is a killer. You have to sort of let that go, don't you? Sometimes you will miss out (on profit) but it can also be good to miss out (on loss). Hard to remember that, though!

Exactly. It made a huge difference when I started to record trades. Whenever I felt like placing a trade I held back and made a note of the time to off then I just folded my arms and waited for the market to mature and for a clear signal before getting involved. When I'd review the video later on and compare when I was going to get involved against when I actually did it showed that most of the time I didnt miss out on any move and that sometimes the market would have went against me. I missed out on the occasional big move but when I added up all the ticks it showed I would have been comfortably in the red so that simple trick pretty much stopped me getting involved too early overnight.

"folding your arms" Good idea to stop your hand hovering over the mouse!

[Derek27]

I've recently taken an interest in tennis but I've set myself a clear target of doubling my test bank before taking it up seriously.

It shouldn't be expensive testing new projects as you can always do it to small stakes. The important questions you need to get right are, have you given sufficient time to test the strategy or is it time to ditch?, and does your new strategy have a viable chance to make it worth while testing?

[ruthlessimon]

'What if' was a big problem for me in the early days in the context of 'Mm, I'm not sure what the market is likely to do here but What if it breaks through that crossover, I'll be quids in, better lump on''!

Also FOMO was probably my biggest problem, would enter the market way too early most times just becasue there was a possibility of a big move and I didnt want to miss it.

But is that caused by not having rigorous enough data/journal?

Let's say the 2nd goes through 4.0 (horse race). If the trader doesn't understand the likelihood of the 4.0 break succeeding (given this vol, given this time, given this runner, given the context). I think they've got a right to be nervous. I would put £1000 Peter could answer that question (with extreme detail/accuracy)

The "what if" is manifested by simply not having an edge imo. You have to know the "right thing to do".

I firmly believe the majority of psychological issues can be resolved by understanding how edge is created. But tied to this are the many many cognitive biases which arise when trying to form an edge. "The bizarreness effect", "availability heuristic", "confabulation", "illusory correlation", "insensitivity to sample size" etc etc. There's a real lack of educational material imo, hitting those points - & how a trader avoids the traps. (i.e. how does one avoid confabulation - by automating the data gathering process etc)

[Trader Pat]

Completely agree with everything you said there especially about confabulation. So many times when starting out I'd be trying to read the market and only remembering when a potential trade had worked for me and completely blanking out the times it didnt!