Newbie looking for some direction on the forum

[ShaunWhite]

My current goals are; a 10% increase in my bank on trading days and learning not to chase losses. I'm getting there, disciplined days earn me way in excess of my 10%, other days I'm down.

The last thing you want is daily targets. Within a year of 10000 races, arbitrarily slicing that up according to when the sun rises and sets is not a useful number. A week or even better a month would be a better timescale. If you make yourself a coin toss spreadsheet using your current strike rate you'll see that even a successful strategy can have some pretty long losing streaks.

As for monthly targets in general for newer people, forget the positive numbers. Just try not to lose more than 20% of your bank. Breakeven could take quite a while and you don't want to run out of ammo just before you get there. - 20, -15, -10, -5, 0, +5 etc would be doing pretty well.

[northbound]

Spot on, Shaun.

[Bunchie3174]

That's enlightening.
But surely trying not to lose any more than 20% of your bank is still a 'target' whether it be daily or monthly? I record daily progress to inform my weekly, monthly, annual and tri-annual reports. Knowing what you've done to arrive where you are is important, or so it would seem reading/hearing stories of 'best practice'.

[ShaunWhite]

I think the word I should have used was an 'aspiration' rather than a target according to recent governmentspeak.

It was just that you mentioned daily £ targets and imo that's way too short. I never said don't keep records or don't have an aspiration/target/objective.

But another perfectly valid school of thought is that improving your execution should be the main consideration. Afterall, Profit = Edge * Execution. It's a multiply not a plus. Make it something you measure in whatever way suits you and improve it.

If you can't execute your strategy perfectly week in week out, how can you measure how effective it is? When you analyse those monthly stats how will you know which figures were as planned and which were cock ups?

Step away from the £ signs and measurably improve what it is that makes them. I'll be the first to admit that's really really difficult for lots of reasons but that mindset is important.

[trader44]

good advice shaun wish i had had this from the start,i probably would avoided a lot of pain ..are you full time shaun and are you in running or just pre race

[Moniac]

good advice shaun wish i had had this from the start,i probably would avoided a lot of pain ..are you full time shaun and are you in running or just pre race

Yeah I'm fulltime, but on part-time wages
Pre-off horses only with maybe 3 or 4 very small b2l's during the day to satisfy a small residual gambling need that I can't shift. It's not even about the money, I only have a couple of quid on them but it's enough that I never feel the need to have a proper bet. I'm never going to be the perfect trading machine mentally so I've had to incorporate some minor tricks that seem to fool my inner chimp enough that they're not a problem. Might be a slippery slope for some and certainly not recommended, but I know myself pretty well.
(btw same guy, new different id)

[trader44]

"seem to fool my inner chimp"

ah yes that hairy little f**ker i know him well

[trader44]

can you do me a favour moniac, if i PM you can you let me know if you get it as have sent a few to people but not sure if they are sending.will just say hi or something. thanks

[Moniac]

"seem to fool my inner chimp"

ah yes that hairy little f**ker i know him well

ditto, I have to give him the occassional banana or he breaks out of his cage.

[trader44]

same here mine likes class one bananas,i have a container full on hand for when he wants his own way

[trader44]

did you get my reply to your pm ,thanks

[Korattt]

if I may add?,

forget targets as every day is different,

if you can crack how the markets work & why then you’ll do this, don’t sit at a screen & say to yourself I think that’s gonna drift or that’s gonna come in, there’s no use guessing if you can’t understand why a move played out, find a method (an edge) you understand that works, the try & find another one.. & another one et al

best of luck

[trader44]

also i think if we understand and accept the markets are totally random, ie one trade has nothing to do with the one before or after and just because all signs are there for a price to move there is no guarantee it will move.

[Korattt]

also i think if we understand and accept the markets are totally random, ie one trade has nothing to do with the one before or after and just because all signs are there for a price to move there is no guarantee it will move.

I agree & with that if we’re able to put ourselves in a position where a payoff is likely more often than not then profits will grow day by day

[Moniac]

ie one trade has nothing to do with the one before or after

The Gambler's Falacy is a thing people struggle with because of the Law of Large Numbers