stefan084 wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 5:12 pm
This scenario happens quite frequently and kills me everytime. ex . today's first race at Tipperary. GeeGeez,ATR, Racing Post, etc say virtually nothing about Mm Sixsevei. (racing post says he has potential but Early Call is preferred) Listed as 3-4th fav, staying most of the pre race at odds around 7ish with the co favorites around 3-4. The instant I put a lay bet on Mm his odds drop an insane amount, so I'm sitting there in disbelief waiting for the odds to snap back a little because it doesn't seem to make sense. The odds never come back and the horse goes on to basically jog past the line winning by 30 lengths. wtf is going on here? If I can't figure out how to stop or at least reduce this my bankroll will be wiped out
Hi
Some tips
1) a quick look at the form : this is where punters first check to place their bucks. And this is mainly WHY a favourite is a favourite.
2) look at the betfair graph: I prefer to see curving lines than trading lines : a curving line will allow you to estimate support/resistance points.
3) Try to figure out why the first 3 horses have been priced this way : why a horse whose form is 432221 is @2.8 while the second fav whose form is 551112 is priced @4.5
Does the first favourite deserve such a low price ?
4) Don't try to eye 5/6 ladders at the same time : open the market overview, it is far more easy to realise from which horse the odds are comin'in
5) Don't try to trade all the races : allow you 10 minutes for each race you'll trade : till 10' to 5', do nothing, don't put your hand on this "burning" mouse: just observe. Focus on the 1st favourite and the way the money is filling both sides of the ladder : ideally you want a favourite close from the top of his odds (right column of the ladder) and THEN, prepare yourself TO BACK him IF :
- the money waiting to the lay side is vanishing
- the favourite is not trading at a pivotal/incremental point : clever traders are just playing those points at their advantage (risk/reward *2) and it is better to lay @3 than to back.
You are just trying to anticipate the favourite price continuing to steam because the punters forced the price to go down.
If the trend stop and you see the money on the lay side is outperforming, no problem : scratch or take 1/2 ticks red. No more : Reassess and wait your next entry point.
What you have to forge in your mind is that you are the casino : you know it is impossible to win all the hands, but after 100 hands you know that by putting your edge each time the configuration allows you to enter the trade, you'll win more times than you loose. 53/47 is enough. If you hit 60/40 or even 55/45, you'll enter the long term (very) profitable community.
Avoid odds on favourite: the risk/reward is not good
But if you spot (usually last 2 minutes, when punters try to create value) a drift, look closely at the market overview: if the 2 or 3rd favourite is comin in, back it but don't expect more than 2-3 ticks
What you describe in your post is due to players throwing big amounts of money, pushing suddenly (a peak) the price in one direction: most of the time, you'll encounter a "pull back", you can also take advantage of it (again, don't expect more than 3 ticks)
Try this exercice : try to play your -supposed- edge 30 times in a row, 2 pounds stake, as mecanicaly as you can. Green 1 or 2 ticks, Red 1 or 2 ticks, scratch. And repeat. And always keep in your mind the fact that it is impossible to be right each trade.
Don't be focus on the gain/loss: be focus on the routine of pushing your edge as often as you can
Hope it will helps.
I was just starting to gain confidence because the last two weeks I was consistently winning many more trades than I was losing. My main issue is damage control when a bet goes the wrong way. I will say " ok, if this goes against me 5 ticks I'm out". Five ticks later I'll say " let's just give it another minute to see if it comes around" 
