1/2 Way There - Results - For Anybody whos interested

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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

They are fascinating results ba1000

Your strike rate is absolutely superb, so to record losses like that is soul destroying

As a full-time trader I can tell you what your problem is...........

You have no discipline

Until you can learn to accept small losses & just 'red up' from time to time, you will continue to post results like these

The area of trading you need help with is not scalpling, swing trades or massive spikes - you need to study the psychology of trading
Mug
Posts: 182
Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:53 am

So looking at that data you just needed to avoid two losses to be profitable?
ba1000
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:02 pm

Lets summarise the key losses:


-129.72 - Classic case of knowing you are on the wrong side of the market -so as opposed to stopping and taking the loss you keep adding to an already loosing position!

However this was a second favourite and I thought there would be a challenge to the favourite - so I went IN PLAY knowing the risk!

The favourite DID loose however the second favourite NEVER made any challenge its price just drifted - an outsider went on and won the race.

-30.00 This was trying to cherry pick a BTL based on a tipsters advice with WIPE OUT as the EXIT position. Again this horses price just drifted and drifted and drifted

Do NOT try to cherry pick others systems as they have winning times and loosing times.

-23.60 My own gamble - I tried DUTCHING the second and third favourites - again their prices just drifted and drifted and drifted. WIPE OUT was the EXIT position


-5.62 A DUTCHING move again based on a tipster - the prices just drifted and drifted and drifted. WIPE OUT was the EXIT position


-31.00 My own IN PLAY gamble - my reading of the chart was WRONG. WIPE OUT was the EXIT position

-51.85 My own IN PLAY gamble - my reading of the chart was WRONG. I was now FULL TILT and OUT OF CONTROL - I was trying to chase the money by throwing more money at the situation.

-50.00 And back to hoping somebody else can make money for me and absolving all responsibility from me - surely the tipster can NOT be wrong again! Looking for a WIN but the price just drifted an drifted and drifted. WIPE OUT was my EXIT position.

So there you have if you do NOT have:

the discipline to follow your own system

you will find yourself going FULL TILT and chasing the money by throwing more money at the situation! You will even absolve yourself from responsibility by letting somebody else make the decision for you.

DONT DO IT

DISCIPLINE DISCIPLINE DISCIPLINE

Learn to develop trading techniques with small stakes. Set up a business plan and stick to it (see Mike's post)

Trading IS simple:

What are you trading and why?

How long are you going to give what you expect to see to happen?

What is your profit target?

What is your stop loss?

************************
I take FULL responsibility for ALL decisions made - the only person who lost my money for me was ME ME ME
************************
ba1000
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:02 pm

Thanks for the comments.

I do take losses pre race. Unfortunately seven times I decided on the GAMBLE!!!

And if you have seen my other thread "Help I'm Going Psycho" you will know psychology IS my problem. :lol: :twisted:
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to75ne
Posts: 2416
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

you have identified your problem. so how are you going to address it?

with respect more posts in this vain will not solve it.
ba1000
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:02 pm

Hi to75ne,

As I said in previous post - I have to decide if trading is for me or not!

I would have loved for somebody to give me a months worth of data and an explanation of what was going on when I started out.

This was just my small contribution of giving something back - even if it was showing people how to loose.

Unfortunately my advice was not in time for the person who has just lost 25k in a few months.
ba1000
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:02 pm

And finally for what its worth a perfect trading day - no trades went in play - no gambles were taken on!

0.63 GB / Newb 14th May / 13:50 5f Cond Stks
0.32 GB / Newb 14th May / 14:20 6f Listed
0.41 GB / Newb 14th May / 14:55 1m2f Listed
0.18 GB / Newb 14th May / 15:25 6f Mdn Stks
0.23 GB / Newb 14th May / 16:00 6f Mdn Stks
0.36 GB / Newm 14th May / 14:30 1m Hcap
0.13 GB / Newm 14th May / 15:35 7f Hcap
0.08 GB / Newm 14th May / 16:10 1m4f Mdn Stks
0.20 GB / York 14th May / 13:40 5f Listed
0.23 GB / York 14th May / 14:10 1m4f Hcap
0.08 GB / York 14th May / 14:40 1m6f Grp2
0.12 GB / York 14th May / 15:45 5f Hcap
0.23 GB / York 14th May / 16:20 6f Hcap

Total £3.20


Only another 45 perfect trading days left to breakeven!

Good luck and good bye!
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to75ne
Posts: 2416
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

And finally for what its worth a perfect trading day - no trades went in play - no gambles were taken on!
good to see. so you can control your bad habits if you want to.
Predicton
Posts: 281
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 3:41 pm

Hi B,

if it's any consolation I got hammered in 6 of the 20 races I played with today, it would have been 7 but one particular race threw up an extremely strong "bet" so I left it as a straight win bet after it had drifted like a barge and fortunately, it obliged. I can only dream about having a successful trading strike rate as high as yours (mine's up from 14% to 70% so I'm well chuffed) well done on todays results. Checking them against mine you got a 23p profit in one of the races which produced a £2.64 loss, for me. I'm mighty impressed, can I have your autograph?

cheers, P
Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

I seem to have the same discipline problems. Whenever I get a few 'bad beats' in a row, I often seem to just go 'stir crazy' and start outright gambling to recover the losses. Ironically, the fits of insanity seem to work.

Case in point, at York recently, I'd lost 3 Lay bets in a row and went berserk with rage, throwing much of my bank on on 8-1 shot "Rose Blossom" in a feature race. It difted badly out to $11, which only enraged me the more - filled with rage at the traders, I bet even more on it. After drifting worse than a barge pole, 'Rose Blossom' shot out of the start like a bullet, led from start from finish and kicked right away in the straight, blitzing 'em :D

By the way, the strike rate doesn't mean a thing, because risk is matched to reward. For example, if a casino offered you a bet in which you could win 99 out of 100 times, but the bet only paid 1.01, sure your strike rate would be 99%, but you wouldn't make any profit.
Predicton
Posts: 281
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 3:41 pm

Lol, well done Z.

I only go inplay in specific instances, invariably when opening a trade on an odds-on shot in a long race (excluding chases) which drifts slightly, and then not in anger. It's a calculated risk and if the beast starts to drift further during running,I take the hit then. I use this approach because of the unrealistic moves occasionally made about an odds-on shot,by traders.

I tend to talk in strike rates to give me an indication of whether I'm improving at spotting trading opportunites. You're right, of course that in profit terms strike rate has to be tied to returns.

Good luck today all,

P
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