Daily profit

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Kafkaesque
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Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

markybhoy wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:37 am
Let me explain a bit further as the post was to find out if there was a way to basically switch off guardian at a certain profiit level and now its turned in to my system is useless, my bots not working and i should give up.
With the stats i use there will be a peak point in each day, begining middle or end that i will have profit of over 20% sometimes 30%. If i let my bot run at worst i will have a minimul loss or break even. What i want to do is stop guardian arround the peak profit as any trader would. Saying its not working is a bit like saying no system works as there will always be loss and therefore u could argue loss recovery is always used.
Derek your talking like u have the golden egg of trading and have never lossed. Surely u have good days and bad and would like to minimise the bad. Or maybe we should all give up at the first loss we encounter.

Cheers everyone for the input anyway. I will try tweaking the system and see what can be done
I think, you're taking some of the critisism the wrong way. Nobody's saying, that you should stop trading or that you - necessarily - have a bad bot on your hands. What everybody is screaming at you is that you're looking at optimizing the bot the wrong way around.

I cannot see ANY possible reason why the breaking point for your strategy's profitabilty would be related to you daily profit in percentages. You're correct in that you should stop the bot once in stops being profitable. However, what everyone is saying in unison but in different ways, is that you need to figure out WHY it stops being a winning strategy at a certain point. That's the optimal approach imho. You could conceivably then weed out some bad races/spots early in the day, and still keep the bot going with the (few?) good spots late in the day.
Jukebox
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Good luck with it Markybhoy.
I'm surprised at the amount of criticism that your fairly simple request drew
Remember some of the critics of your unknown system will be the same ones that will tell you you won't know if your system is viable until x thousands of results, others will definitely say that practice mode won't give you a good indication of success and particularly in low liquidity markets like greyhounds and that only real money will show what will truly get matched - others have all day to nursemaid their automation and some have money to spare to run their trials. So why trying to lock in a bit of green if its offered during a real money trial while your at work seems to be such a dreadful thing to them - well who knows?. I can see its essential if you are working on taking advantage of an observed ebb and flow to the day.

I've tried many trade all day automation ideas on greyhounds myself in the past on the side and have observed with some of them that on losing days that good profits had been available at some stage in the day, and perversely on winning days it had gone deep into the red in the course of the day and eventually dismissed them as a nice initial idea but essentially only barely covering the commission.

However I don't see that 'scalping the ebb and flow of the day' on a stable, close to break even file is necessarily any different to scalping a runner in a single race when its price is stable - in both cases you close on the green and have another go - whether thats the next day or the next race. There are statistical arguments against the idea but they are largely based on the idea that all continuous runs of consecutive races of 'n' are equal - when the truth is that a day is not just a random chunk of a continuous run - participants change through the day, autotraders pull their losing files and try something else, punters chase losses or blow winnings, bookies hedge popular multiples that start to take shape and the tracks around the country offer a balance of quality races for the day - . Goodness knows, there are probably even autotraders out there hunting for automatic trades - observing them for some time and then taking advantage - especially on the greyhounds. If one took the time and course names off a continuous sequence of a thousand horse races pulled at random and showed the data to even a modestly experienced horserace trader they would very likely at least still be able to mark the beginning and ends of the days in that run and probably a heap more besides.
spreadbetting
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Jukebox wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:18 pm
Good luck with it Markybhoy.
I'm surprised at the amount of criticism that your fairly simple request drew
Think I'd have to agree, the forum can get a bit "preachy" at times, he'd been given reasons why it's possibly not a wise idea to quit a 'winning' system early and a way to quit if he wants to, up to him which one he chooses.
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Kafkaesque
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spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:28 pm
Jukebox wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:18 pm
Good luck with it Markybhoy.
I'm surprised at the amount of criticism that your fairly simple request drew
Think I'd have to agree, the forum can get a bit "preachy" at times, he'd been given reasons why it's possibly not a wise idea to quit a 'winning' system early and a way to quit if he wants to, up to him which one he chooses.
Me too, looking at myself as much as anyone else! I'd like to apologise to the OP for jumping to the (semi-)conclusion of Martingale. In my, not very good, defence I was biased by the number of posts, or lack thereof, from the OP and the kinds of people who come round with first-ish posts of a holy grail, that's in fact very much not so. Still, had little reason to go there.
spreadbetting
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I'm certainly guilty of it too , I guess because we need to have some kind of blind faith in what we're doing it's easy to get blinkered into thinking our way is the only way to make consistent money on here. I still think the guy's cutting his profits by stopping early but there's probably no need to labour the point.
LinusP
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I think the worst thing you can write on this thread is explain how he can achieve what he wants as its going to lose him money.

I don’t think anyone is being critical especially when I asked the same question 5 years ago :lol:

viewtopic.php?f=42&t=7904
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Derek27
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I actually agree with Kafkaesque's first post, despite the fact that he's retracted it.

I don't regard what I said as 'criticism' in any shape or form. It can easily be interpreted as such, but I was merely questioning the OP's approach. Besides, nobody on this forum has an issue with members getting confrontational to an idea that mentions the Martingale. The Martingale is not the only idea that's incompatible with the majority of traders.

Let's face it, if we all drew a graph of a day's P/L we would all have a peak. I was just saying that trying to identify where it peaks and stopping trading isn't, in my opinion, the best way to go about things.

By all means try to identify the cause for subsequent losses and cut out those markets. But just looking at a graph and thinking "I wish I stopped there" - identifying the spot is just wishful thinking.
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Kafkaesque
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:09 pm
I actually agree with Kafkaesque's first post, despite the fact that he's retracted it.

I don't regard what I said as 'criticism' in any shape or form. It can easily be interpreted as such, but I was merely questioning the OP's approach. Besides, nobody on this forum has an issue with members getting confrontational to an idea that mentions the Martingale. The Martingale is not the only idea that's incompatible with the majority of traders.

Let's face it, if we all drew a graph of a day's P/L we would all have a peak. I was just saying that trying to identify where it peaks and stopping trading isn't, in my opinion, the best way to go about things.

By all means try to identify the cause for subsequent losses and cut out those markets. But just looking at a graph and thinking "I wish I stopped there" - identifying the spot is just wishful thinking.
If you're agreeing with my next to last post, then I didn't intend to retract that. I did and do retract with the Martingale-statement. I still feel that the correct way forward for the OP is to try to pinpoint the areas where his strategy works well and those where it doesn't. Isn't that what we're all trying to do most of time? If it's truly executing poorly later in the day, and it's not one those bleeding human biases, then he's blessed with a better starting point for that pinpointing than most are.
markybhoy
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Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:56 pm

Again thanks for all the comments and no offense has been taken or no apologies needed.
I do beleive i can make this work and until it proves me wrong il keep trying.
As i said before i can break even with it or have a minimal loss each day so the challenge to me is taking as close to peak profit as possible.
At the end of the day it is all gambling so its my money to lose.

Jukebox cheers for the work arround again and hopefully it works lol 👍
markybhoy
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:56 pm

Derek i do understand what your trying to say but if my target for the day is reached should i not then stop trading?
If i was at home without the bot thats exaclty what i would do. Imo the bot should work as close to trading as i do so stopping at profit each day is the aim for me.
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to75ne
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markybhoy wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:41 pm
Derek i do understand what your trying to say but if my target for the day is reached should i not then stop trading?
If i was at home without the bot thats exaclty what i would do. Imo the bot should work as close to trading as i do so stopping at profit each day is the aim for me.
most people who trade (with any degree of success) dont really see an end of day, just racing stops for x amount of hours (or dogs, tennis etc), its just continues again sometime later a sort of continuum, temporary halts along the way.
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Kafkaesque
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markybhoy wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:41 pm
Derek i do understand what your trying to say but if my target for the day is reached should i not then stop trading?
If i was at home without the bot thats exaclty what i would do. Imo the bot should work as close to trading as i do so stopping at profit each day is the aim for me.
As to75se has already touched upon, you're asking the wrong question imho. The question should be: Should I have a daily target? To which it's my clear impression that most seasoned traders would give a clear and resounding no.

Here's a thread on it that sprung to mind:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=16374&hilit=target
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Derek27
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Location: UK

markybhoy wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:41 pm
Derek i do understand what your trying to say but if my target for the day is reached should i not then stop trading?
If i was at home without the bot thats exaclty what i would do. Imo the bot should work as close to trading as i do so stopping at profit each day is the aim for me.
I'm pleased you haven't taken any offence from this thread. :)

There's been a lot of discussion about targets on this forum. I'm not suggesting that there's any standard of trading that you should conform to, but many traders feel they're pointless and it's even worse to allow them to interfere with your trading.

It's a bit like England having a target to get to the semi-final, they achieved their target - it's not the time to go home. ;)

I realise you may be trading as a hobby and not taking it too seriously, which is where the confusion could lie?

If you take trading seriously and have, or develop an edge, the next step in my opinion is to develop confidence in your edge, which conflicts with the' quit while your ahead' approach. It would ultimately result in reduced profits.

Even for a newbie, making mistakes the next day instead of later that day would only delay his progress.
Last edited by Derek27 on Sun Jul 22, 2018 6:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek27
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to75ne wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:53 pm
...just racing stops for x amount of hours (or dogs, tennis etc), its just continues again sometime later a sort of continuum, temporary halts along the way.
For me it doesn't stop at all, it's just a question of when I've had enough or have other things to do. :)
Jukebox
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Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

Wouldn't you at least a agree that a trading day in the major given sports does at least have an ebb and flow to it? There are successful racing traders who don't trade the evening races for instance - because they're different and that makes them even more different because those traders aren't trading them, others that only trade the premium races - and they tend to be focused in the centremost part of the racing day.
I've seen on here respected traders state that they won't seriously trade the first race as it trades so unpredictably.
We've all seen those days when a jockey/trainer combo is on fire and trading on their next race goes off the charts - by its very nature that can't happen at the beginning of a day. And will the favourite be allowed to drift as easily in the next race at Cheptown Park when the last three have all romped home?
It certainly feels like a tide to me.
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