Daily profit

We were all new to Bet Angel once. Ask any question you like here and fellow forum members promise not to laugh. Betfair trading made simple.
Post Reply
User avatar
Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:01 pm
You loss isn't because the bot keeps running, it's because the strategy has issues. How is the first race tomorrow any different from the last race today?
markybhoy wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:26 pm
Saun its not a system based on individual races its a system based on statistics over a period of races.
I don't do greyhounds, so someone - preferably OP - will correct if I'm way off here, but the above sounds strange to me and not like a viable way to create a successful approach (given the other context). Makes me think that the issue is that it's a Martingale or some similar "system" that's returning to its mean return of a negative EV as the races progress.
markybhoy
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:56 pm

No trading system is 100% bulletproof and no trader can guarantee profits. Taking profits as you go and not seeing them disappear is all im after. This is not a martingale system or similar. Its a stats based system.
Thanks for all the feedback anyway guys. Cheers
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

I gave a workaround
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

markybhoy wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:07 pm
No trading system is 100% bulletproof and no trader can guarantee profits. Taking profits as you go and not seeing them disappear is all im after. This is not a martingale system or similar. Its a stats based system.
Thanks for all the feedback anyway guys. Cheers
I don't mean to be funny Mark, but the only way to stop your profits disappearing is to stop trading for life. If you stop betting for the day they can disappear the next day. Making money and losing it the same day is only different to making money one day and losing it the next, psychologically, because you were happy to be in front for one day. Put on your trading hat and you'll realise it's exactly the same thing!
Last edited by Derek27 on Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

markybhoy wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:07 pm
No trading system is 100% bulletproof and no trader can guarantee profits. Taking profits as you go and not seeing them disappear is all im after. This is not a martingale system or similar. Its a stats based system.
Thanks for all the feedback anyway guys. Cheers
Have you done the stats on limiting your profit?

If it’s a stats based system then you are after value and should be taking value, value doesn’t disappear when you reach your daily profit target.
User avatar
SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

I can’t say for sure because I haven’t seen your method, but what it sounds like to me from my own experience is 1) your possible holding on too long on a very loved system/bot- maybe think about letting go
2) you brain is making you think it will be profitable because most Days it goes into profit- when you change your stop at profit your probably just notice longer losing runs.

Rather than trying to stop at profit maybe trying tweaking that actual strategy. If it does reach profits maybe it can simply be improved?

Maybe think about types of races? Times your entering the market etc to adjust.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:20 pm
I don't mean to be funny Mark, but the only way to stop your profits disappearing is to stop trading for life. If you stop betting for the day they can disappear the next day. Making money and losing it the same day is only different to making money one day and losing it the next, psychologically, because you were happy to be in front for one day. Put on your trading hat and you'll realise it's exactly the same thing!
So if you lost between the times 5pm - 10pm; pretty much every single day (for the last year); you'd keep trading at 5pm - 10pm tomorrow?
User avatar
SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

In all fairness. I haven’t traded greyhounds for a good while now, but...

I was only ever able to make it pay during the evenings. I attempted afternoons a few times as I was consistsntly making £40-100 every evening and thought well maybe I could triple that and skip those dire horse racing days but those afternoon dogs are hard to trade imo.

So I wouldn’t write off a stop at a profit type method at all. As Bags afternoon greyhound compared to evening cards imo are completely different ball games.

Used to trade horses all day than Greyhound all night. Last 6 months find myself trying to make excuses to miss saturdays feature races.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

There's a big difference between stopping at certain times/avoiding afternoon dogs and stopping at a set profit. The first two are about limiting losses because your strategy doesn't work for those conditions, stopping a profitable system with no valid reason is just limiting profits.

If you have a winning strategy the more markets you pile thru the more you'll even out any variance and the more your profits will grow.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

ruthlessimon wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:42 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:20 pm
I don't mean to be funny Mark, but the only way to stop your profits disappearing is to stop trading for life. If you stop betting for the day they can disappear the next day. Making money and losing it the same day is only different to making money one day and losing it the next, psychologically, because you were happy to be in front for one day. Put on your trading hat and you'll realise it's exactly the same thing!
So if you lost between the times 5pm - 10pm; pretty much every single day (for the last year); you'd keep trading at 5pm - 10pm tomorrow?
Not quite sure what your question has to do with my quote, but if I lost between 5pm and 10pm almost every day for a year, I'm pretty sure I would have lost the rest of the hours of the day and given up long before a year. In fact, I can't afford to lose for a year - the money would all be gone!

But the OP's question had nothing to do with quitting at a certain time of day where statistics tell him to. It's simply a case of quitting while he's ahead for fear of losing his gains. On the other hand if he lost early in the day he's quite happy to continue to trade. It's simply loss recovery and doesn't make sense.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:33 am
It's simply loss recovery and doesn't make sense.
No, you've assumed it's loss recovery (unless I've misread the OPs original post). I didn't see any mention/data of similar style losses early in the day?

Time is just as valid an area for improvement as any other variable (i.e. sucking at competitive races). But I'd say there's a confounding variable somewhere. The best example I can think of is (although doesn't apply directly to the OP), lack of focus. A trader who simply cannot cope with the demands of 8hrs of trading, will see a consistent drop in performance later in the day. & to tell them "the only way to stop your profits disappearing is to stop trading for life" is a bit silly imo!
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

ruthlessimon wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:11 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:33 am
It's simply loss recovery and doesn't make sense.
No, you've assumed it's loss recovery (unless I've misread the OPs original post). I didn't see any mention/data of similar style losses early in the day?

Time is just as valid an area for improvement as any other variable (i.e. sucking at competitive races). But I'd say there's a confounding variable somewhere. The best example I can think of is (although doesn't apply directly to the OP), lack of focus. A trader who simply cannot cope with the demands of 8hrs of trading, will see a consistent drop in performance later in the day. & to tell them "the only way to stop your profits disappearing is to stop trading for life" is a bit silly imo!
markybhoy wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:00 pm
I am currently running a automated system with greyhounds. 60+ races per day. The problem is i can get profit if over 30% some days but because the bot keeps running i sometimes end up with a loss.
Is there any way to stop guardian once a set profit is reached or once my account balance reaches a set ammount??
I don't do automation but I didn't know bots suffer from fatigue and need a rest after a few hours. :lol:

Stopping at a 30% profit but continuing regardless of how much you lose, if that's not loss recovery what would be the reason for continuing?

There isn't really any different to loss recovery and lack of profit recovery - they both involve betting purely because you're dissatisfied with your position!

The bottom line is that if a bot makes money and then loses it if it continues, it's not making anything - it's a losing bot, stopping for a few hours and then starting it again is pointless.

I suggested giving up trading for life as a better alternative to stopping a bot for a few hours to avoid losses and then continuing with it, hoping it will perform better, out of those two options. I wasn't suggesting it was the best option. As SHR suggested, tweaking, reconsidering, analysing the results could be the way forward.
markybhoy
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:56 pm

Let me explain a bit further as the post was to find out if there was a way to basically switch off guardian at a certain profiit level and now its turned in to my system is useless, my bots not working and i should give up.
With the stats i use there will be a peak point in each day, begining middle or end that i will have profit of over 20% sometimes 30%. If i let my bot run at worst i will have a minimul loss or break even. What i want to do is stop guardian arround the peak profit as any trader would. Saying its not working is a bit like saying no system works as there will always be loss and therefore u could argue loss recovery is always used.
Derek your talking like u have the golden egg of trading and have never lossed. Surely u have good days and bad and would like to minimise the bad. Or maybe we should all give up at the first loss we encounter.

Cheers everyone for the input anyway. I will try tweaking the system and see what can be done
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

In between al the critisism you might have missed that a workaround was offered.
markybhoy
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:56 pm

Sorry jukebox. What would you use as a work arround? Much appriciated by the way
Post Reply

Return to “Bet Angel for newbies / Getting started”