Are events mutually exclusive or random?

[jongup]

Are events in horse racing mutually exclusive or random?

Say the favourite is steaming, this means the 2nd should technically be drifting. There can only be one favourite so the events are mutually exclusive.

Then we have the 3rd horse at a similar or slightly higher price, lets say its drifting - is this drift affecting the first only? the second? both? none? How do we decide what events are affecting what? What indicators are there to look for?

[Dallas]

The book% will keep all prices in check as it gets close to 100% for the move to continue something then has to move the opposite way

Have a play around on the dutching screen, select all runners then manually adjust the price of one and see how it affects the overall %
Then adjust some prices the other way and you'll see how they interact with each other

[MemphisFlash]

as in life, everything is random,!!!

[BetScalper]

Are events in horse racing mutually exclusive or random?

Say the favourite is steaming, this means the 2nd should technically be drifting. There can only be one favourite so the events are mutually exclusive.

Then we have the 3rd horse at a similar or slightly higher price, lets say its drifting - is this drift affecting the first only? the second? both? none? How do we decide what events are affecting what? What indicators are there to look for?

Why would the 2nd favourite be drifting if the 1st favourite is steaming ?

Both good be steaming and all the others drifting to a point.

It gets worse in-play on short races where you could have 3 or 4 neck and neck across the finish line etc.

[ruthlessimon]

I love experiments like this

"What happens if I backed ____ when the following occurs?"

1. The fav steams x%
2. The fav steams x%, & the 2nd has moved between 1%, 0%, -1%
3. The fav steams x%, & the 2nd has moved 2%, 3%, 4%
4. The fav steams x%, & the 2nd has moved -2%, -3%, -4%
etc etc

Being a minimalist at heart, I needed to do that analysis to justify why I needed extra ladders

[jongup]

Are events in horse racing mutually exclusive or random?

Say the favourite is steaming, this means the 2nd should technically be drifting. There can only be one favourite so the events are mutually exclusive.

Then we have the 3rd horse at a similar or slightly higher price, lets say its drifting - is this drift affecting the first only? the second? both? none? How do we decide what events are affecting what? What indicators are there to look for?

Why would the 2nd favourite be drifting if the 1st favourite is steaming ?

Both good be steaming and all the others drifting to a point.

It gets worse in-play on short races where you could have 3 or 4 neck and neck across the finish line etc.

Because 9/10 there can only be one favourite. In hardly any races have I seen two identically priced horses at the off.

[BetScalper]

Are events in horse racing mutually exclusive or random?

Say the favourite is steaming, this means the 2nd should technically be drifting. There can only be one favourite so the events are mutually exclusive.

Then we have the 3rd horse at a similar or slightly higher price, lets say its drifting - is this drift affecting the first only? the second? both? none? How do we decide what events are affecting what? What indicators are there to look for?

Why would the 2nd favourite be drifting if the 1st favourite is steaming ?

Both good be steaming and all the others drifting to a point.

It gets worse in-play on short races where you could have 3 or 4 neck and neck across the finish line etc.

Because 9/10 there can only be one favourite. In hardly any races have I seen two identically priced horses at the off.

The only thing that determines who the 1st Favourite, 2nd Favourite and 3rd Favourite is etc is MONEY and PRICE ACTION. Peoples opinions will drive both. The key/edge is figuring out when they start and end on each selection in the market.

All indicators lag.