Trader or Gambler?

We were all new to Bet Angel once. Ask any question you like here and fellow forum members promise not to laugh. Betfair trading made simple.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

PolicemanPrawn wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:59 pm
Euler wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:43 am
I've had the actual numbers of PC payers leaked to me.
Would it be at all possible to inform me of the number privately?
Look out Peter. 2nd question in 4 yrs and DI Prawn is trying to get you to confirm you know a number that could get your account manager fired if it tallies with the true figure. :)

Btw, isn't the first rule of receiving inside info that you don't give any clues where you got it from. 'Told to me' would have been a wiser choice than 'Leaked to me'. Giving your info provenance like that is a little indiscrete as 'leak' means it's an inside job?
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Euler
Posts: 24813
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

A leak doesn't have to be deliberate, just careless.

I've long been fascinated not only by the structure and nature of the trading markets but also it's participants. I'll often put large orders into a market just to see how much in nibbled away and how often and that can give you lots of clues as to the other side of the market and what's going on. I've been slowly filling in the pieces of the puzzle for years in terms of what I expected to see and what I observe. What it taught me is that Kahneman and Tversky's work permeates everything. It's quite amazing to see.

I'm thinking of doing some face to face mini events, if you catch me at those I'll be able to talk about stuff I can't say in public. There is obviously information that can be public and stuff that can't.

One funny example I can give you is that somebody contacted me some time ago about their trading and discussed with me all their account information. They were miles short of paying higher rate PC but I see them moaning about it all the time, despite the fact they will probably never quality to pay higher rate PC, they have simply never earned enough. To them it's not a weekly stab in the stomach from Betfair, it's a marketing message. I'd be willing to wager it's the same for a very large number of people who claim to be caught in it's grasp.
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

That aside I'd say Betfair's number of 0.10% of customers on the higher rate, is probably about right. But some of that depends on how you measure what you divide that percentage into.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Euler wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:45 pm
That aside I'd say Betfair's number of 0.10% of customers on the higher rate, is probably about right. But some of that depends on how you measure what you divide that percentage into.
Surely it would have been easier just to say a figure you guesstimate to be true rather than skirting round the houses. If we believe Betfair's figures of 4 million accounts and 0.1%/0.5% that'd put it at 4,000 accounts high rate and 20,000 PC payers, which seem low to me.
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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:09 pm
that'd put it at 4,000 accounts high rate and 20,000 PC payers, which seem low to me.
Trading is bloody difficult - those figs don't surprise me in the slightest
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Euler
Posts: 24813
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Don't forget, people don't automatically qualify for PC because they hit a target number, they only qualify if they hit those numbers and their com gen is below a certain level and they meet all the other criteria. So very few people actually pay it, especially at the higher rate. It's deliberately designed to target people who are "too efficient". There are plenty of people in profit over the course of the year, but that doesn't mean they pay PC at all. If you look at that spreadsheet I posted further up you can see unless you are really efficient, then you may not qualify. For want of a better word, It's an "elite status" super efficient trader type thing.

By an amazing coincidence, I actually met the guy who helped design it. I didn't try to meet him deliberately but was in another country when we met. So I used the opportunity to quiz him about what and why. But he stopped short of giving me numbers.

But the problem that exchanges face is that the big winners win 'too big' in reality sucking a lot of value out of the exchange, so the charge is a way of rebalancing it. All exchanges suffer the same problem. I'm pretty sure it came down to a case of ban them or charge them a lot more. 20% didn't change activity but 40% probably did.

I'm not going to be an apologist for the charge as I hate it, more so because despite paying an eye-watering amount to Betfair through it, I seemingly get no benefits. It must fund all sorts of expenditure for them. You would think that would be worth something.
LinusP
Posts: 1873
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:09 pm
Euler wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:45 pm
That aside I'd say Betfair's number of 0.10% of customers on the higher rate, is probably about right. But some of that depends on how you measure what you divide that percentage into.
Surely it would have been easier just to say a figure you guesstimate to be true rather than skirting round the houses. If we believe Betfair's figures of 4 million accounts and 0.1%/0.5% that'd put it at 4,000 accounts high rate and 20,000 PC payers, which seem low to me.
You need to take a few zeros off that! :lol:
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Derek27
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Location: UK

spreadbetting wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:09 pm
Euler wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:45 pm
That aside I'd say Betfair's number of 0.10% of customers on the higher rate, is probably about right. But some of that depends on how you measure what you divide that percentage into.
Surely it would have been easier just to say a figure you guesstimate to be true rather than skirting round the houses. If we believe Betfair's figures of 4 million accounts and 0.1%/0.5% that'd put it at 4,000 accounts high rate and 20,000 PC payers, which seem low to me.
4,000 accounts on higher-rate PC amounts to more than £1 Billion pounds sucked out of the exchange over the years, on top of what ordinary-rate PC and non-PC winners are sucking out!

If anything it sounds quite high to me, though I suppose the number and size of the losers are equally unimaginable.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Euler wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:41 pm
Don't forget, people don't automatically qualify for PC because they hit a target number, they only qualify if they hit those numbers and their com gen is below a certain level and they meet all the other criteria.
For a winning trader it's pretty much impossible not to get into the PC comms brackets, might be possible churning your way out of the lower rate bands but the higher ones is a different story. there may be some super Aussie traders who can avoid it but for the majority of traders it's not that easy. I'd certainly agree winning gamblers aren't likely to go into the net but I'd imagine they're a rare breed on betfair.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:53 pm
4,000 accounts on higher-rate PC amounts to more than £1 Billion pounds sucked out of the exchange over the years, on top of what ordinary-rate PC and non-PC winners are sucking out!

If anything it sounds quite high to me, though I suppose the number and size of the losers are equally unimaginable.

Compared what's going into the pot from losing traders/gamblers that £1 billion is a very low estimate, Derek. Remember Betfair were valued at £1.5billion in 2006 off the back of charging 5% and have been going 18 years.
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