Set matrix odds predictions seem not coherent

[pdenoeud]

Hi all

I checked the set matrix odds for the tennis match Nishikori - Federer to come and one thing seems wrong to me : all predicted odds for both players are the same, for all scores designating Nishikori (or Federer) as a set winner. I mean for scores 6-0, 6-1, 6-2,... 7-5, estimated odds for each players are always 1.57/2.77 (see screenshot attached).
That seems wrong to be. I would expect a big difference if Nishikori wins the first set 6-0, rather than 7-5 : At 6-0, Nishikori estimated chance of winning the match shall be much higher than at 7-5, so its odds shall be much lower : in both situations he leads 1 set to 0, but winning 6-0 shows that he has a clear lead on his opponent.
I know those odds are just predictions, but they shall be coherent.

Did I miss anything or there is something wrong in the matrix predicted odds?
I guess I missed something somewhere....

Thanks for your help!

[Dallas]

The prices shown are the expected odds for winning/losing the first set, it wouldn't matter how it was won

[pdenoeud]

The prices shown are the expected odds for winning/losing the first set, it wouldn't matter how it was won

Hi Dallas

But in reality, you agree that odds when winning the 1st set 6-0 will be quite different from odds when winning 7-5, right? Since the estimated odds in the matrix are supposed to be as close as possible to the reality, why aren't them themselves different?

To me, seeing the same odds and knowing that in reality they will be quite different mean that displayed estimated odds are not reliable at all: if the 6-0 odds are indeed close to what will happen if the score goes from 0-0 to 6-0, then the 7-5 odds (with the same value) are really far away from what will happen, and vise-versa.

It is not coherent, as if the estimated odds for a player went up in the matrix after the player wins a game.

[Dallas]

The prices shown are the expected odds for winning/losing the first set, it wouldn't matter how it was won

Hi Dallas

But in reality, you agree that odds when winning the 1st set 6-0 will be quite different from odds when winning 7-5, right? Since the estimated odds in the matrix are supposed to be as close as possible to the reality, why aren't them themselves different?

No, that's why you get a natural compression in the price as they will only reach a certain point regardless of the path way
There will be slight changes depending on how the market perceives a player/s is performing but that's why you would keep re-calibrating as the match progresses

[pdenoeud]

"No, that's why you get a natural compression in the price as they will only reach a certain point regardless of the path way"

Ok, I am very surprised by that, it is good to know. Thanks for your help!