Draw price movement on heavy favourites at home

[acecard]

Hi all,

Sorry if this is the wrong section for this query!

I have decided to start experimenting with laying the draw on games where there is a heavy favourite playing at home. I had previously steered clear of these in my selections because of the high draw price. However my theory is that so long as I move my stop loss point up accordingly, I could keep my risk the same. However, what I'm not sure about is on this games, do the draw odds come in faster than for lower priced draw odds?

I have have experimented with different scenarios on Soccer Mystic which suggests that they do come in quicker, but I am aware that Soccer Mystic isn't always accurate. In reality, from experience, what have you guys seen? Logically i can't understand why they could come in quicker, but that may be vastly flawed logic!!

Thanks
AC

[spreadbetting]

How are you assessing something coming in quicker? Remember it's basically a graph that has fixed points, i.e. the starting price will always be going to 1.00 after 90 minutes so the higher the starting price the steeper the graph as there's more increments to go thru.

Statistically around 55% of goal occur in the second half so the first half odds graph will also be steeper. There's plenty of articles online to show the maths usually used behind goal decay predictions.

[acecard]

The way I have been assessing it is by looking at the time point at which my rules for my normal selections would result in me exiting (should the game be a draw). My stop loss is 1.5x stake, which on average correlates to an exit time of around 70ish mins. When looking on Soccer Mystic however, if you follow the curve down to the same time point, it the predicted odds decay would show a loss over 1.5x stake.

[spreadbetting]

The problem you have is that goal decay isn't linear and all football markets are basically just derivatives of the supremacy and total goals markets. When we have a heavy favourite they'll have a much higher total goals expectation and supremacy than the opposition so the odds decay won't behave exactly the same as say an evenly matched team as time progresses.

[acecard]

I see. That makes sense. I actually tried it today on the Celtic game and couldn't believe the behaviour of the draw odds! I greened up at 1-0 at 70 mins for a grand total of 25% of my stake!!! Would have expected it to be much greater than that at that point, but if applying what you said, I guess it makes sense seeing as they had only scored 1 at that point.