Trades drifting away

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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

odchamp wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:58 pm
I find the money changes so fast one minute it's there then gone, so might be slow in placing the trade? I can't remember why but yes i do look at graphs and maybe was following a trend in this case.
Now I know how to record and upload I will make notes and so can answer your questions better.
Just to make sure if there is more money on the lay(pink) side then the price should go out all things being equal, and opposite if more money on the back it will shorten?
Instead of actual figures I think I would get on better with a vertical volume bars for back and lay, don't seem to be able to read the amounts quick enough.
cheers guys
Long way to go Gary but gotta start somewhere, doesn't look like there's any clear trading plan in place. Hard to say anything really, ideally you'd like to let good trades run whilst cutting bad ones, not the other way around, no point letting this go past 4. You tried to average out your position but that only tripled your loss in the end. Don't be afraid to change your mind, you can close or even switch sides with one click if circumstances change, but best not to switch sides at this stage, you would just get pushed around by the noise. Sometimes I liked to think out loud when trading, that way when I analyzed my recordings I knew exactly what I was thinking, sounds weird but it's effective and helps to outline a clear trading plan. I would mostly ignore the good trades and focus on bad ones, that's where the best lessons hide.
ajdal
Posts: 101
Joined: Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:05 am

odchamp wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 3:01 pm
This hopefully works, set up a new Account.
It’s 8 mins long so just skip to where areas where I display my skills 😬
https://youtu.be/fL8JGe7BZmE
haha.. watched that video and there but for the grace of God walked I... or an earlier version of me anyway...

Stay away from races like that as if it had the plague unless you know something the rest of us don't... the truth is that price could have easily swung in your favour once it hit 4.0... but someone held it at 4.1 because they gambled a lot traders would have jumped on at 4.0 and it looked weak, and they knew there would still have been a lot of traders still holding back trades and some even doubling up to raise their average.. and people started bailing when the run on the other horse didn't slow and each tick was double trouble.. and that pushed it up further... once it held at 4.1 just take your loss... DON'T double up... You can always come back in later... Also bear in mind there were traders that had pushed the price up and also sold out some on the way up.. Their average price was no longer the same as the ladder price..
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mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

odchamp wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:22 am
don't really want my family and friends to see evidence that i am a complete plonker!
Mate, we all started there.I still do plonky things all the time :) -embrace it. :D
I am no pro but my 10c (and easy in hindsight but maybe a few pointers that have helped me here):

You won't be right at least 40-50% of the time ,even when you are good at this.From what I see on the video there was a clear downward push by 2 runners ..your runner's price had no choice but to drift. Especially when both were coming in and even when only one was coming in heavily and the other started to drift back. A number of price thresholds were crossed by the other 2 runners that indicate strong sentiment..Eva Maria never bounced back over 4. Storting crossed approx 7/4 (2.75 / 2.76) with large enough volume to be a concern..then when Eva Maria crashed through 5/2 (3.5) it was all over (I would have bailed before this I think but definitely when Eva Maria crossed 3.75) There were volume thresholds that looked like good points to exit too but I won't pretend I am an order flow expert.(I am also not that great at Stks races. ) You do what I am working hard at-chase losses...stop it! ;) It is one of the quickest ways to the blown bank. Pick an exit point and admit when you have it wrong then re-assess (easier said than done and is still a challenge for me) but that is a key activity for sure.

Nice one for posting the video. It helps everybody.Keep going mate :mrgreen:
odchamp
Posts: 59
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 2:57 pm

Thanks again for all your replies, a lot to take in and absorb.
Yes I did start with a back bet.
I have the 3 graphs up and glance now and then, but mainly concentrate on one of them because i remember watching one of Peters videos where he says to concentrate on one and learn how thats playing out, and then once your confident with that move on to looking at other charts as it can be a bit overwelming for a newbie like myself, it was something like that not word for word.
I do find it hard to believe that i have got something so wrong at times, and end up convinced it can't drift anymore but most times it does, but as you have all explained I should have bailed out earlier
When looking at how much money is on either side, how far down the ladder are you concerned with, one, two, three or more ticks away from the touching point? as i pressume it's not the total on each side but the amounts nearest the touching point which dictate the direction?
Thanks all
BetBuddy
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:23 pm

odchamp wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:59 am
Thanks again for all your replies, a lot to take in and absorb.
Yes I did start with a back bet.
I have the 3 graphs up and glance now and then, but mainly concentrate on one of them because i remember watching one of Peters videos where he says to concentrate on one and learn how thats playing out, and then once your confident with that move on to looking at other charts as it can be a bit overwelming for a newbie like myself, it was something like that not word for word.
I do find it hard to believe that i have got something so wrong at times, and end up convinced it can't drift anymore but most times it does, but as you have all explained I should have bailed out earlier
When looking at how much money is on either side, how far down the ladder are you concerned with, one, two, three or more ticks away from the touching point? as i pressume it's not the total on each side but the amounts nearest the touching point which dictate the direction?
Thanks all
Depends if you are scalping for 1 or 2 ticks or trying to catch a swing trade of > 3 ticks.

If scalping then look at the amounts on offer on both sides at Best Market Price and 2nd Best Market Price. Ignore 3rd Best Mark Price as spoofers will often stick large amounts there to try and influence the market in the short term and then remove it. usually they have no intention of matching this money hence they stick it 2 ticks away.
odchamp
Posts: 59
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 2:57 pm

Many thanks for the info :)
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ruthlessimon
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Kai wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:33 pm
Sometimes I liked to think out loud when trading, that way when I analyzed my recordings I knew exactly what I was thinking, sounds weird but it's effective and helps to outline a clear trading plan.
The question is, how do you audit that? How did you work out what's working & what ins't?

That is my underlying issue with discretion. What parts of the trade can I scale?

With data, it's dead easy to spot if something's working/not working (so long as we're "humble" with the data) - but edge development only using videos.. yikes that's complicated, & time consuming!!!
BetBuddy
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:23 pm

Peter posted a video recently on order flow. What to look for, what not too and more importantly when to get out of a trade. If you watch it many times then you should figure out that in this video he has basically given you everything you need to know on how to have +EV.

However, you cannot account for when someone decides to dump 10K and wipe out yours and everyone else’s position in the swoop of a mouse click.

But as he states you can offset that by picking certain races and waiting for a reversal and / or someone with deep pockets doing the reverse.

Watch the video and you will work out where you have been going wrong on your trades.
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ruthlessimon
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BetBuddy wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:24 pm
However, you cannot account for when someone decides to dump 10K and wipe out yours and everyone else’s position in the swoop of a mouse click.
Or can you?

Interestingly, that's one of my "discretionary" avenues - albeit I'm totally stuck!

A lot of the time, a massive bet (with stuff left over), will get front run for 2/3 ticks (people are obviously prepared for such events/consistent stopouts). The question I've always had: When the bet gets front run; was that a sign the big player took longterm value? - Can I then dissect the setup

Now a strategy like that is incredibly hard to test/prove/scale, but imo is more achievable using data. But hoping we crack the question (merely through 'experience') carries a 95% failure rate - imho, that's a bad trade
BetBuddy
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:23 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:57 pm
BetBuddy wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:24 pm
However, you cannot account for when someone decides to dump 10K and wipe out yours and everyone else’s position in the swoop of a mouse click.
Or can you?

Interestingly, that's one of my "discretionary" avenues - albeit I'm totally stuck!

A lot of the time, a massive bet (with stuff left over), will get front run for 2/3 ticks (people are obviously prepared for such events/consistent stopouts). The question I've always had: When the bet gets front run; was that a sign the big player took longterm value? - Can I then dissect the setup

Now a strategy like that is incredibly hard to test/prove/scale, but imo is more achievable using data. But hoping we crack the question (merely through 'experience') carries a 95% failure rate - imho, that's a bad trade
It can be the Mad Bomber, Peter, Footballer who fancies showing off to his new girlfriend by dropping 20K in the market or a Bookie trying to square his book because of too much liability on other runners.

Not allot you can do about it unless you have an even bigger wallet or are prepared to wait it out and try to recover 20 ticks back to breakeven or a small profit.

I once saw someone drop 30k on a favourite in an afternoon Greyhound race which caused absolute carnage from a price of 3 to below 2, the price never recovered before the off. Obviously they made a nice fat profit but layers got creamed and then some.
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Kai
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Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:10 pm
Kai wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:33 pm
Sometimes I liked to think out loud when trading, that way when I analyzed my recordings I knew exactly what I was thinking, sounds weird but it's effective and helps to outline a clear trading plan.
The question is, how do you audit that? How did you work out what's working & what ins't?


Through actual trial and error? It's not like you have to start completely from scratch and invent unique trading styles, there are enough blueprints and actual examples on the Bet Angel Youtube channel alone to get everyone started. For me personally Peter was the biggest influence and the main source of trading knowledge, not just on prerace markets but far beyond that, I still find it hard to believe just how much he actually reveals in the videos about various sports. A single real trade example can be enough to learn from and enough to extrapolate and build an entire edge around it, which can then turn into a snowball effect and open be built upon further.
ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:10 pm
With data, it's dead easy to spot if something's working/not working (so long as we're "humble" with the data) - but edge development only using videos.. yikes that's complicated, & time consuming!!!
You're right, it's easy to stay humble when dealing with data since numbers can't really lie and mistakes are obvious. But when you're manually trading and dealing with all the emotions that come with it it's a different story, very difficult to stay humble and admit mistakes so people end up lying to themselves and blaming everything and everyone for their own mistakes. Video analysis gives you the opportunity to watch yourself do stupid things so that you can first recognize that, and second try and correct it for tomorrow, and so on. I never suggested it wasn't complicated or time consuming, everything worth doing in life usually is.

This is an embarrassing story but when I first found out about sports trading I figured it would take me a week or two max to learn it, because I usually pick things up very fast. And a few weeks later I've stumbled upon a working LTD football strategy that seemed to good to be true and I honestly thought that I reached the highest level of trading already, I thought that was all there is to learn about trading so I just started scaling up and was completely oblivious and ignorant about what others were doing, my mind was completely closed to learning new things so I didn't even bother. The LTD stats soon dried up and I was forced to trade without a real strategy and that's when things went horribly wrong, I've had my first (and last) tilt which completely wrecked my profit and progress. So I took a step back and as painful as it was to admit that I knew nothing about trading, I went from one extreme to the other, from thinking that I know everything to deciding that I know nothing, which turned my mind into a proverbial sponge because I was just going around trying to learn and absorb whatever I could, to try and learn from the mistakes of others. And that's when the learning started for me, I found trading software, read all the blogs, learned what scalping was, discovered prerace markets, stumbled upon Peter's videos and this forum, and so on. Since then I've done a lot of networking with all kinds of traders big and small, especially in my region and in Portugal, so I've had opportunities to discovered different trading styles and approaches whilst working and developing my own. I feel I'm in a good place but I'm still as open-minded as ever and still learning new things, it's kind of fun and addictive in a weird way, the learning never really stops if you ask me. In the end I feel like my biggest edge is knowing how to find/develop an edge, knowing the exact process, at least the process that works for me.

My point being is that if somebody spends years learning to trade prerace and has gotten nowhere after thousands and thousands of races, then there has to be something wrong with their learning process. I'm aware that people have vastly different personalities and backgrounds but if I kept repeating the same mistakes all over again for years then I would have to question my whole learning approach, I'd have to admit at some point that it's not working for me and I'd try something else.
BetBuddy
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:23 pm

odchamp wrote:
Sat Jul 27, 2019 3:17 pm
Having a really bad day today on the Horses, small stakes so no big deal, but I just can't seem to progress. I have read shed loads and watched countless videos, but after studying the graphs I make my entry point and it just drifts away and stays away, if im at the top or bottom of the trading range, it just seems to drift and stay that way, no bounce back etc, loss after loss just so frustrating after putting so much time into this to not be making any progress. ( moan over )
Not a race I would trade but Peter knows his stuff.

Have a look at this one and see if you can repeat the concept of exactly what he is doing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAlD7rcT1OY&t=11s
ajdal
Posts: 101
Joined: Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:05 am

odchamp wrote:
Sat Jul 27, 2019 3:17 pm
Having a really bad day today on the Horses, small stakes so no big deal, but I just can't seem to progress. I have read shed loads and watched countless videos, but after studying the graphs I make my entry point and it just drifts away and stays away, if im at the top or bottom of the trading range, it just seems to drift and stay that way, no bounce back etc, loss after loss just so frustrating after putting so much time into this to not be making any progress. ( moan over )
I suspect this will sound really condescending... and it is not the way I mean it... but if you assume the trades are currently at the top and bottom of their range:

2 quick questions:

How are you basing your assumption that they ARE at the top/bottom of the range (since as you state, you are often wrong)… what is the signal you are looking for ??

And when you enter a trade... do you know what you are prepared to lose ??

Because if you are struggling to answer that (to yourself)... then how do you know what you need from a trade to come out in profit ???
odchamp
Posts: 59
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 2:57 pm

Thanks for all your opinions and advise.
I will take a look at more videos from Peter, and trading range when it's at it's lowest ever or highest ever with only 2-3 mins to off.
If at the bottom of ranger and second is coming in i would assume that it has reached it's lowest point and expect it to drift out etc.

Thanks

Gary
sniffer66
Posts: 1666
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

odchamp wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:23 am
Thanks for all your opinions and advise.
I will take a look at more videos from Peter, and trading range when it's at it's lowest ever or highest ever with only 2-3 mins to off.
If at the bottom of ranger and second is coming in i would assume that it has reached it's lowest point and expect it to drift out etc.

Thanks

Gary

Its worth using the candlestick charts zoomed out temporarily as well to establish recently traded range. What was top and bottom 15 minutes ago isnt necessarily the range it's trading at now...
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