Trades drifting away

[odchamp]

found out how to record so hopefully that will help with educating myself.
Yes i seem to just stare at the screen paralyzed in disbelief, and convinced that it will come back, but you are right should have put in a stop loss at 1.5?

[ShaunWhite]

You're paralyzed with disbelief that you can be wrong? That might not be how you feel but that's the behavior. Even Peter with 20yrs and 200,000 markets of experience doesn't claim to be more than about 75% right so I'm afraid you better get used to it.

As you'll have read, the only important thing is keeping (avg loss * %you're wrong) < (avg win * %you're right). The one you have most or even any control of early on is avg loss.

[Derek27]

There’s no need to ride the wrong bus all the way to the depot and back, get off and wait for it to come back..... Because there's a good chance it won't and you'll end up miles away from where you started.

That's a pretty good analogy because that's what it feels you've done sometimes.

[Kai]

hopefully ok this time

I don't regularly trade prerace like others (since I'm a footy trader primarily) but I think I see what your problem is, if you keep trying to catch the bottom on the favorites. I don't think you're going to get very far with that approach in this early learning phase, because that is one of the harder trades to pull off. Looks like you were waiting to see if the fav would bounce off 1.50 again like the first time and you got baited into it when it looked like it for a moment, but you got overrun by late money and late momentum. If that is the case, then from the executional point of view, you basically laid at the top of a retracement while an active long term downtrend was in effect whilst taking the worst possible price, sort of like stepping in front of a speeding train, if anything that was an opportunity to back, expecting the trend to continue but wouldn't recommend doing that so late either. Try not to get lost in the market noise because it can drive you insane if you let it and instead try to identify long term trends and try to observe how the runners trade in between important round numbers in general, it's a betting market so you can't ignore the psychological aspect of it.

Sorry if it sounds too critical but I see a lot of big mistakes here. Starting with the setup, imho one of the easier setups to start from would be to look for strong favs (Peter made a vid about it a couple weeks ago) and not trying to catch a smaller late bounce on the fav, at least try catching the bottom on non-favs and as early as possible to at least have a chance to get on a full trend reversal. I know it's not hard to analyze a bit with the power of hindsight but in this race a super short fav with a super weak 2nd fav by default should be one of the easier ones to read and you should be looking for signs of heavy backing on the fav, so why not patiently wait until the fav finds his ceiling and starts getting backed in again. Not really sure where the disbelief comes from, you must have seen heavy late backing on favs before.

The fact that you never closed the trade basically says that you don't know how to take a loss, both from a mental and executional side, which means you effectively cannot trade. Mentally you basically need to accept that the market will always be right and you will only sometimes be right. Regarding the execution it's very simple, if your reason for this trade was to catch a bounce off 1.50ish (it actually did bounce btw but it was very small) and it just didn't happen then you need to get out soon as you realize that you were wrong. That means soon as it looks like it's going to smash through 1.50 you need to get out. Even if the price comes back you look like you're only looking to get a couple of ticks out of this trade, the risk/reward just doesn't make sense, you would need a very high strike rate to make that work if you're letting the price get away from you that much and hoping it comes back but only taking a scalp if it does come back.

If you learned how to record that's great, that's the fastest way to learn in my opinion. I suggest you record entire trading sessions, you can always delete stuff if there's nothing interesting to analyze, but try to analyze your worst trades to find the most obvious mistakes and then try not to repeat them the next day and so on. Your hard drive should be littered with recordings, screenshots, notes etc. Whenever I'm trying to learn something new or I'm trying something out I will record everything and cut out the important bits whilst talking to myself for future reference whenever I spot something interesting or get an idea etc. It may help to think out loud when you're recording so that it's easier to watch later when you're analyzing, you'll know exactly what you were thinking of doing in the market and you'll gain an extra pair of eyes that way, you'll be able to see a lot more because you won't be tunneling on your trade. Hope that helps, it's very late so I'm not as eloquent as I'd like to be but hopefully that made some sense.

[mcgoo]

Having a really bad day today on the Horses, small stakes so no big deal, but I just can't seem to progress. I have read shed loads and watched countless videos, but after studying the graphs I make my entry point and it just drifts away and stays away, if im at the top or bottom of the trading range, it just seems to drift and stay that way, no bounce back etc, loss after loss just so frustrating after putting so much time into this to not be making any progress. ( moan over )

Mate-I feel you. I have read books on trading , psychology and everything related to trading I can get my hands on.This game has broadened me no end.I was going ok after 2.5 years of hard trying until last week when I just kept losing.I seriously considered chucking it but went back to basics, smalls stakes and just tried to trade what I saw. I noticed something I hadn't seen before and boom was back to my breakeven self This taught me that I had missed something so fundamental, for years, and therefore there is probably a lot more I haven't seen yet so onward we go. The thing I have realised apart from patience (or a lack of it on my part) is that you need that elusive edge (captain obvious but unless you have that you are flying blind) and execute it religiously.You need to see movements before they happen via precursors that point prices in a general direction .Who does all that 100% of the time?-nobody I know. As others have pointed out, if you are in your first year then it is highly likely that you are only scratching the surface.You are up against some of the best and brightest mate.You are trying to be the top 5% in application of a skill.Take it slow, surprise yourself .Good luck

[odchamp]

Thanks all much to digest.
I will take on board everything you all are saying and try not to get wound up, thats why I knocked it on it's head yesterday, I wasn't in the right frame of mind.
thanks again

Gary

[wearthefoxhat]

There’s no need to ride the wrong bus all the way to the depot and back, get off and wait for it to come back..... Because there's a good chance it won't and you'll end up miles away from where you started.

That's a pretty good analogy because that's what it feels you've done sometimes.

Especially with Blakey waiting for you....

blakey.GIF

[iambic_pentameter]

OP

As has been mentioned already in the thread, do pay attention to the type of race it is i.e. a novice will trade differently from a handicap.

Taking the limited racing today, try the following:

Pontefract

There are two maiden races; the 2.20pm and the 5.05pm and both of these have favourites under 3.0 which means there is a chance it could be a swingy market.

At 10 minutes out, spend some time to see on the graphs where the price has been going on the fav and the other horses. On the ladder, see if you can see instances where there is a good chunk of money. When the price gets here it will either bounce, stay there or go through - if it goes through, then it may do so in quick fashion; particuarly if there is no other competition from other runners.

Do not enter until the last 5 minutes when the market will be more formed and when you do so, only use a maximum of 5%-10% of your trading bank and have an exit point in mind. Personally I would look at making this either 5% of your stake. This might seem extreme but will serve you well in terms of being disciplined. Don;t worry about the profits at this stage; focus on the process. I'd suggest that taking your losses is more important than anyhinng else.

At post time, green up/red up and if you can record the whole market on video, watch it back.

Repeat this daily until you feel confident trading just maidens and then move on to more complex markets.

Iambic

[ruthlessimon]

There’s no need to ride the wrong bus all the way to the depot and back, get off and wait for it to come back..... Because there's a good chance it won't and you'll end up miles away from where you started.

lol that analogy

It's the failure rate that bugs me, 90%/95%. For whatever reason, it aint easy choppin' & changin' busses - even if it's the same bus.

If I need to get to Crystal Palace, all I need is the No. 3 bus. That's it - who cares about direction . The key is, when you know it's heading to Crystal Palace, you stay on that bus, you don't get off @ Dulwich! - cos that's a hilly walk if you do )

I will admit though, you won't be a gun doing that. & depending on how we define failure, that trader will still be a failure (depending on their outgoings i.e. £100k mortgage) - but they'll be >£0 longterm

[Derek27]

I thought it was the 2 and 2b that goes to Crystal Palace.

[odchamp]

Had a deliberate chill day away from "trying" to trade today.
Will re read all your comments again before I unleash myself upon Betfair tomorrow, a new invigorated man don't hold your breath but ill give it a go!
Again thank you for your time in explaining in great detail where i am going wrong and possible ways to put it right.
Hope you all make bucket loads next week.

[ruthlessimon]

I thought it was the 2 and 2b that goes to Crystal Palace.

Well exactly, & that's the risk. I always remember Palace having lots of buses - lots of opportunity to make a mistake - end up in woolwich or something

Interestingly I always remember the No. 3 ending at Oxford Circus (max drawdown!! ); but it looks like TfL changed it - that's the kinda fundamental shift that would break an edge!

[odchamp]

How not to trade!
Am I entering too early?
Please if you can bear to watch such a boring effort, any advise would be gratful.
Sorry but the clip is too big to attach, how can I reduce its size?
thanks

[mcgoo]

How not to trade!
Am I entering too early?
Please if you can bear to watch such a boring effort, any advise would be gratful.
Sorry but the clip is too big to attach, how can I reduce its size?
thanks

Upload to YouTube and post link?

[odchamp]

don't really want my family and friends to see evidence that i am a complete plonker!