Sceptical

[malgilb]

Thanks for the advice Pat.

[Derek27]

Hi,

Not sure which markets your trying to trade. But the following real example should give you a starting point on what to look at. The Dog actually came 4th.

Cheers,

Will that help or confuse him. Even I can't make any sense of that.

That Dog has run 3 times since November at that distance and only won 1 time. So 1 / 3 = 0.33 * 100 = 33%. 100 / 33 = 3.0 roughly. My calculation may not be very scientific but there is no way the Betfair odds should have been 2.10 etc. So to me it was an obvious LTB trade or straight lay if gambling.

Hope that makes sense.

That's quite foolhardy maths Archery. Does that mean an unbeaten runner has a 100% chance of winning, and 5 dogs that have each won their sole race will have chances that at up to 500%?

What if a horse wins a maiden, gets placed in two group races, and then runs in a low grade novice, and starts at 1-5? That would be a lay to back or straight lay simply because it's won 33% of it's races?

[rik]

Will that help or confuse him. Even I can't make any sense of that.

That Dog has run 3 times since November at that distance and only won 1 time. So 1 / 3 = 0.33 * 100 = 33%. 100 / 33 = 3.0 roughly. My calculation may not be very scientific but there is no way the Betfair odds should have been 2.10 etc. So to me it was an obvious LTB trade or straight lay if gambling.

Hope that makes sense.

That's quite foolhardy maths Archery. Does that mean an unbeaten runner has a 100% chance of winning, and 5 dogs that have each won their sole race will have chances that at up to 500%?

What if a horse wins a maiden, gets placed in two group races, and then runs in a low grade novice, and starts at 1-5? That would be a lay to back or straight lay simply because it's won 33% of it's races?

i agree, i dont do form analysis but im sure fastest time, average time, gate speed etc for greyhounds are more important that races won perfentage, maybe can work it into your analysis but that alone is just no way thats accurate. It doesnt factor in level of competition in past races as well as the race you are pricing up. Its like saying a football team has a 50% chance of winning because its won half of its last 100 matches, what if it plays against Barcelona?

[Archery1969]

Will that help or confuse him. Even I can't make any sense of that.

That Dog has run 3 times since November at that distance and only won 1 time. So 1 / 3 = 0.33 * 100 = 33%. 100 / 33 = 3.0 roughly. My calculation may not be very scientific but there is no way the Betfair odds should have been 2.10 etc. So to me it was an obvious LTB trade or straight lay if gambling.

Hope that makes sense.

That's quite foolhardy maths Archery. Does that mean an unbeaten runner has a 100% chance of winning, and 5 dogs that have each won their sole race will have chances that at up to 500%?

What if a horse wins a maiden, gets placed in two group races, and then runs in a low grade novice, and starts at 1-5? That would be a lay to back or straight lay simply because it's won 33% of it's races?

Maybe i didn't explain it too well. I already look at previous race times, split times, grades and other stuff as per my original greyhound thread. That dog i mentioned had a whole heap going against it as it also wasn't the fastest dog in the race. There was no reason i could see that the odds should have been so low on BF etc. There have been many more of those today.

[spreadbetting]

Surely the fact Betfair brought in the Premium charge, then even ramped that right up to 60% should be proof plenty of people are winning. But the real point should be whether you believe you can win on Betfair not others proving they can win on Betfair.

[rik]

Surely the fact Betfair brought in the Premium charge, then even ramped that right up to 60% should be proof plenty of people are winning. But the real point should be whether you believe you can win on Betfair not others proving they can win on Betfair.

not „irreversible“ proof though is it, might just be a promotion tactic for people to think there are plenty of 250k plus winners

[Derek27]

Surely the fact Betfair brought in the Premium charge, then even ramped that right up to 60% should be proof plenty of people are winning. But the real point should be whether you believe you can win on Betfair not others proving they can win on Betfair.

not „irreversible“ proof though is it, might just be a promotion tactic for people to think there are plenty of 250k plus winners

...and all the people who complain about PC could be Betfair employees.

[mcgoo]

To the OP :
I have traded on and off for 8-10 years. The last 3 years have been pretty full on in terms of time invested (wifey has lost the plot with me more than once ).
Some context around my situation:
It has to be said that trading in Aus appears far less (not possible to trade big numbers regularly) conducive to income worthy profit via trading, punting I can see it but 20-70k on most markets means you can't go huge and are at the mercy of volatility. If there are full timers making lots of money in Aus alone they, in my mind, are rare but anything is possible-either way am sure it is not easy. Trading the UK for me as a Dad and working full time is a non starter so I have muddled along here in Aus. Recently I started to go profitable but I only had an edge on 2 tracks (NSW with turnover charge and this is maybe why as the big traders can't move the markets as much) I felt that my small stakes were part of my edge (nipping in and out)and couldn't see how I could scale. I tried to read other markets this week,even staying up for a race or 2 on Ascot and got caned immediately .If you are not resilient, disciplined or panic or are emotional this will be a huge up hill battle for you.
Returns:
I think that your question is relevant-having some idea of POT%/profit is important as a motivator and to set expectations. I have done online courses and I have watched every Euler video (no criticism there) as well as read multiple books on trading, psychology and data analysis. Some online resources and books were worthwhile-others absolute tosh imho (dyor and all that) I even started teaching myself to code. The learning has been worth the pain as it has taught me about myself and I am pretty resilient when it comes to failure. ..but ...I recently digested the fact that another well known and successful trader posted his lifetime P&L over 10 years (interestingly, from what I could see, he traded very large numbers on Cheltenham 3-5k per trade sometimes ) which was 250k over 10 years-25k per year for someone like that was a surprise. It reset my expectations. My trading on $20 stakes - a good day is $15 profit with $200 bank so hope that gives you another perspective.(That would be great profit if I was consistent across multiple tracks but as I said, I am not and scaling I am pretty sure would affect my execution-time will tell) A close family member is a retired successful bookie. My wife is a bloody genius so I have had some sound advice all along..most of which was that the returns vs time invested will be too small unless you can automate . The other thing they often ask is: why are people teaching it, running blogs + doing endless videos if they are doing so well at it- most wealthy people don't like to give information away that is going to erode their profit margin. I am sure motivations vary (and things like that get debated to death here so I won't harp there too much) but they have an interesting point(validated by my experience) re be careful who you listen to via books/videos and otherwise (current forum members excepted of course )

Future::
I'll probably keep tinkering as I do enjoy the process. The wife wants me to try other punting options (I guess she has accepted my interest in all thing BF is not going away ) but that is another story so I'll leave it there other than to say I will be a BA subscriber-the automation is fun and the punting will require it anyway.In short, there are obviously big players who make a fortune on BF but I am sure they are very much the exception than the rule(I guess that is why the premium charge is set up like it is). I hope this helps with expectations.All the best
Edit: had to edit a few times -is hard to put 10 years into a few paragraphs

[gazuty]

Scepticism is healthy and is fine. Fixed mental thinking is the danger - "this can't be possible because I can't do it". Humans seem to readily accept our physical limitations but less ready to accept our mental limitations - and there are probably very good mental health reasons for that - otherwise humans would crumble more often and wouldn't find themselves in the position they occupy today.

This kind of thread pops up of course from time to time (on a similar frequency to Martingale).

No amount of protestation will change a person with a fixed mental disposition. Even those who are many years profitable will be treated by those with fixed views as an anomoly about to revert to the mean.

[smallplayer]

Hi Malgilb. I am not one of the high profile traders you are watching online and speaking to by chat. i am closer to your level. I went through exactly what you are now with all the doubts and frustrations. However, if you persevere, you will eventually move past this stage and see that making money is possible. For God's sake keep using small stakes until you are ready for larger as this will limit big losses when they occur (which they will).
The posts above are correct. You do not need to know where the market will go. In fact I doubt anyone ever really does. Even Peter can be baffled after all these years. Accept this fact and things will be easier.
Just go into each trade at what you think is a good entry point. If it does not go your way, exit asap. What's the worse scenario? You've lost a few ticks. Say you do this five times and each trade goes wrong. You've lost five by 2 ticks each time. That's ten ticks total. Well, what if on the sixth trade, it goes you're way. And what if you resist the urge to take small profits early through your panic for profit, and you let it run. Many horses will easily move twenty, thirty or even fifty ticks every day within a matter of minutes. Say you take your profit after 25 ticks. You've just made 15 ticks profit (25 ticks from this trade minus the ten ticks from the last five failures). Remember, you've only been right once in six goes.
As I said at start, I am close to your level. If I focus and stick to the plan I described, then I will win that day, but if I do not stick to the plan, then it will unfailingly all go pear shaped for various reasons.
The above may apply more to swing trading, but you can adapt to any method you use. That's basically it. No big mystery. It's all about what you do and not what the markets do. If you have any worthwhile experience within the markets, you will already know what you need to do to profit. Look within yourself and ask yourself, are you really doing that?

[wearthefoxhat]

Maybe I should have said, "believe in what direction the price is heading".

There is no Holy Grail...however....

Football - Choose a game that you believe will be a low scoring encounter. Back Under 2.5goals Pre-Off, trade out In-Play.

1. You know the direction the price will go with absolute certainty. What can go wrong?

Well...an early goal, a sending off, betfair freezes, poor choice of game with no liquidity, you spill coffee on laptop (did that recently)....

Now you have to decide, when to enter the market and when to exit the market.

That'll be £2000 squid via paypal...recurring payment - Monthly

hat.gif

[firlandsfarm]

OK, I don't trade manually as I don't believe I can spot an opportunity from the many different scenarios as quickly as automation can provided what you are looking for can be automated (and I don't want to be looking at Betfair all day). So I'm not really intending to spout words of wisdom, I'll leave that to the many giving good advice already but my take on trading is … it can't be taught it has to be learned.

[Euler]

I don't blame people for being sceptical really.

It's a jungle out there for people starting out. So many people seem to be offering advice and all of them seem to be printing money. But the reality is most are just printing money by telling people they are printing money.

I wrote an article 15 years ago about a particular trading strategy, I'm sure it was the first time it was ever published. I see it regularly regurgitated but often errantly. Over the years it's been used many times to promote strategies or people. But the fact is the core was never expanded and therefore it's obvious that people never really used it.

Trading is the new tipping!

[NickH]

I think a point to touch is also these social media times. Everybody showing the positives, but no one will ever see the negatives (as no one 'posts' them). People only see the successes and not the journey that was needed or the non-successes.. Getting where some of the people on the forum are is not something that happens overnight, it takes time, and for some it may never work out..

[Archery1969]

In my opinion this forum is of no help to anyone. Apart from the closed nit mafia type group.

- The bots shared should come with a big disclaimer as none of them are going to make money on there own.
- No help is given to newcomers on ideas. Its more like a protection racket.
- Any help that is offered is soon dismissed, ridiculed or shouted down.
- Far too much conflicting information between closing trades before the scheduled start or letting them go in play otherwise apparently your losing value. Peter always closes out trades on his videos, so WTF is going on then in reality ?
- And as for people posting P&L which to newcomers must look like a dangling fish is just dick swinging.

My updated advice to newcomers would be to just move a long, you wont learn anything here, buy extra lottery tickets or scratch cards each week and don't bother wasting your time as your chances of making money or getting any real help are 1,000,000,000,000 to 1.