Sceptical

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MemphisFlash
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Location: Leicester

You can lead a man to water, but you can't make him drink.
Archery1969
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Location: Newport

What I do on the Over markets is to offer poor value lay odds when there is an overreaction to a goal. Typically I will be laying below 1.50 and taking 6 ticks profit when the market reforms and stabilises back. The key is to pick the right games whereby few goals are expected. I wouldn't say its 100% risk free as there is always the situation whereby 2 goals go in quickly.
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wearthefoxhat
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Archery1969 wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:24 am
What I do on the Over markets is to offer poor value lay odds when there is an overreaction to a goal. Typically I will be laying below 1.50 and taking 6 ticks profit when the market reforms and stabilises back. The key is to pick the right games whereby few goals are expected. I wouldn't say its 100% risk free as there is always the situation whereby 2 goals go in quickly.
I've noticed the spikes go haywire when a goal is scored. Nice idea.
Archery1969
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Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:27 am
Archery1969 wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:24 am
What I do on the Over markets is to offer poor value lay odds when there is an overreaction to a goal. Typically I will be laying below 1.50 and taking 6 ticks profit when the market reforms and stabilises back. The key is to pick the right games whereby few goals are expected. I wouldn't say its 100% risk free as there is always the situation whereby 2 goals go in quickly.
I've noticed the spikes go haywire when a goal is scored. Nice idea.
Yep, very often i can get matched @ 1.30 so the downside if another goal does go in after kick off is very small. The upside is if another goal doesn't go in quickly then you get an even bigger bounce. So with a £100 lay i am never really risking more than £50, usually around £30. I am usually in profit within 60 seconds of the goal.

Also, the fewer the goals expected the bigger the bounce.
Archery1969
Posts: 3217
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

As below I am expecting an overreaction of roughly 30% on either side.
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MAGTRADEUK
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I think if you have any disbelief our doubt, then you will fail. You need conviction for this game IMHO, if you havent got that and a strategy then you will fail.

I think its like people saying they cant swim, when the do start to swim, what changed, did they develop some kind of floatation device or their body changed in some way, NO, they realised they CAN swim.
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MemphisFlash
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you can lead a man to water, but you can't make him swim, lol
jamesg46
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Archery1969 wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:55 am
As below I am expecting an overreaction of roughly 30% on either side.
I'm a little lost with this... are you trailing the price by x amount as it moves inplay & if a goal is scored you capture an over reaction or are you leaving those trades in the market for a fixed time period in hope that a goal goes in and you profit from the reaction.
Archery1969
Posts: 3217
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:52 am
Archery1969 wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:55 am
As below I am expecting an overreaction of roughly 30% on either side.
I'm a little lost with this... are you trailing the price by x amount as it moves inplay & if a goal is scored you capture an over reaction or are you leaving those trades in the market for a fixed time period in hope that a goal goes in and you profit from the reaction.
Fixed time period and then they are re-entered at certain points within the game every 15 mins but not past 80 mins as the overaction drops as the game progresses towards full-time.
jamesg46
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Archery1969 wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:05 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:52 am
Archery1969 wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:55 am
As below I am expecting an overreaction of roughly 30% on either side.
I'm a little lost with this... are you trailing the price by x amount as it moves inplay & if a goal is scored you capture an over reaction or are you leaving those trades in the market for a fixed time period in hope that a goal goes in and you profit from the reaction.
Fixed time period and then they are re-entered at certain points within the game every 15 mins but not past 80 mins as the overaction drops as the game progresses towards full-time.
This has given me a few ideas I can play around with to keep me good for the day, thanks Archery!
Archery1969
Posts: 3217
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:14 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:05 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:52 am


I'm a little lost with this... are you trailing the price by x amount as it moves inplay & if a goal is scored you capture an over reaction or are you leaving those trades in the market for a fixed time period in hope that a goal goes in and you profit from the reaction.
Fixed time period and then they are re-entered at certain points within the game every 15 mins but not past 80 mins as the overaction drops as the game progresses towards full-time.
This has given me a few ideas I can play around with to keep me good for the day, thanks Archery!
Your welcome.

Obviously i stop betting on OU2.5 for that game as soon as a goal is scored and I have greened up.

Makesure the Under 2.5 odds are < 2.0 and the Over 2.5 odds are > 2.0
Archery1969
Posts: 3217
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Following on....

I load up all the OU2.5 markets each day. Today we have 25 in total across UK, Spain, Italy, France, Germany and Portugal.

However, I will only trade those that have at least 10k matched.

Cheers,
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Dear sceptics

I discovered a brand new strategy this weekend, on Saturday afternoon. It is of course very early days, but the strategy is already showing lots of promise - looks reasonably scaleable and has produced one four figure and a couple of three figure results. And like other things I came across it purely by accident. I was trying something else and “lucked” in to it through observation and a particular result. Then, through the agency of bet angel tools I can see how I can benefit going forward.

Profits (and repeatable profits at that) are out there - experimenting, keeping good records and writing down a diary or a journal as you go. What worked, why, how, when. Is it repeatable? Do you see a pattern?

Regards

Gazuty
Korattt
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malgilb wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:38 pm
I'm afraid i am starting to get Sceptical about sports trading and what is being claimed by those that apparently make a success of it. I am not the cleverest person in the world but am far from the dumbest. I have viewed all the trading videos once , twice and sometimes many more. I have read the user guide until my eyes hurt and have purchased and downloaded "An Expert Guide". I have tried everything out many, many times. I'm not claiming that there is any dishonesty going on but i cannot see how anybody can predict or work out where the price is going with the way it jumps about so badly. I am not normally a sceptic and would like someone to prove without a doubt that trading on sports can be a way of making money.
OP,

.. don't be sceptical, just believe in yourself & be willing to learn
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firlandsfarm
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:37 pm
...game coming up looks a good candidate. (egg on face coming up)


earlymins.jpg
I haven't checked what the score was but am interested that you seemed to read the stats as "neither team has scored in the first 15 mins" as opposed to "sh1t, they have conceded 6 goals between them in the first 15 mins"! :)
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