Sceptical

[wearthefoxhat]

Is there a time period building up to a match that is more liquid on average or does money just arrive over longer periods of time? i'd imagine that unlike horse racing where people wait to see the horse, most people would just log on and place their bets whenever they feel like it, meaning the money is more of a trickle rather than a flood.

It seems a trickle overall, although some better prices were available earlier today.


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Do the odds move much on overs when the team sheets come out ?

Could do if a key striker is playing, or a key defender not playing.

[Derek27]

Rinse/Repeat...


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How much are you risking to make £4 if a goal goes in?

How often do we see a goal in the opening 5 mins of a game with SP for the unders so low... I was thinking along the same lines as you just a few mins ago. I dont trade footy so i'm not about to pick fault but if 4.2% comes that easy then i'd automate it depending on how often that goal is likely to come.

I'm a failed footie trader although I haven't had much of a go, so I can't comment. But backing 5-1 ons doesn't appeal to me.

[jamesg46]

I just watched the market on that game for the first 5 mins... for me it would defo have to be automated, some might like a calm sea but i love tidal waves.

[wearthefoxhat]

There you go...no danger.

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[Emmson]

I would have thought best time to scalp unders/overs footie is last 15 mins with an analogue radio tuned into game.

[wearthefoxhat]

I just watched the market on that game for the first 5 mins... for me it would defo have to be automated, some might like a calm sea but i love tidal waves.

Automation would be the way forward for sure. (or semi-automation)

[wearthefoxhat]

I would have thought best time to scalp unders/overs footie is last 15 mins with an analogue radio tuned into game.

The analogue radio would give you an edge. I think Peter mentioned that somewhere too.

[jamesg46]

How much are you risking to make £4 if a goal goes in?

How often do we see a goal in the opening 5 mins of a game with SP for the unders so low... I was thinking along the same lines as you just a few mins ago. I dont trade footy so i'm not about to pick fault but if 4.2% comes that easy then i'd automate it depending on how often that goal is likely to come.

I'm a failed footie trader although I haven't had much of a go, so I can't comment. But backing 5-1 ons doesn't appeal to me.

It feels like an easy way to make a few ticks and depending on what you're putting through, it could easily make a good couple of quid. I could of taken a tick before the KO and put a good few hundred through. Like wearthefoxhat says, i think its more about finding the opportunity to get in at the right price rather than just backing, sitting and waiting to hit a % target.

[rik]

just because there was 0 shots doesnt mean no risk? i doubt there is big profit to be made with that, bigger edge probably trying to be consistently front of the queue while price still quite stable at the start of the match and also that should probably be automated to be worth it

[wearthefoxhat]

just because there was 0 shots doesnt mean no risk? i doubt there is big profit to be made with that, bigger edge probably trying to be consistently front of the queue while price still quite stable at the start of the match and also that should probably be automated to be worth it

There is always some form of risk, no guarantees that the trade/a trade will always be successful. Anyone that says otherwise is delusional or trying to scam you.

In the Bournemouth/C.Palace game, a dangerous set piece was all that was needed to break the deadlock. (12 mins) An early goal will invariably occur through a defensive/GK error, set piece/penalty.

Getting in front of the queue is a big factor with the knowledge you know the direction of the market. The Under 1.5goal market will move even quicker, but the risk of one goal would make it more like a straight bet. The under 3.5/4.5/5.5 goal markets will move more slowly, but gives you a chance to get out alive.

Automation or semi automation will make it worth it especially with the number of games increasing.

It does prove that there's no reason to be sceptical in trading, which is what the OP was mainly concerned about.

[MemphisFlash]

You can lead a man to water, but you can't make him drink.

[Archery1969]

What I do on the Over markets is to offer poor value lay odds when there is an overreaction to a goal. Typically I will be laying below 1.50 and taking 6 ticks profit when the market reforms and stabilises back. The key is to pick the right games whereby few goals are expected. I wouldn't say its 100% risk free as there is always the situation whereby 2 goals go in quickly.

[wearthefoxhat]

What I do on the Over markets is to offer poor value lay odds when there is an overreaction to a goal. Typically I will be laying below 1.50 and taking 6 ticks profit when the market reforms and stabilises back. The key is to pick the right games whereby few goals are expected. I wouldn't say its 100% risk free as there is always the situation whereby 2 goals go in quickly.

I've noticed the spikes go haywire when a goal is scored. Nice idea.

[Archery1969]

What I do on the Over markets is to offer poor value lay odds when there is an overreaction to a goal. Typically I will be laying below 1.50 and taking 6 ticks profit when the market reforms and stabilises back. The key is to pick the right games whereby few goals are expected. I wouldn't say its 100% risk free as there is always the situation whereby 2 goals go in quickly.

I've noticed the spikes go haywire when a goal is scored. Nice idea.

Yep, very often i can get matched @ 1.30 so the downside if another goal does go in after kick off is very small. The upside is if another goal doesn't go in quickly then you get an even bigger bounce. So with a £100 lay i am never really risking more than £50, usually around £30. I am usually in profit within 60 seconds of the goal.

Also, the fewer the goals expected the bigger the bounce.

[Archery1969]

As below I am expecting an overreaction of roughly 30% on either side.