Betfair scalping for beginners

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Euler
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Sometimes doing nothing is actually doing something.
Iron
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Some people may find it surprising that you say that, given your 9 figure turnover. :)

What percentage of the time would you say you're in trades, compared to just observing the market?

Jeff
Euler wrote:Sometimes doing nothing is actually doing something.
enzabella2009
Posts: 747
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm

Ferru123 wrote:Some people may find it surprising that you say that, given your 9 figure turnover. :)

What percentage of the time would you say you're in trades, compared to just observing the market?

Jeff
Euler wrote:Sometimes doing nothing is actually doing something.
good advice also for self-destructing newbies..
It`s the same principale of when you are cutting your losses, you are actually making a profit..
Iron
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Another bit of advice for newbies: Remember that markets generally follow the path of least resistance...

Jeff
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LeTiss
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Ferru123 wrote:Another bit of advice for newbies: Remember that markets generally follow the path of least resistance...

Jeff
You're a confusing poster Jeff

You offer lots of great advice to traders, especially newbies. Yet, your personal trading appears to be within the practice mode
Iron
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LeTiss 4pm wrote:You're a confusing poster Jeff
I am a man of many contradictions! :lol:
LeTiss 4pm wrote:You offer lots of great advice to traders, especially newbies.
Thanks! :)
LeTiss 4pm wrote:Yet, your personal trading appears to be within the practice mode
The trades I've logged on a spreadsheet do show an overall profit. However, there is currently too much variation in my results for my liking (although as I'm a trend follower, perhaps that's unavoidable). But for now, I'm sticking with practice mode until I've refined my technique as far as I can, and satisfied myself that I do have an edge.

My results today (using a 5 pound per tick stake) have been particularly up and down!

37.28
18.31
-8.98
-3.4
4.21
-1.74
-1.69
-5.78
4.82
-10.08
0.64
-2.61
1.14
15.62
7.72
24.25

Talk about feast and famine! :lol:

My usual average profit per race isn't nearly that high (it's about 2 quid 70, using a 5 pound per tick stake).

Jeff
Iron
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PS Another reason I'm still using a dummy account is because the spikemeister would probably eat me alive if I used real money! :lol:

Jeff
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LeTiss
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I think you're being guilty of over-analysing what you're doing. To make an averge profit of £2.70 from just £5 ticks is good for a novice. You can clearly read markets the majority of time, even Peter Webb will have some markets where he loses, so don't strive for perfection Jeff...it won't happen.

There's a danger that you could end up like 'The People's Front of Judea' on the practice mode, and keep setting motions to avoid any action
Iron
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Possibly.

To cut a long story short, I've spent far longer in practice mode than I should have.

However, there are a couple of things I want to test/practice before I go live.

I'm aware of the risks of procrastinating, and I'm keen to start earning money (particularly as my savings won't last forever, and I'd like to avoid returning to traditional work!).

Maybe I am being over-cautious, but I know from past experience that if I trade or gamble without knowing what I'm doing, I lose money. And I'm not completely confident I know what I'm doing.

As for my earnings, I don't know how that will translate to 'real money mode'. That said, if I can earn even just 2-3 quid per race, even in the winter months when there are few races, it will be enough to pay the bills.

Thanks for the advice. :)

Jeff
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LeTiss
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Fair enough, but you're clearly a little nervous at the prospect of losing money during the learning process, otherwise you would have dispatched with the armbands by now.

Playing with real money is a different ball game, it makes you think differently, and you will react to market moves/WOM etc differently to the practice mode.

The longer you stay there, the more cautious and tentative you will become. I struggle to see why having spent £150 on the software, why playing with £2 stakes for real is such a daunting prospect
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superfrank
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When I started out I did the usual small stakes stuff but I found it dull and didn't really concentrate or trade properly (because, subconsciously, I knew it didn't really matter what the net result was).

I went to reasonable sized stakes very early (too early probably and lost plenty of money) but looking back I don't regret those losses because it forced me to up my game.

The other thing to note is that if you are playing with small stakes, or in practice mode, your money has no effect on the market, so you cannot compare results anyway imo.

You need to get comfortable with risk (I've always been a bit of a gambler and I actually think that helped in some ways because I was used to winning and losing reasonable sums).
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Thanks for the advice guys.
superfrank wrote:When I started out I did the usual small stakes stuff but I found it dull and didn't really concentrate or trade properly (because, subconsciously, I knew it didn't really matter what the net result was).
I don't find trading in practice mode dull, but I do find my concentration wavers (which is something I intend to address). And that's been part of the problem. Unless you're being systematic, and saying 'I'm doing to do x today, and stick to it rigorously, and then analyse the results', at the end of the trading day you'll have pressed lots of buttons, but achieved little! You won't be any closer to knowing whether your theories work!

Another challenge that needs to be addressed (which is related to concentration) is not letting the self-critical voice inside your head sabotage you, causing you to do silly things like going in-play or increase your stop just because a spike went against you.

When I was playing with real money, my first race of the day was often profitable, and sooner or later it went downhill. That would suggest that I did well when I was mentally fresh, but lost my concentration later on. It reminds me of a line from Top Gun: 'You get bored, do something stupid, and he's got you'. :lol:
superfrank wrote:You need to get comfortable with risk
I am comfortable with risk. Until not so long ago, I was quite happy to place anything up to 100 ten pound each way bets per day, on horses up to 100/1 (the average odds were about 16/1). But the reason I was confident was that I was pretty sure I had a long-term edge.

And with Betfair, once I'm sure I know what I'm doing (and I'm not that far off), I'll be able to just ignore my losing trades, and plug away, gradually increasing my stakes.

Jeff

PS If anyone is wondering what the People's Front of Judea was a reference to (and you're not offended by blashpemous humour), have a look at this clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55fqjw2J ... e=youtu.be :lol:
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

PS On the topic of the importance to trading of concentration, I'd recommend people have a look at this thread:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4109&hilit=definitely+quinny#p28865

Jeff
PeterLe
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superfrank wrote:When I started out I did the usual small stakes stuff but I found it dull and didn't really concentrate or trade properly (because, subconsciously, I knew it didn't really matter what the net result was).
Couldnt agree with this more.

Jeff - You have to fully commit yourself body and soul. After two years on here you know the principles well enough. When you say "nearly there" you have to define this point (at least to yourself) or you will never know when you get 'there'.
My advice at this stage of your progression would be to concentrate on one thing (why not football, as you clearly have a passion for it). there was a couple of posts this week that will give you at least two pointers that you could trade and easily make a couple of thousand a month from. From there it is just a case of upping your stakes. The football markets are awash with money. You only have to be better than average to make it pay.

here is another wiki link :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shit_or_get_off_the_pot

Have a go. I would love to see you posting a good P&L in the New Year

Regards
Peter
Iron
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PeterLe wrote: Jeff - You have to fully commit yourself body and soul.
I agree. And thanks for the frank advice. :)
PeterLe wrote:After two years on here you know the principles well enough.
To cut a long story short, there's something I want to practice before I go live. But there has to be a cut-off point, and hopefully it will be days, not weeks, before I go live.
PeterLe wrote:My advice at this stage of your progression would be to concentrate on one thing (why not football, as you clearly have a passion for it).
I'd love to be able to trade football, particularly as the liquidity is so much greater than horse racing.

But as I'm primarily a swing trader, and as I have so much more experience of pre-race trading, horse racing might be a better option for me.
PeterLe wrote:Have a go. I would love to see you posting a good P&L in the New Year.
Thanks Peter! :)

One of two things will have happened come the New Year. Either I'll have called time on my trading, or I'll be making a living from it!

Jeff
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