I was reading The Blog the other day and Peter mentioned that he had had his first losing event (race) in eighty, a success rate of 98.75%. It made me wonder how other users go on. My rate had been 65% until last week since when I can hardly get a trade to go right, tonight my event success rate had sunk to about 43% for another tasty loss (one race had 7 trades, one breaking even and six losing ones)
I'd be intrigued to know other users fare,
cheers, P
Event Success Rate
Be careful of using my record run to set your own expectations, not a realistic goal!
But you should be able to achieve much higher rates than 50% even if you poke around at random. My rate has dipped this month but that's no suprise as the racing is often pretty miserable!
Rgds,
Peter
But you should be able to achieve much higher rates than 50% even if you poke around at random. My rate has dipped this month but that's no suprise as the racing is often pretty miserable!
Rgds,
Peter
Lol,
that's exactly what I thought (the random trading bit, the strike was was amazing but clearly unrealistic), however, I recently backed 13 losing favourites with a minimum percentage strike rate of 33% (by course and race type) in a row at least a 1 in 1,816,848 shot if my maths is correct. Strangely enough when I tried my hand at laying the winning losing to me of course) strike rate touched 80% at times. So whilst I love Herbert Yardleys quote of "I don't believe in luck, only the immutable laws of mathematics" and I'm a Civil Engineer by profession where design is governed by mathematics, logic and experience, I haven't yet dismissed the concept of "The luck gene" entirely. Interestingly, or maybe not, the 6 losing trades were not all lays on a rising market or the reverse, they were a mix on a fairly static market. All that aside, the software appeals to me like the flashing lights and beeps of a one arm bandit to some, I love to watch all the the flashing numbers and graphs, fascinating product,
cheers, P
that's exactly what I thought (the random trading bit, the strike was was amazing but clearly unrealistic), however, I recently backed 13 losing favourites with a minimum percentage strike rate of 33% (by course and race type) in a row at least a 1 in 1,816,848 shot if my maths is correct. Strangely enough when I tried my hand at laying the winning losing to me of course) strike rate touched 80% at times. So whilst I love Herbert Yardleys quote of "I don't believe in luck, only the immutable laws of mathematics" and I'm a Civil Engineer by profession where design is governed by mathematics, logic and experience, I haven't yet dismissed the concept of "The luck gene" entirely. Interestingly, or maybe not, the 6 losing trades were not all lays on a rising market or the reverse, they were a mix on a fairly static market. All that aside, the software appeals to me like the flashing lights and beeps of a one arm bandit to some, I love to watch all the the flashing numbers and graphs, fascinating product,
cheers, P
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MarkWraith
- Posts: 8
- Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:08 pm
Hi Prediction,
Do you tend to scalp or swing trade?
If you are scalping, then maybe you aren't being aggressive enough - the more turns you can get through a scalping market the more likely you are to win.
I think it was Peter's recent webinar where he pointed out that many people make the mistake of putting a single scalp bet into the market, waiting for it to fill on one side, waiting for the offset bet to fill, then putting another one in. More orders is better.
I'm a beginner as well but trying to get many orders through is working okay in scalping markets, for instance I got 83 orders in the 16:10 at Nottingham today.
I think if you are swing trading then you will naturally have a slightly lower strike rate. At swing trading I'm such a beginner that I don't even want to try to offer advice
Do you tend to scalp or swing trade?
If you are scalping, then maybe you aren't being aggressive enough - the more turns you can get through a scalping market the more likely you are to win.
I think it was Peter's recent webinar where he pointed out that many people make the mistake of putting a single scalp bet into the market, waiting for it to fill on one side, waiting for the offset bet to fill, then putting another one in. More orders is better.
I'm a beginner as well but trying to get many orders through is working okay in scalping markets, for instance I got 83 orders in the 16:10 at Nottingham today.
I think if you are swing trading then you will naturally have a slightly lower strike rate. At swing trading I'm such a beginner that I don't even want to try to offer advice
Hi Mark,
thanks for the comments. I tend to scalp, but I suppose that I'm unable to read the markets yet. I am a little bemused because, as Peter said, even choosing randomly, assuming a relatively stable market I should be able to get a 50% strike rate. I would be "over the moon" as they used to say, to get one successful scalp per event, never mind several, but the example I quoted relating to seven trades attempted one breaking even, six losing on a stable market, illustrates my perennial problem. On a seperate matter you may have noticed that my "calcs" were in error, the 13 losing sequence should have been a maximum 1 in 182 shot, I feel miles better about that, lol.
Cheers, P
thanks for the comments. I tend to scalp, but I suppose that I'm unable to read the markets yet. I am a little bemused because, as Peter said, even choosing randomly, assuming a relatively stable market I should be able to get a 50% strike rate. I would be "over the moon" as they used to say, to get one successful scalp per event, never mind several, but the example I quoted relating to seven trades attempted one breaking even, six losing on a stable market, illustrates my perennial problem. On a seperate matter you may have noticed that my "calcs" were in error, the 13 losing sequence should have been a maximum 1 in 182 shot, I feel miles better about that, lol.
Cheers, P