Appears simple but is devilishly difficult.

We were all new to Bet Angel once. Ask any question you like here and fellow forum members promise not to laugh. Betfair trading made simple.
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Cards37
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Location: Canberra, Australia

Thanks - hopefully it can be resurrected. Lot of great stuff in this thread. Reading old threads can be enthralling I’ve used up several hours today doing so. Now to try and put it all in order mentally!
stueytrader
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LeTiss wrote:
Mon May 15, 2017 10:18 am
I would just like to add, that it's about getting the balance right.

It's very easy when you get to a point of being carefree about your trading, that you cross a line and become careless. I am still emotional about my trading, and that's because I recognise who I am - the moment I stop giving a shit, is the moment I become reckless
Just found this quote from some time back - really resonating with myself currently.

Been having one of those 'hot' runs that we all know of (it's what makes the bad runs bearable). I've found myself feeling like my profits are basically making themselves with so little effort on my part - but I know that is dangerous too. Yesterday had a smaller setback, and started to wondered whether it was actually 'careless' rather than 'carefree'.

One thing I do know, I'm feeling very unstressed about trading recently - winning kind of does that I suppose. My general finances are looking fine which is also an aspect - I can see that even losing runs wouldn't bother me as much as they would have done in my past. That's also an aspect of this, where trading fits in your life and money in general.

Stu.
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wearthefoxhat
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Kai wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:01 pm
Apologies if I'm not allowed to post this but maybe this is the book that would benefit you most, "The Daily trading coach - 101 lessons for becoming your own trading psychologist", you can download a pdf version of it here https://atoast2trading.files.wordpress. ... 9_-a23.pdf

And then there's the obvious choice of "Trading in the zone" as well, you can find almost any such book online with a quick search in a pdf format if you don't want to actually pay for it.

I'm not really into books myself but a lot of people recommend those so you can't go wrong with that, a good book can explain things much more eloquently than any of us here on the forum.
Thanks for free download. (nearly 2 and half years ago) :)
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ShaunWhite
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Kai wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:01 pm
you can find almost any such book online with a quick search in a pdf format if you don't want to actually pay for it.
It's such a shame people have this attitude towards books (and software and music) because it's already hard enough to make a living from being a creative.

If you want a book then buy a new one so that the author gets paid because the consequence is that books of real quality and depth won't be published anymore and you'll be left with just the 5min recycled ebook rubbish. If a book helps you make ONE decent trade or stops ONE bad one then it's paid for itself. Yet another case of the acceptable face of casual theft and the insidious everything for nothing culture.

The next time Peter runs a course he should look out for people watching through the window.
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Derek27
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:15 pm
The next time Peter runs a course he should look out for people watching through the window.
It's on the sixth floor. ;)
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ShaunWhite
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:27 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:15 pm
The next time Peter runs a course he should look out for people watching through the window.
It's on the sixth floor. ;)
Drone? ;)
I know I'm touchy about it but I used to be a developer and my wife has written books, thievery isn't popular round here.
Korattt
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:27 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:15 pm
The next time Peter runs a course he should look out for people watching through the window.
It's on the sixth floor. ;)
has that damn toilet door been fixed yet?
tc_uk
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Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2017 2:50 am

I have a couple of comments from a real novices viewpoint (apologies as this is likely to bore some of you!).

As a newbie I've watched and read many many things. Yet, the following 2 questions/contradictions/confusions remain.

My first "issue" (or thing that is a little bit confusing) is the following.

I've read in many places, protect your bank, cut losses, small losses are better than bigger ones etc. etc. On the face of it, that's really sound advice. But, then you also read and see videos where they show you that the price is likely to zig-zag (or at least could) on the way to where it's going and so not to be so quick to get out of "losing" trades because as soon as you do you could then see the price go in the direction you initially wanted it to (due to this zig-zag effect).

For me as a newbie this feels like a contradiction, this does confuse matters in my head and creates indecision at times. Do I cut the trade or give it a bit longer as it might be on the dip about to go up? I find this can lead to bigger losses as it wasn't a dip but a continued rise or drop. The one thing that I take from this is that it's alot easier to act when faced with this situation if you are 100% sure what you will do when faced with a red screen and this situation before you even enter the trade. If you have clarity, it's far easier to act plus, you will likely act quicker too as you are "in waiting". For a newbie like myself, the issue is often following through with what you intended to do in such situations as sometimes something will happen which you're not expecting or accounting for and that can throw your good intentions through the window as thinking "off the cuff" is not good (and often leads to "freezing") especially when you're inexperienced in the markets.

My second comment is that I've read "don't go flip flopping between strategies when starting out". That's easy to say, but when you are new you don't know what works and you are often desperately seeking just one edge anywhere. In fact, I'd go as far to say that you crave just one, any edge! If you could actually find a "rough around the edges" edge then life would be easier as you could then spend time making that one edge more polished. I appreciate that many edges come about by continually re-evaluating what you are investigating and looking at and by removing the parts that don't work or are unprofitable. But, the problem you are faced with when starting is that even if you do that you still might not be left with something that can make you money on in the long term. I guess what I'm saying is that if you try something and you don't get a good "vibe" from it immediately this then leads to that approach being dumped and something else tried instead. I guess that's a lack of patience but for some things no matter how much you improve them, they still won't be profitable and as a newbie it's really hard to know if you are missing out on edges by dumping approaches too soon or not.

Sorry for my ramblings, but I guess these are the 2 points forefront in my head right now.

Thanks.
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Derek27
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The advice you generally hear about cutting your losses is all about not letting them get to big, or hanging on to a bad position in the hope, rather than reasoned expectation, that it will get better. It's certainly not about getting out the moment a market goes against you.

There's nothing wrong with testing several strategies at the same time but you have to give a strategy a reasonable amount of time or you could be throwing away what would have been a profitable method.

One problem with focusing for a long period of time on a single strategy and trying to "polish" it or remove the unprofitable parts is that you could be spending a lot of time and resources on a strategy that is fundamentally flawed. For many people the longer you spend working on a project the less willing you are to give it up.
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ShaunWhite
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tc_uk wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:27 am
Do I cut the trade or give it a bit longer as it might be on the dip about to go up?
If you try and assess how much noise there is in the market it might help you to judge how much adverse movement you are prepared to tollerate. Cheltenham might be 2 ticks, Wolves it might be 10.

Try and establish a level beyond which you condsider your trade to have broken down. Perhaps you're sat at 3.15 and you're hoping for a drift, it might wobble and touch 3, but if it goes below 3, how do you feel about it coming back?

I don't know how much industry knowledge you've arrived with, but taking bookmaker prices as an example ( ie how the world worked before the computer arrived), if a price is sat at 9/4 it could go either way, but if the price is trimmed to 2/1, how often have you seen it lengthen again? I've no stats to back it up, but I'd say a hold or a further shortening was far more likely than the price being pushed out again. Support and resistance around traditional odds equivalents seem to be going out of fashion a bit, but the underlying principals still are still worth considering. I know the correllation between bookies prices and exchange prices is debated and lots here will say it's the exchange that drives the prices, but when you have £300m traded on Aintree and only about 20mil of that came to the exchange, it does make you wonder if it's always the the case that the tail wags the dog, or not.

Sadly tc_uk, the sheer number of variables at play mean that even if people are shown a cold reading 'edge', without knowing all the ifs buts and maybes they're as good as useless. Unfortunately there's only ONE way to understand these ifs buts and maybes, to process them, and to act quickely, and that's to grind your way through 10,000 markets / 10,000 hrs / 10,000 grey hairs......and your P&L might start to move in the right direction.

Don't be put off though, when you first learnt to drive it was all mirrors, signals, pedals, looking around, road signs and it seemed overwhelming. A year down the line and you're cruising around, singing along to the radio and all that stuff has been handed over to the autopilot (your mental one obv, not the computer in your googlebug or whatever you drive).

Your brain is learning far more about the markets than you're conscious of right now, feed it enough data and it'll figure it out; you might not even know exactly how it's doing it, like riding a bike. (other transport related metaphores are available)
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ruthlessimon
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tc_uk wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:27 am
For me as a newbie this feels like a contradiction, this does confuse matters in my head and creates indecision at times. Do I cut the trade or give it a bit longer as it might be on the dip about to go up?
It is a contradiction, & it took me a while to realise - but an edge is what protects you from the above scenario - edge (that fits your goals) 1st, discipline/psychology 2nd.

Notice the difference between the following traders:

1. (This looks strong. It's just blown through my entry, I'm out, get me out now) - No edge, never should have traded. Good discipline (bank erosion)

2. (This looks strong. It's just blown through my entry, I'm holding, I'm holding, I can't get out down here in hindsight I should've been out at (___), I'm so annoyed with myself) - No edge, never should have traded. No edge has caused poor psychology (blown bank)

3. ("given a, b, x, y, z - I'm out here (___), but if x is _____, I might let it run a touch longer. We've gone through (___), x looks (_____), I'm out"). - Perfect trade (if a, b, x, y, z is valid)

4. ("given a, b, x, y, z - I'm out here (___), but if x is _____, I might let it run a touch longer. It's just blown through my exit, I'm holding, I'm holding, I can't get out down here") - Trader with an edge, but poor psychology - can't execute his edge.

It's important to understand that indecision you mention is a result of having no edge/not understanding your edge, & the psychological issue is a symptom. There are some cases where this isn't true, & certain traders will actively deny factual information - but that's rare imo. Most are never given factual information to deny!

Btw if there was a study on all BA traders I'd predict the following distribution:

1. 80%
2. 20%
3. 0.1%
4. 0.01%
Korattt
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anyone can find a concrete 100% edge, execute it flawlessly & still not make any money over a session, the markets will do what the markets want, took me a while for that to sink in,

take today for example, my edge tells me that I'm missing out certain markets today, why?, because certain conditions have not been met, however it doesn't mean to say that others don't have an edge on the markets I won't get involved in, it's just that I can't see what others see.. yet
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ruthlessimon
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Korattt wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:26 pm
anyone can find a concrete 100% edge, execute it flawlessly & still not make any money over a session, the markets will do what the markets want, took me a while for that to sink in, take today for example, my edge tells me that I'm missing out certain markets today, why?, because certain conditions have not been met
You've hit on a really nice point. & this is why trading is devilishly difficult.

Edge is only 1 part. You've also got to incorporate frequency & scale. - "strategy"

Those three aspects need to fit the trader's "goals & personality". If they don't - then a trader will struggle big time.
Korattt
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you can have two markets that exhibit identical behaviour 5 mins pre off & turn out completely different from each other, it's knowing when to bail out when the market tells you it isn't playing ball, take the 15:00 at Windsor, I haven't a clue how this may play out, so I'm swerving it..
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:20 pm
Btw if there was a study on all BA traders I'd predict the following distribution:

1. 80%
2. 20%
3. 0.1%
4. 0.01%
I'm going ...
1. 70%
2. 20%
3. 5%
4. 5%

Some very interesting stuff being said in here.
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