tc_uk wrote: ↑Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:27 am
Do I cut the trade or give it a bit longer as it might be on the dip about to go up?
If you try and assess how much noise there is in the market it might help you to judge how much adverse movement you are prepared to tollerate. Cheltenham might be 2 ticks, Wolves it might be 10.
Try and establish a level beyond which you condsider your trade to have broken down. Perhaps you're sat at 3.15 and you're hoping for a drift, it might wobble and touch 3, but if it goes below 3, how do you feel about it coming back?
I don't know how much industry knowledge you've arrived with, but taking bookmaker prices as an example ( ie how the world worked before the computer arrived), if a price is sat at 9/4 it could go either way, but if the price is trimmed to 2/1, how often have you seen it lengthen again? I've no stats to back it up, but I'd say a hold or a further shortening was far more likely than the price being pushed out again. Support and resistance around traditional odds equivalents seem to be going out of fashion a bit, but the underlying principals still are still worth considering. I know the correllation between bookies prices and exchange prices is debated and lots here will say it's the exchange that drives the prices, but when you have £300m traded on Aintree and only about 20mil of that came to the exchange, it does make you wonder if it's always the the case that the tail wags the dog, or not.
Sadly tc_uk, the sheer number of variables at play mean that even if people are shown a cold reading 'edge', without knowing all the ifs buts and maybes they're as good as useless. Unfortunately there's only ONE way to understand these ifs buts and maybes, to process them, and to act quickely, and that's to grind your way through 10,000 markets / 10,000 hrs / 10,000 grey hairs......and your P&L
might start to move in the right direction.
Don't be put off though, when you first learnt to drive it was all mirrors, signals, pedals, looking around, road signs and it seemed overwhelming. A year down the line and you're cruising around, singing along to the radio and all that stuff has been handed over to the autopilot (your mental one obv, not the computer in your googlebug or whatever you drive).
Your brain is learning far more about the markets than you're conscious of right now, feed it enough data and it'll figure it out; you might not even know
exactly how it's doing it, like riding a bike. (other transport related metaphores are available)