When the gods are against you!!!!!!!

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mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

The VDW ratings are based on consistent form and class of race.

If a football team wins 10 matches on the bounce in the conference league the figures look impressive!

Now put that team against a premiership side that team is stepping up in class and thus the form figures mean nothing!!!!!

What is form if it not achieved in the right class?

Most people struggle with this!!!!

:D
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

mhorro wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:18 pm
The VDW ratings are based on consistent form and class of race.

If a football team wins 10 matches on the bounce in the conference league the figures look impressive!

Now put that team against a premiership side that team is stepping up in class and thus the form figures mean nothing!!!!!

What is form if it not achieved in the right class?

Most people struggle with this!!!!

:D
With respect Mhorro, I figured out form figures are irrelevant without considering the class of the races when I was 12-years-old, but by the time I was 14, I realised they are both completely irrelevant without considering a number of other factors.

Do you remember Flagship Uberalles and Tresor De Mai finishing 1-2 in the Kingmaker at Warwick? They went on to finish 1-2 in the Arkle, which proves the prize money is irrelevant - it's the horses you race against that defines class.

You can't compare an up and coming novice to a 13-year-old former champion well past his best, by looking at average prize money won!

VDW ratings probably put Dream Ahead above Frankle in the Dewhurst stakes, and Canford Cliffs ahead of him in the Sussex stakes. Anyone with a bit of intelligence would ignore form figures and prize money won, and look at the way the horse races and the quality of the horses he beat. Does VDW take into account the ease and distance Frankle won the Royal Lodge Stakes with?

I've made money betting in the past, by studying all aspects of horse racing (form just being one of them) - it's difficult enough to make money betting when you take everything into consideration without restriction. If you restrict yourself to form figures, prize money won, and other daft variables without a proper understanding of horse racing, you don't have a cat in hell's chance of winning!!

Don't forget, VDW's method was invented in the days when most races weren't televised, the exchange didn't exist, there were only a handful of bookies and they didn't price up every race and had much larger overrounds. Most people would bet at SP, which was controlled by bookies so they could only guess what price they were getting. There wouldn't have been many professional gamblers at the time, and the 10% betting turnover tax would have made it near impossible for almost everyone to win anyway. They were the days when most gamblers (me included) were deluded into thinking we can win, and a 5/4 winner suddenly gives you the hope that you're on to a winning system. :lol:

An idiot like VDW couldn't possibly have won anything with methods like that. The 1980's was a time when many gamblers claimed to win, but now is a time when many gamblers can and do win - but you're not likely to by using 1980's methods.
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Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Is this system in the book your selling?

Must've been going that well!
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