if youd be able to control your arbs losing more often on betfair youd still be better of just placing the value bets
just babble, lucky they lost more on betfair talking rubbish
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It's not a question of controlling your arbs. If you arb US racing you are guaranteed to lose on Berfair, so much so that I regret ever arbing US racing. I should have let the bets run.
what im saying, no point losing on betfair on purpose to avoid pc, stick to the bookmaker bets if they are the value
what bookmaker offers good odds on us racing, isnt it mostly tote betting?
Problem is, I didn't realise that until they closed all my accounts!
All of them. Here's the best example I've found and posted before. I was just a few seconds too late to get on the fav at 33/1. But I agree with you, if you can get on at 33/1 and see the price crash, don't arb, just let it run.
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33/1 about a 3/1 fav is palpable error, not an arb.
Can’t see you getting paid out on too many of those.
Can’t see you getting paid out on too many of those.
Sure maybe but I wouldn't be so quick to assume, you're closing your mind to the opportunity doing that.
Barely no vol. around until last thing in those markets so not hard to imagine this as an extreme case however probs limited in how much you can get on to reflect extra risk bookie is taking on. Until the info arrives in the market in the form of betting activity they can't possibly know to update the price compared to their initial source or model as nothing has changed. And there is always a lag so that price offered to punter isn't bouncing around everywhere as they try to wager. If you have bf and bookie open/ready you can hit them in that window all the time. If you're slow they let you know price has changed before confirming bet so you just cancel it and no worse off.
In hindsight a Q in the survery regarding use of bookies by traders would have been interesting.
Barely no vol. around until last thing in those markets so not hard to imagine this as an extreme case however probs limited in how much you can get on to reflect extra risk bookie is taking on. Until the info arrives in the market in the form of betting activity they can't possibly know to update the price compared to their initial source or model as nothing has changed. And there is always a lag so that price offered to punter isn't bouncing around everywhere as they try to wager. If you have bf and bookie open/ready you can hit them in that window all the time. If you're slow they let you know price has changed before confirming bet so you just cancel it and no worse off.
In hindsight a Q in the survery regarding use of bookies by traders would have been interesting.
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I'd be surprised any bookie would let you have more than a fiver on and you'd be limited as soon as the first one went in. But seems a lot of people are able to arb thousands out of their accounts weekly via the online books.TraderFred wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:48 am33/1 about a 3/1 fav is palpable error, not an arb.
Can’t see you getting paid out on too many of those.
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It's what Derek said he does, arbs the winnings to the bookie accounts.
Did he?spreadbetting wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:01 amIt's what Derek said he does, arbs the winnings to the bookie accounts.
Only one guy 'does it' and that's the furry animal but he loses on both accounts
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Yep, even explained how to do it. Was a bit beyond me though as I had trouble maintaining bookie account for a few ticks when I was arbing, wasn't lucky enough to get the 33/1-2/1's to arb thousands out each week.Naffman wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:47 amDid he?spreadbetting wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:01 amIt's what Derek said he does, arbs the winnings to the bookie accounts.
Only one guy 'does it' and that's the furry animal but he loses on both accounts
viewtopic.php?f=15&t=15654&start=10#p142678
viewtopic.php?p=172751#p172751
2/1 actually. You'd be surprised, I've been paid out on 16/1s going off at 7/2. It certainly wasn't a palpable error - you just need to look at the overround and the price of the others. The reality is, bookies don't have a clue what chance a US horse in a low-grade race has.TraderFred wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:48 am33/1 about a 3/1 fav is palpable error, not an arb.
Can’t see you getting paid out on too many of those.
Can you quote the post where I said that, that is, losing on Betfair on purpose to reduce PC?spreadbetting wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:01 amIt's what Derek said he does, arbs the winnings to the bookie accounts.
I'm getting really sick of going over the arbing/PC conversation again and again. I think I've put you straight on this about three times. Even if your above quote was true, when referencing a post two-and-a-half years old you shouldn't be talking in present tense!
Last edited by Derek27 on Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Either way, it sounds like account closing activity to me derek27.
Sounds like you’ve had a right few touches though. I imagine to celebrate, you headed down to the local off license or supermarket, switched a few price labels around, and got yourself a nice bottle of veuve cliquot, for £ 3.50 !
Sounds like you’ve had a right few touches though. I imagine to celebrate, you headed down to the local off license or supermarket, switched a few price labels around, and got yourself a nice bottle of veuve cliquot, for £ 3.50 !