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rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

if youd be able to control your arbs losing more often on betfair youd still be better of just placing the value bets
just babble, lucky they lost more on betfair talking rubbish
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Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

rik wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:53 pm
if youd be able to control your arbs losing more often on betfair youd still be better of just placing the value bets
just babble, lucky they lost more on betfair talking rubbish
It's not a question of controlling your arbs. If you arb US racing you are guaranteed to lose on Berfair, so much so that I regret ever arbing US racing. I should have let the bets run.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

Derek27 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:52 pm
rik wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:53 pm
if youd be able to control your arbs losing more often on betfair youd still be better of just placing the value bets
just babble, lucky they lost more on betfair talking rubbish
It's not a question of controlling your arbs. If you arb US racing you are guaranteed to lose on Berfair, so much so that I regret ever arbing US racing. I should have let the bets run.
what im saying, no point losing on betfair on purpose to avoid pc, stick to the bookmaker bets if they are the value
what bookmaker offers good odds on us racing, isnt it mostly tote betting?
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Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

rik wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:56 pm
what im saying, no point losing on betfair on purpose to avoid pc, stick to the bookmaker bets if they are the value
Problem is, I didn't realise that until they closed all my accounts!
rik wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:56 pm
what bookmaker offers good odds on us racing, isnt it mostly tote betting?
All of them. Here's the best example I've found and posted before. I was just a few seconds too late to get on the fav at 33/1. But I agree with you, if you can get on at 33/1 and see the price crash, don't arb, just let it run.
WH madness.PNG
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TraderFred
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

33/1 about a 3/1 fav is palpable error, not an arb.

Can’t see you getting paid out on too many of those.
eightbo
Posts: 2154
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Malta / Australia

Sure maybe but I wouldn't be so quick to assume, you're closing your mind to the opportunity doing that.

Barely no vol. around until last thing in those markets so not hard to imagine this as an extreme case however probs limited in how much you can get on to reflect extra risk bookie is taking on. Until the info arrives in the market in the form of betting activity they can't possibly know to update the price compared to their initial source or model as nothing has changed. And there is always a lag so that price offered to punter isn't bouncing around everywhere as they try to wager. If you have bf and bookie open/ready you can hit them in that window all the time. If you're slow they let you know price has changed before confirming bet so you just cancel it and no worse off.

In hindsight a Q in the survery regarding use of bookies by traders would have been interesting.
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

eightbo wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:51 am
In hindsight a Q in the survery regarding use of bookies by traders would have been interesting.
I might run another survey in a couple of months (with different questions) and include that one. 👍
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

TraderFred wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:48 am
33/1 about a 3/1 fav is palpable error, not an arb.

Can’t see you getting paid out on too many of those.
I'd be surprised any bookie would let you have more than a fiver on and you'd be limited as soon as the first one went in. But seems a lot of people are able to arb thousands out of their accounts weekly via the online books.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

real good strategy to lose on purpose to avoid premium charge...
whos telling you that?
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

It's what Derek said he does, arbs the winnings to the bookie accounts.
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Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

spreadbetting wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:01 am
It's what Derek said he does, arbs the winnings to the bookie accounts.
Did he?

Only one guy 'does it' and that's the furry animal but he loses on both accounts :P
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Naffman wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:47 am
spreadbetting wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:01 am
It's what Derek said he does, arbs the winnings to the bookie accounts.
Did he?

Only one guy 'does it' and that's the furry animal but he loses on both accounts :P
Yep, even explained how to do it. Was a bit beyond me though as I had trouble maintaining bookie account for a few ticks when I was arbing, wasn't lucky enough to get the 33/1-2/1's to arb thousands out each week.

viewtopic.php?f=15&t=15654&start=10#p142678

viewtopic.php?p=172751#p172751
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Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

TraderFred wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:48 am
33/1 about a 3/1 fav is palpable error, not an arb.

Can’t see you getting paid out on too many of those.
2/1 actually. You'd be surprised, I've been paid out on 16/1s going off at 7/2. It certainly wasn't a palpable error - you just need to look at the overround and the price of the others. The reality is, bookies don't have a clue what chance a US horse in a low-grade race has.
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Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

spreadbetting wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:01 am
It's what Derek said he does, arbs the winnings to the bookie accounts.
Can you quote the post where I said that, that is, losing on Betfair on purpose to reduce PC?

I'm getting really sick of going over the arbing/PC conversation again and again. I think I've put you straight on this about three times. Even if your above quote was true, when referencing a post two-and-a-half years old you shouldn't be talking in present tense! :roll:
Last edited by Derek27 on Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
TraderFred
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

Either way, it sounds like account closing activity to me derek27.

Sounds like you’ve had a right few touches though. I imagine to celebrate, you headed down to the local off license or supermarket, switched a few price labels around, and got yourself a nice bottle of veuve cliquot, for £ 3.50 !
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