Anyone read any good books?

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jimibt
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PeterLe wrote:This was recommended on another Blog:-

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Perfect-Bet-Sc ... 8&qid=&sr=

Thought Id give it a try
yeah, i saw this on here just the other day: http://www.betfairprotrader.co.uk/2016/ ... t-bet.html

thought it looked kinda great too...
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megarain
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The guy that wrote it, was on the GMWE podcast.

http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/tag/perfect-bet
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jimibt
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megarain wrote:The guy that wrote it, was on the GMWE podcast.

http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/tag/perfect-bet
thanks - will check that out later. appreciated
PeterLe
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Thanks will download the podcast and ill let you know if the book is worth reading too
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rinconpaul
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I'm reading "The perfect Bet: How science and maths are taking the luck out of gambling"
I highly recommend it, and was gobsmacked when I read a piece about a statistician Pierre Verhulst 1868, who was investigating potential limits to population. To calculate the population density in a particular year using a logistic map, he multiplied three factors together? It resulted in a chart that looked like the first one in the attachment. The second one is the chart of Betfair price for Australian Rules side Richmond today.

Remarkably familiar pattern? What's going on here?
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The dog of ry
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If you could chart the confidence levels of Richmond's season ticket holders, it would look eerily similar... starts out high, finishes off low, year after year after year
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Euler
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I haven't read that book yet, but it looks interesting. But there are quite a few similar ones out there I've read over the years. The really interesting thing about a lot of these books is that the authors have opinions and judgements on the subject matter but none actually put it to use! It's rare to find a book where that is actually the case. It seems there is often a disconnected between intellectuals, opinions and actually doing it.

I was trying to solve a particularly hard problems and wheeled in an expert to help solve the problem. But he advised me not to do it. I told him that actually it was just the final piece of a puzzle, but he just wouldn't have it that I was going to put money on it. He swore blind it wouldn't work for a number of reasons, despite me showing him it was working. He just felt it was a 'lucky streak'.

Thinking, saying is one thing. Doing entirely another.
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LeTiss
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You could say that about every industry in life, Peter. I am a cynical sod, and I often wondered about the guy who taught me 'A' level Business Studies. His name was Mr Goffin, and he was a miserable sod, he hated his job, and hated arrogant teenagers. I often thought.....if he knew so much about Business, then why isn't he out there putting it to use, making his own money and not having to deal with the inflexible education system, and unappreciative 17 year-olds
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Euler
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Y, you see if everywhere.
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Dallas
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Euler wrote:I was trying to solve a particularly hard problems and wheeled in an expert to help solve the problem. But he advised me not to do it. I told him that actually it was just the final piece of a puzzle, but he just wouldn't have it that I was going to put money on it. He swore blind it wouldn't work for a number of reasons, despite me showing him it was working. He just felt it was a 'lucky streak'
You did nt wheel in 'thisisgambling' from last year did you :lol:
kodiac
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Euler wrote:I haven't read that book yet, but it looks interesting. But there are quite a few similar ones out there I've read over the years. The really interesting thing about a lot of these books is that the authors have opinions and judgements on the subject matter but none actually put it to use! It's rare to find a book where that is actually the case. It seems there is often a disconnected between intellectuals, opinions and actually doing it.

I was trying to solve a particularly hard problems and wheeled in an expert to help solve the problem. But he advised me not to do it. I told him that actually it was just the final piece of a puzzle, but he just wouldn't have it that I was going to put money on it. He swore blind it wouldn't work for a number of reasons, despite me showing him it was working. He just felt it was a 'lucky streak'.

Thinking, saying is one thing. Doing entirely another.
Nassim taleb talks about this, using the character of fat tony the wall street trader, a guy who isnt academic but can trade, vs the ivy league elite who know all but are not profitable.
kodiac
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https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/085719495X/ ... T58VMND3TE

I agree on Kahnemann. Other useful reads are Maximum willpower (interesting bits on neurobiology of impulses), reminisences of a stock operator, getting things done, eat that frog.
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rinconpaul
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Nassim taleb talks about this, using the character of fat tony the wall street trader, a guy who isnt academic but can trade, vs the ivy league elite who know all but are not profitable
You're right there. A website exists in Australia called Matter of Stats. It is dedicated to Australian Rules Football predictions using the best statistical models available. Results?....well let's just say, "Stick to your day job!"

Reading that book does leave you with a healthy respect for genius though, but having a PhD in Maths, doesn't necessarily qualify, or give you any advantage over Joe Average. Average human intelligence can pick up on nuances that a bot could never. It might be as simple as noticing the poker player opposite you, scratches his left ear lobe when he's got a good hand? There's no substitute for good ideas, something a machine learning bot can't reproduce.
PeterLe
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PeterLe wrote:This was recommended on another Blog:-

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Perfect-Bet-Sc ... 8&qid=&sr=

Thought Id give it a try
Finished reading this last night.
The kindle showed that I had only completed 59% of the book and I was waiting for it to get interesting only to find that the remaining 41% was the contents pages and that I was at the end of book!
I dont want to sound like a know it all, but I really didnt find anything that I hadnt read before nor knew already.

I still think the best book on a similar theme is Fortunes Formula by Poundstone

Regards
Peter
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marksmeets302
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I still think the best book on a similar theme is Fortunes Formula by Poundstone
Loved that book! It's so full of knowledge, and very accessible.
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