Nassim taleb talks about this, using the character of fat tony the wall street trader, a guy who isnt academic but can trade, vs the ivy league elite who know all but are not profitable
You're right there. A website exists in Australia called Matter of Stats. It is dedicated to Australian Rules Football predictions using the best statistical models available. Results?....well let's just say, "
Stick to your day job!"
Reading that book does leave you with a healthy respect for genius though, but having a PhD in Maths, doesn't necessarily qualify, or give you any advantage over Joe Average. Average human intelligence can pick up on nuances that a bot could never. It might be as simple as noticing the poker player opposite you, scratches his left ear lobe when he's got a good hand? There's no substitute for good ideas, something a machine learning bot can't reproduce.