Anyone read any good books?

[marksmeets302]

It's what I would call a transformative book. You will not be the same again once you have read it.

Just got it from the library. According to my wife that was already a transformative experience for me; normally I go directly to amazon.com

[marksmeets302]

'Thinking fast and slow' - Daniel Kahneman

I'm now halfway through and not disappointed. At first I thought "I already know this stuff, the gist of it being that we're all bad at statistics". Since then I had to revise that thought: it's more like we think we know a lot, but we don't know shit. Even after we were just shown (and agreed with) that we don't know anything.

I've spoken to quite a few people about the book already, and I introduce it with my favorite part: Kahneman goes to a guy training fighter pilots and says "it's better to reward people for their actions than to punish". To which the trainer answers: "Hell no! If I praise a pilot for an outstanding maneuver, he'll do worse next time. But if I yell at someone that screwed up, he's bound to do better!" To which Kahneman starts thinking... the trainer is both right and wrong. What he sees is regression towards the mean. The pilot that did really well did better than his average, and did so by luck. The guy that flunked did worse than his average, also by luck. Next training their performances resembled their average more closely. It had nothing to do with the trainers response.

Reading the book gives you the feeling we're all stumbling through life. Some more successful than others, but more often than not this is through sheer luck.

I've always been a big believer in modelling: if you want to master a skill, copy from those that have already mastered it. Now I realize that this can only be applied to situations were there is sufficient evidence they have mastered it. Trading horse races: some of us here have traded over 100.000 races, something that can be seen as a repeatable task. Eventually the role of luck is diminished. But if you copy the actions of the founders of google, would you get an equally successful company? I doubt it.

[xitian]

I've bought Kahneman's book, but haven't yet read it. I expect it's really up my alley though.

Reading the book gives you the feeling we're all stumbling through life. Some more successful than others, but more often than not this is through sheer luck.

I think that's really well put. I've recently begun to think that more strongly too. Any luck I've had on Betfair is really through having had the right education, experiences, timing, etc.. none of which I could have planned to have. I think that also helps to keep me grounded, not take things for granted, and be prepared for when luck doesn't take the right turn for me, as the one thing that's certain: everything changes eventually. In the meantime I'll just keep riding my luck

At the same time, if I had rolled the dice again, who's to say I wouldn't have ended up more successful than I am today and founding Google like your example. But in any case, there will always be someone who's more successful than you, and brings to question how you define success anyway.

[Euler]

Currently reading....

Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions

[knome]

One of my favourite books of all time is The Art of Coarse Rugby by Michael Green.

The Art of Coarse Trading would no doubt include an anecdote about desperately scrabbling up a ladder when interrupted by the Mrs asking for your opinion on curtains.

[PeterLe]

PROGRAMMING FOR BETFAIR,
This looks very interesting has anyone read or tried this ?thanks
Marc
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1511 ... 5NG54VHQ2S

Marc,
Im half way through this.
I dont know if you've ever programmed before. If you havent, I think you may find it a hard slog (not impossible though).

The problems come when you encounter errors in the programming (usually the code you enter may not be correct or the wrong syntax) whilst some are easy to fix others not so. Part of the learning process

If you put the hours in, Im sure the pay off will be worth it.

As indicated within the Amazon LIsting; James has ceased support now.

Id be very interested to know if anyone else has worked their way through the book too and what your experiences are?
Thanks
Regards
Peter

[andyfuller]

There are several interesting looking books on offer on Amazon kindle summer sale until 31st August 2016:

Black Box Thinking: The Surprising Truth About Success - £1.99:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Black-Box-Thin ... 73&sr=1-20

Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces that Shape Our Decisions - £1.99:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Predictably-Ir ... 1&sr=1-186

The Persuaders: The hidden industry that wants to change your mind - £1.39:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Persuaders-hid ... 7&sr=1-389

I Think You'll Find It's a Bit More Complicated Than That - £2.49:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Think-Youll-Fi ... 5&sr=1-144

[megarain]

Just finished fictional book, (detective story), called

The Silkworm .. and thought it v good.

Poker book, Mollys Game was v good.

Not my Grandfathers Wall St (mentioned on here, earlier), v good.

[PeterLe]

This was recommended on another Blog:-

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Perfect-Bet-Sc ... 8&qid=&sr=

Thought Id give it a try

[andyfuller]

Let us know what you think to it Peter.

[jimibt]

This was recommended on another Blog:-

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Perfect-Bet-Sc ... 8&qid=&sr=

Thought Id give it a try

yeah, i saw this on here just the other day: http://www.betfairprotrader.co.uk/2016/ ... t-bet.html

thought it looked kinda great too...

[megarain]

The guy that wrote it, was on the GMWE podcast.

http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/tag/perfect-bet

[jimibt]

The guy that wrote it, was on the GMWE podcast.

http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/tag/perfect-bet

thanks - will check that out later. appreciated

[PeterLe]

Thanks will download the podcast and ill let you know if the book is worth reading too

[rinconpaul]

I'm reading "The perfect Bet: How science and maths are taking the luck out of gambling"
I highly recommend it, and was gobsmacked when I read a piece about a statistician Pierre Verhulst 1868, who was investigating potential limits to population. To calculate the population density in a particular year using a logistic map, he multiplied three factors together? It resulted in a chart that looked like the first one in the attachment. The second one is the chart of Betfair price for Australian Rules side Richmond today.

Remarkably familiar pattern? What's going on here?