staking plans
Hi, I have used betangel on and off for a few years now. Recentlye I have sigend up to the other softwares, purely because I work full time and want my systems fully automated. The only reason I cant uae betangel is because you so mot incorporate staking plans. I have a couple of systems where I use a recovery plan dependent on the last result. Is there anyway I can make a system like this work using excel. I have seen other software has linked there spreadsheet to the staking machine.
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marksmeets302
- Posts: 527
- Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm
Any staking plan that has the intent to win back money that was lost will eventually lead to ruin. The mistake is in that the previous race result has nothing to do with the current one. It's like doubling your stake at the roulette table after a losing round. Very often this will turn out well, but after enough rounds you will end up broke.
Stay away from these plans. Risk a fixed percentage of your bank (google for kelly criterion to find an upper bound for this percentage) or use a flat stake. (There's an upper bound to the amount of money the market can absorb which unfortunately is easily reached)
Stay away from these plans. Risk a fixed percentage of your bank (google for kelly criterion to find an upper bound for this percentage) or use a flat stake. (There's an upper bound to the amount of money the market can absorb which unfortunately is easily reached)
I've seen it myself with very capable individuals failing in Sports Trading. I've seen comments from yourself on many occasions, how so many people mess up because they cannot accept a lossEuler wrote:Best practice guidelines by the gambling commission actually prohibit us from implementing a 'loss recovery' style plan for the reasons stated above. You may get lucky but eventually you will do your nuts.
What Frank Cole is asking for would ruin so many aspiring traders!
Chasing losers in Betting/Trading is just like Russian Roulette. You may be lucky enough to find a couple of blanks initially, but eventually your luck will run out, and when it does......there's no coming back!
I've noticed a tendency in football markets for people to not take sensible positions but to effectively chase the loss, secondary market to try and escape the loss in the primary market. This is essentially no different to a "loss recovery system".
I did some great work on the martingale system many years ago to demonstrate effectively why will ultimately fail. I think I may have to do a video on it.
I did some great work on the martingale system many years ago to demonstrate effectively why will ultimately fail. I think I may have to do a video on it.
Football traders in general love chasing losses and a huge number of markets per match enables them to do just that. Coming from various gambling backgrounds doesn't help either. Most of my friends had gambling/betting issues so they are unable to trade football properly without getting into trouble every now and again. I have absolutely no idea how to help them because we don't come from the same background, I mentored a couple of them and by far the biggest issue was always "accepting losses". I don't know how to adjust their mentality and to think of losses as just a normal part of trading, some of them understand but they still find a way to regularly chase losses.
But on the other side of the coin, real footy traders directly benefit from such behaviour, it makes football markets that much easier to trade.
But on the other side of the coin, real footy traders directly benefit from such behaviour, it makes football markets that much easier to trade.
Hi Guys,
Thanks for the comments, and I do agree with you to a point. The system I have implemented, I have used for a month or so now, not risking much money, and one strategy did blow up but the other I have had no real issues on. I am not using it on the football markets neither, I am looking at greyhounds for these stratgies. theory behind it is simlar to roulette many races not massive volume hence the strategy.
Thanks for the comments, and I do agree with you to a point. The system I have implemented, I have used for a month or so now, not risking much money, and one strategy did blow up but the other I have had no real issues on. I am not using it on the football markets neither, I am looking at greyhounds for these stratgies. theory behind it is simlar to roulette many races not massive volume hence the strategy.
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marksmeets302
- Posts: 527
- Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm
That's either one awesome backing system, or you use it to lay horses. Since you want to chase losses, I'm assuming it is to lay. That's a bit unfortunate because what you have here is a system with a negative expectancy: suppose you bet 1 pound on every race, then in 5 races you will have 4 winners. This will give you 4 pounds. But you will also have one loser which will cost you 4.62. So after 5 races you will make a net loss of 0.62.
Except if you can predict if the next race will be a winner or loser (which you can't) there exists no staking plan that will turn this into a long term profitable system. Quit while you are ahead !
Except if you can predict if the next race will be a winner or loser (which you can't) there exists no staking plan that will turn this into a long term profitable system. Quit while you are ahead !
I do use a staking plan. I'm mainly involved in back to lay trades and my stake is adjusted to the price I buy in at. I only work at the front end of the market and we know the average strike rate for those kinds of prices. Research has shown that horses running to odds-on have a strike rate of around 50%. Evens to 15/8, 33%, 2 - 11/4 28% and so on. So to me it makes sense to take these percentages into consideration, and consequently my biggest investments are at the shortest end of the market.
Of course, I'm not looking for winners, but to lay off a trade in-running and horses at the short end of the market generally come into contention at some point in the race and their price drops accordingly, and a profit is realised. But if things go wrong it's as well to be aware of the price increments on Betfair and so have smaller investments on bigger prices to limit losses. In the end a similar profit is also realised on successful trades whatever the price.
The only other control is the use of the stop loss, but that cuts out so many trades that for this type of deal it's better not to use them in my view, and control profits and losses with a sliding scale of staking.
Of course, I'm not looking for winners, but to lay off a trade in-running and horses at the short end of the market generally come into contention at some point in the race and their price drops accordingly, and a profit is realised. But if things go wrong it's as well to be aware of the price increments on Betfair and so have smaller investments on bigger prices to limit losses. In the end a similar profit is also realised on successful trades whatever the price.
The only other control is the use of the stop loss, but that cuts out so many trades that for this type of deal it's better not to use them in my view, and control profits and losses with a sliding scale of staking.
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ShaunWhite
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- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
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Dave Angel
- Posts: 46
- Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2015 4:16 am
"Any staking plan that has the intent to win back money that was lost will eventually lead to ruin"
Back the fav to be placed until a profit is made!
Back the fav to be placed until a profit is made!
Is anything you do to limit the effect of inevitable losing trades a "loss reccovery plan"?
For example, if you place a 50% dobbing back bet, is it "loss recovery" to place a stop, given that the stop, if matched, will almost certainly create a greater potential liability than your initial bet, and now there is a chance that the selection will pick up its skirts and win.
For example, if you place a 50% dobbing back bet, is it "loss recovery" to place a stop, given that the stop, if matched, will almost certainly create a greater potential liability than your initial bet, and now there is a chance that the selection will pick up its skirts and win.