The time from a to b
In differing conditions can be estimated
Horse Predictor
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
My favourite bet is obvious a winner but I love to pick a horse who has shown diabolical form. A horse that I can excuse easily.
By far my favourite. The best horse in the race with a duck egg next to its name is always a value bet ina competitive race.
Forgiving a poor performance is a real gem in picking winners.
By far my favourite. The best horse in the race with a duck egg next to its name is always a value bet ina competitive race.
Forgiving a poor performance is a real gem in picking winners.
Have to admire the trouble you've taken to explain racing, knowing that you'll get a one-sentence dismissive reply.SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:56 pmA horse “generally” will only run as fast as it can under the circumstances.
If you accurately predict every variable, any weather-, going around the track and the pace of a race.
A horse could still than figure a time that isn’t their best or what they are really capable of.
I personally don’t use any sectionals, not because I don’t believe in them simply because I would never sleep.
When i first started to take racing seriously around 10 years ago I wasted years trying to find the fastest horse.
When I looked at my results and saw that the fastest horse I market for the day finished 5th I would ponder for pointless hours trying to improve my methods.
I am certainly one to learn the hard way in life.
My question to you is such...
For years I thought the key to racing was picking winnners and just picking more winners than everybody else was or could. Just improving everything Until thinking eventually it will all happen for me.
It was about 7/8!years ago when I got involved in the racing industry that my mind just clicked and i looked at things differently.
This is not from an integrity reason why I did but purely the fact that a horse i bonded with and who clearly showed a bond to me one day booted the f**** out me for no reason.
Than I learned to ride horses.. going easy around the ring whilst the trainer howled abuse at me... to then being upgraded to riding out.. only riding the horses I trusted or shall I say could be trusted on... with no problems.
Than one day these same trusted animals don’t want to pull up. The will purposely throw you off into a ditch.
Frighten the living shit out of you.
When people say boxers are hard or brave. No ruby Walsh and AP are crazy mother f****s. Fearless! Boxers don’t come close. How they get back on horses is mental.
Horses can be.. not always but can be unbelievably unpredictable.
Let’s take for example a horse who has shown poor speed ratings and let’s pretend this was a true reflection of their ability. Than can (sometimes) and do show better performances out of the blue.
For example. A horse cannot vommit. Their digestive system is build in a way that the only way they can function is threw eating little and often.
That is how they work, the smallest change from a trainer can and does transform their form. Even if they have never shown it.
When considering time ratings, do you for any second consider that something that’s shown from a figure could not at any point be false?
In 2011 I won over £80,000 from one single bet. I was 23 years old and I’m not saying this to brag but to point out that it was all gone pretty darn quickly.
For year and years I wasted countless times on creating systems and speed ratings until I discovered trading.
I truly believe a monkey could win in abookies every day (long term) if they just approached betting differently to the normal.
The whole point of my post is. Try to approach racing from a different angle. Speed ratings imo are the best guide for a horses ability. But they really are a guide.
Questions to ask.
Will this horse stay the trip?
Is this horse better at this trip?
Is the horse drawn well?
Will the horse like the ground conditions?
Is the horse over the top?
Is the horse improving?
Will the horse be suited by the pace?
Is the horse unpredictable?
Regardless of talent. Assuming their isn’t a serious loss match like a 120 rated horse running against a 50 horse just one of those questions alone could get the horse to underperform. Not just underperform but finish lady.
Than consider the jockey.
After all this the horse could just have a f**** it day and race keen for no reason. The horse could be lame.
Make the running against a headwind- always spells finishing last.
There are so many other factors to consider. I used to waste so much time on betting just from speed ratings but no matter how good your ratings are your still going to get in accurate results or ratings.
Money management, price sensitivity and some form knowledge will be far more successful than any speed ratings.
I am not suggesting this isn’t the case with you but just trying to explain that why you shouldn’t rely purely on speed ratings.
If your creating speed ratings to get inspiration, keep going but if your doing it to f over the bookies. Think about what I wrote, listen to bobs and other advice here.
SHR
The number of atoms that exist in the universe when the going's soft at Newmarket can be estimated.....but you know it's a wild guess!
Considering you were trying to estimate how fast a jockey who lost his irons could have ridden 3 furlongs if he hadn't lost his irons...
StellaBot - trying to decipher your incomprehensible posts is much harder than trying to put a figure on a handicap winner at Chelmsford on a wet and blustery Thursday night - if you had bothered to read my post , i did say "averages don't work" - standards are created by comparing a dataset of past times against expected to actual ability , and the use of statistical techniques involving standard deviation and variable percentiles - It is easier to run faster at 5f than it is to run faster at 16f , so that basic fact of equine bio-mechanics has to be factored in , along with normalisation in relation to the factors that effect times - This process of benchmarking has to be done in the first place to "consider the fastest" otherwise you are working with smoke and mirrors. There is also an ongoing calibration process ,simply because new data is added every single racing day. One aspect that nobody has mentioned is the amount of "false" published or official times that get passed through as if they are accurate - the video analysis (which i know Timeform do as well) is a necessary - to give you an example , have a look at a horse called Promote - who won recently at Newcastle in an "official" time of 71.02 - video analysis shows that was out by ~2.00 full seconds which would equate to around 40 odd lbs at that distance using modern estimates (25lbs per second at 5f) - or that at Chelmsford the timer is calibrated wrongly and "undersells" every time by ~0.20 to 0.50 depending on the distance - these kind of errors are common place in the game and not many people know about them.
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The reason the courses were re-measured was highlighted in the first place by Time analysts - go on the Racing forum and search "Wetherby distances suspect" or read Simon Rowlands posts on Timeform back in 2014 - it was time data that brought this problem to light in the first place.StellaBot wrote: ↑Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:39 pmMaybe Bob can explain
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/pres ... om-1-june/
Good to hear Buddy - give me a shout if you are needing any of that "data" updated - been a few months since we last spoke.SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:11 pmYes bud.
Well still a little sore after the Son Of Rest dead heat from Saturday. Hope your well?
Regards to your headwind post.
Yep still sat waiting for going readings between each race and some decent live wind speed data coming from the tracks.
Trying to push something behind the scenes... well questioning it to certain people within racing. Hopefully than I may consider speed ratings full time one day.
Derek , i can tell you that in the example i put up - Timeform got it wrong that day - they had Enable running faster than Kessaar in the last 3f in their sectional archive - don't know why or don't know how but it happens - see attached snapshot of the two races head to head timed from a common point - Kessaar clearly was faster that day and confirmed that promise on Saturday at NewburyDerek27 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:13 pmAgree with bobs71, just subscribe to Timeform - they know what they're doing!
Phil Bull use to say Timefigures tell you how bad a horse isn't.
In other words, a good time proves a horse is good, a bad time doesn't prove one way or the other how good the horse is, because ultimately a horses time depends on how fast the front runners go, not on how good the horse is. Any method that rates horses purely on time will overlook top quality horses that haven't yet put up a good time.
If you're going to guess how fast a horse would run if the jockey didn't lose it's irons, why not just guess what times the non-runners and unseated riders would have gone?
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