Horse Predictor

Discussion regarding the spreadsheet functionality of Bet Angel.
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bobs71
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Yes Scott , been ongoing now for a couple of years with the published times , although the "performance" rating is relatively new - think its a bid to increase transparency , so owners/ trainers can understand their thinking behind the movement of "marks"
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

bobs71 wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:17 am
StellaBot wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:12 pm
tell u what
Tell the average to go somewhere
Was ready to swear there
Consider the fastest
StellaBot - trying to decipher your incomprehensible posts is much harder than trying to put a figure on a handicap winner at Chelmsford on a wet and blustery Thursday night
+1 I don't know why we bother wasting time with this guy. At least our talented little champion made his best effort to explain himself!
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

bobs71 wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:15 am
Derek27 wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:13 pm
Agree with bobs71, just subscribe to Timeform - they know what they're doing!

Phil Bull use to say Timefigures tell you how bad a horse isn't.

Any method that rates horses purely on time will overlook top quality horses that haven't yet put up a good time.
Agree with your second sentence if only using final time data - the sectional data that breaks down the race is needed to provide context and both work hand in hand - especially in European racing where the early pace is completely different to other jurisdictions (slower) - It's one of the reasons why in UK flat racing there is a big bias towards front runners - looked at on a % of runners to winners basis , frontrunners vastly outrun their final odds and is basically where the money is DmGJ4xAX4AA_jhm.jpg That covers a large sample of data on all UK Flat racecourses and uses SP as a benchmark - there is a lot of money in predicting frontrunners , although i will say that most of the profits come from the unexpected types who change runstyle from past history or from jockeys making pace dependant decisions at the start of a race but still a lot can be inferred from that data.
I'm well aware of how sectionals are used, I was just explaining what Phil Bull said - we didn't have sectionals at that time. :)
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Derek27
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Location: UK

bobs71 wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:57 am
Derek , i can tell you that in the example i put up - Timeform got it wrong that day - they had Enable running faster than Kessaar in the last 3f in their sectional archive - don't know why or don't know how but it happens - see attached snapshot of the two races head to head timed from a common point - Kessaar clearly was faster that day and confirmed that promise on Saturday at NewburyKempton Enab v Kess.PNG
I've always had a lot of respect for Timeform's race-readers, products, and their attention to detail, but in fairness, with thousands of races and plus ten thousand horses to assess using error-prone techniques, the errors are bound to be there. Even more so when it comes to rating horses - maiden winners often have to be uprated or downgraded after their next run. The real benefit is having a team putting in the hours for a job that's too much for one man.
StellaBot
Posts: 818
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Anyone got it?
StellaBot
Posts: 818
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Play chess it helps
StellaBot
Posts: 818
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Watch QI on tv
StellaBot
Posts: 818
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Won lots few days ago
Thank you
StellaBot
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Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Obviously working or would have negative feedback
Thank you
:D
StellaBot
Posts: 818
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Ask Dallas ?
It works
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

If you're really determined to prove that it works just post your P/L for the last month or three?
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

stellabot im not sure how to use this spreadsheet can you not do a video showing how you use this to predict please :)
StellaBot
Posts: 818
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Dont Know ELOFAN
Other people know more

pm me on here
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

pmed you stellabot :)
StellaBot
Posts: 818
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Hi
For anyone who downloaded my excel sheet, I will show a working example for today
The horse runs later.
Should win
Thought this may be the best way forward for anyone interested.
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