Horse Predictor
Yes Scott , been ongoing now for a couple of years with the published times , although the "performance" rating is relatively new - think its a bid to increase transparency , so owners/ trainers can understand their thinking behind the movement of "marks"
+1 I don't know why we bother wasting time with this guy. At least our talented little champion made his best effort to explain himself!
I'm well aware of how sectionals are used, I was just explaining what Phil Bull said - we didn't have sectionals at that time.bobs71 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:15 amAgree with your second sentence if only using final time data - the sectional data that breaks down the race is needed to provide context and both work hand in hand - especially in European racing where the early pace is completely different to other jurisdictions (slower) - It's one of the reasons why in UK flat racing there is a big bias towards front runners - looked at on a % of runners to winners basis , frontrunners vastly outrun their final odds and is basically where the money is DmGJ4xAX4AA_jhm.jpg That covers a large sample of data on all UK Flat racecourses and uses SP as a benchmark - there is a lot of money in predicting frontrunners , although i will say that most of the profits come from the unexpected types who change runstyle from past history or from jockeys making pace dependant decisions at the start of a race but still a lot can be inferred from that data.
I've always had a lot of respect for Timeform's race-readers, products, and their attention to detail, but in fairness, with thousands of races and plus ten thousand horses to assess using error-prone techniques, the errors are bound to be there. Even more so when it comes to rating horses - maiden winners often have to be uprated or downgraded after their next run. The real benefit is having a team putting in the hours for a job that's too much for one man.bobs71 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:57 amDerek , i can tell you that in the example i put up - Timeform got it wrong that day - they had Enable running faster than Kessaar in the last 3f in their sectional archive - don't know why or don't know how but it happens - see attached snapshot of the two races head to head timed from a common point - Kessaar clearly was faster that day and confirmed that promise on Saturday at NewburyKempton Enab v Kess.PNG