Listen buddy there only offering some advice. Nothing sour intended.
Read what Bobs71 wrote and re think it.
Horse Predictor
Maybe Bob can explain
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/pres ... om-1-june/
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/pres ... om-1-june/
-
SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
A horse “generally” will only run as fast as it can under the circumstances.
If you accurately predict every variable, any weather-, going around the track and the pace of a race.
A horse could still than figure a time that isn’t their best or what they are really capable of.
I personally don’t use any sectionals, not because I don’t believe in them simply because I would never sleep.
When i first started to take racing seriously around 10 years ago I wasted years trying to find the fastest horse.
When I looked at my results and saw that the fastest horse I market for the day finished 5th I would ponder for pointless hours trying to improve my methods.
I am certainly one to learn the hard way in life.
My question to you is such...
For years I thought the key to racing was picking winnners and just picking more winners than everybody else was or could. Just improving everything Until thinking eventually it will all happen for me.
It was about 7/8!years ago when I got involved in the racing industry that my mind just clicked and i looked at things differently.
This is not from an integrity reason why I did but purely the fact that a horse i bonded with and who clearly showed a bond to me one day booted the f**** out me for no reason.
Than I learned to ride horses.. going easy around the ring whilst the trainer howled abuse at me... to then being upgraded to riding out.. only riding the horses I trusted or shall I say could be trusted on... with no problems.
Than one day these same trusted animals don’t want to pull up. The will purposely throw you off into a ditch.
Frighten the living shit out of you.
When people say boxers are hard or brave. No ruby Walsh and AP are crazy mother f****s. Fearless! Boxers don’t come close. How they get back on horses is mental.
Horses can be.. not always but can be unbelievably unpredictable.
Let’s take for example a horse who has shown poor speed ratings and let’s pretend this was a true reflection of their ability. Than can (sometimes) and do show better performances out of the blue.
For example. A horse cannot vommit. Their digestive system is build in a way that the only way they can function is threw eating little and often.
That is how they work, the smallest change from a trainer can and does transform their form. Even if they have never shown it.
When considering time ratings, do you for any second consider that something that’s shown from a figure could not at any point be false?
In 2011 I won over £80,000 from one single bet. I was 23 years old and I’m not saying this to brag but to point out that it was all gone pretty darn quickly.
For year and years I wasted countless times on creating systems and speed ratings until I discovered trading.
I truly believe a monkey could win in abookies every day (long term) if they just approached betting differently to the normal.
The whole point of my post is. Try to approach racing from a different angle. Speed ratings imo are the best guide for a horses ability. But they really are a guide.
Questions to ask.
Will this horse stay the trip?
Is this horse better at this trip?
Is the horse drawn well?
Will the horse like the ground conditions?
Is the horse over the top?
Is the horse improving?
Will the horse be suited by the pace?
Is the horse unpredictable?
Regardless of talent. Assuming their isn’t a serious loss match like a 120 rated horse running against a 50 horse just one of those questions alone could get the horse to underperform. Not just underperform but finish lady.
Than consider the jockey.
After all this the horse could just have a f**** it day and race keen for no reason. The horse could be lame.
Make the running against a headwind- always spells finishing last.
There are so many other factors to consider. I used to waste so much time on betting just from speed ratings but no matter how good your ratings are your still going to get in accurate results or ratings.
Money management, price sensitivity and some form knowledge will be far more successful than any speed ratings.
I am not suggesting this isn’t the case with you but just trying to explain that why you shouldn’t rely purely on speed ratings.
If your creating speed ratings to get inspiration, keep going but if your doing it to f over the bookies. Think about what I wrote, listen to bobs and other advice here.
SHR
Last edited by SeaHorseRacing on Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
-
SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
-
SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
My favourite bet is obvious a winner but I love to pick a horse who has shown diabolical form. A horse that I can excuse easily.
By far my favourite. The best horse in the race with a duck egg next to its name is always a value bet ina competitive race.
Forgiving a poor performance is a real gem in picking winners.
By far my favourite. The best horse in the race with a duck egg next to its name is always a value bet ina competitive race.
Forgiving a poor performance is a real gem in picking winners.