your not getting much backing elcapitain have you wondered why yet, i spent a few years trying to work out how to make money using your system 99% of the time on paper then trying it with small bets, it was a total waste of my time.
you have to find an edge a skill in whether its betting or trading thats the only way to make money.
martingale ended up with nothing, he made money for a while then ended up broke.
Very interested in achieving the following..
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elcapitain
- Posts: 45
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm
Only 3 Meetings tomorrow. Im guessing its its another winning day for the Cap'n! 
Nope - the longest winning streak was 6 on the simulation I ran to test your theory.elcapitain wrote:Jeff. Try favourites at bsp of 3 only and the longest winning streak is 4.
See graph below.In case that was an anomaly, I did the same on another simulation, and this was what happened at lay 1838:
Horse Lost £2 £0.95
Horse Won £2 -£2.00
Horse Won £4 -£4.21
Horse Won £13 -£13.07
Horse Won £41 -£40.60
Horse Won £126 -£126.08
Horse Won £391 -£391.50
Before then, you were doing great, having built up a £100 bank to over £800.
[/quote]elcapitain wrote:Does your spreadsheet handle that?
That's like asking if someone's Ferrari can do 80!
Jeff
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elcapitain
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But jeff. Stake sizes are much teduced. Its free money.
Rgds
Cap'n
Rgds
Cap'n
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elcapitain
- Posts: 45
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm
Marko old chap. Its basic maths.
50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200.
Seems manageable to me.am i missing missing something?
Those with lower risk tolerance use lower steaks? 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640...
Quite manageable and no stress.
50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200.
Seems manageable to me.am i missing missing something?
Those with lower risk tolerance use lower steaks? 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640...
Quite manageable and no stress.
It seems this isn't a wind up after all...elcapitain wrote:am i missing missing something?
Let's say I'm betting on the toss of a coin. Long-term, if I bet at evens, I can more or less expect to break even (disregarding commission for the sake of simplicity). If I bet over evens, I'll make money, and if I bet below evens I'll lose money long term.
You place your lays without regard to whether the Betfair price represents the true odds of something happening (and long-term, the market odds are extremely accurate). Therefore, you can expect to lose money (due to Betfair commission), whether you use level stakes or some weird martingale system.
Einstein famously said that the only way to win money at roulette was to steal money from the table. If martingale offered some kind of edge, don't you think he'd have realized it? And if martingale doesn't offer an edge in roulette, what makes you think it offers one in horse racing?
Jeff
El Capitain -
Before you continue with this strategy, I would urge you to read everything that has been written in this forum about martingale and think about it seriously.
Also, run simulations on my spreadsheet, playing with the settings. You'll find that, more often than not, you'll end up losing your shirt. It will show you what will happen sooner or later in real life if you continue.
The forum has a number of Betfair pros and highly intelligent horse racing enthusiasts, yet not one has stepped forward to defend martingale. Doesn't that tell you something?
All the best.
Jeff
Before you continue with this strategy, I would urge you to read everything that has been written in this forum about martingale and think about it seriously.
Also, run simulations on my spreadsheet, playing with the settings. You'll find that, more often than not, you'll end up losing your shirt. It will show you what will happen sooner or later in real life if you continue.
The forum has a number of Betfair pros and highly intelligent horse racing enthusiasts, yet not one has stepped forward to defend martingale. Doesn't that tell you something?
All the best.
Jeff
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elcapitain
- Posts: 45
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm
jeff, you could be on to something.
after this week, i will knock it on the head.
after this week, i will knock it on the head.
