Re : Does Scalping work anymore

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Crazyskier
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PeterLe wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:56 pm
Id probably agree with that (I dont tend to scalp either these days).
I just found the file that I used in July last year; Id be happy to run it again tomorrow using small stakes (£5) and post the results if anyone is interested?
Regards
Peter
Yes please ;)
PeterLe
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Sure no problem; I’ll run it on 5 stakes with a hard stop if it loses £20
PeterLe
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Well here's the results from today

Running entirley on auto (excel/Guardian)
Traded 12 markets

Tot amount of bets = £1877
P&L -7.96

The big losses were due to the horse steaming towards the end coupled with lower SP's than anticipated
Im sure there are some people out there who can make this pay, but I dont like the risk/reward, so back to my normal BOT for the Kempton meeting; Im out!

Regards
Peter
PS One point worth mentioning; I wouldnt normally scalp anything with odds of less than 3 but I did today. If you remove those trades it comes in a bit better.
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Euler
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There were loads of short-priced steamers around today.
Iron
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That's interesting Peter, thanks for running the test.

When I returned similar losses the other day, I wondered if the fault was with my method, as I would have expected far lower losses (or maybe even a small profit).

It would appear, however, that the market has changed since your and Euler's previous tests, and that perhaps you need to do more these days to get an edge than merely offer to either side of the book.

Jeff
spreadbetting
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It's always been hard to make decent profits scalping manually and that's when you're there to assess all angles of the market/close out at the first signs of trouble etc. So simply filling either side of the spread at seemingly random times is always going to leave you at risk of runners going in one direction, if you continually refill your orders that almost becomes a certainty.

Unless you code your bot to act similar to how you'd manually trade all you're really doing by offering each side of the spread is trying to take advantage of the 'noise' within a market, and doing it very badly by limiting yourself to 1-2 ticks.
Iron
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spreadbetting wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:44 pm
All you're really doing by offering each side of the spread is trying to take advantage of the 'noise' within a market, and doing it very badly by limiting yourself to 1-2 ticks.
+1

I was tempted to put this in the 'nice trading quotes' thread! :)

Jeff
PeterLe
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Aw well, always worth running a test.
Jeff It it helps, here is the bet history (betids removed).

Regards
Peter
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Euler
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Ferru123 wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:22 pm
It would appear, however, that the market has changed since your and Euler's previous tests, and that perhaps you need to do more these days to get an edge than merely offer to either side of the book.
Only in the very early days could you just offer money to the market randomly and hope to make the spread. That was a long time ago.

The market is more volatile than before, I did a blog post on it some time ago. But just splattering the market with orders isn't a strategy I would recommend.
PeterLe
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Sorry I should have said at the outset; the bets wasn’t just fired in at random, an element of logic was applied (although not very successful! 😀)
Regards
Peter
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Euler
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Y, that was more aimed at Jeff as that looks like his strategy?
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Crazyskier
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Does scalping work? I can only say that mine has been working for over a year now, producing a few pounds profit every single day for free - fully automated.

It uses a very tight set of selection criteria and rules / triggers. I use only a £2 liability per trade and achieve around 90% strike rate on my trades across a whole day's racing. It works on all races to a given time before event start and took me around 18 months to refine fully with a lot of help from Dallas, Jimbit, Peterle and others to refine fully (I still tweak the odds selection and triggers ocassionally).

I have tried scaling up but my 'edge' seems to disappear or at least reduce somewhat when I ask for more than pennies per trade; I kind of rely on being 'under the radar' and trading early on. As you will see with today's chart I have won on 25/26 events and this is broadly typical. I won't get rich but a few beers at the weekend courtesy of my 'bot' is always nice when I withdraw £50 or so.
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Bluesky
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Excellent results CS, although £50 per week is not going to change your life its a nice little sum each week to spend on a few extras. It's a shame that scaling up doesn't seem to work on the system, but that knowledge in itself might give you a better understanding of the horse racing markets and might lead you to something that could scale up in future.
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