The biggest Edge??

[davangel]

Hi guys, i trade horses pre race... can anyone help me here, what is your biggest edge....Ive watch thousands of markets and asked a lot of pro traders through facebook chats and emails what their big edge is, non will tell me they just say, read books watch videos get as much info as possible......over the past year ive done all that, ive paid over £100 for specialist videos bought 3 top trading books, but none say what the most important "edge" is................today i was scalping as usual, some days i lose some i win but over a week im always down............The reason is....the way all the top traders tell you to scalp is...go to resistance points, say 6.0 and take 1 tick at a time (6.2/6.4 if the price starts going against you scratch....................and if it runs through you get out for as little a loss as possible unless you think it will come back........Today for instance i traded 13 races, 7 i made collectively 11 ticks profit but 6 of them ran through me and i got out for a total of 17 ticks loss..........................................The question i ask is, how is it possible to be in profit with scalping if you only ever take 1 tick...................................Ive asked some of the traders on you tube to put a video up of "how not to scalp" but none of them will, all i ever get is "watch the videos" ...........thanks for any help and please dont say "Watch the videos" haha

[SeaHorseRacing]

Have you read trading in the zone by Mark Douglas?

There is IMO lot of good advice on the market and again alot of shite.

I always recomend it and will again, Peter Webbs master class is certainly worth going!


Again you probably will get little response to your questions. By the sounds of it, your feeling the need to find out more about the markets is the blame for little or no success? If youve been trading a fair while (a year),I would say that is most likely not the problem.

Everyone is different but for me, looking into yourself will give you the edge you are looking for. As for scalping there is possibly 1,000s of reasons.

So many pople are so private about their edges, With reason. Why would you give away an edge that would bring an end to the edge, if you know what I am saying. But in my opinion with the right coaching/learning, hardwork and determination you will succeed.

I am by no means an expert but I like to help if I can.

With your scapling; Asses the volatilly of the market. For me, if i think the race is crazy but scalping is best suited, I will be very defensive. If its a solid race you can afford to be alittle less focusd and allow that little move to bounce all the way back.

Work on your prepartation and exits.
Ive read alot on this forum over the last year and its seems people assume scalping is a one fit all. Once you know how to you have isntant riches? For me however. It is impossoble to scalp every race the same. I probably scalped 10/15 different variations today alone!

I guess there certainly is edges for people to hide, also, I paid £400 for Peters masterclass and I have spent alot of money and more importantly time on trading. So why would I or anyone else just give it away?

This world doesnt work like that. I hope my advice can help you.

Good luck with your adventure

[davangel]

Thanks for replying mate.....the main question i have asked the top traders is...Do you guys have a way of telling which way the price will go, as in 2 different ladders one which is maybe 2 or 3 seconds ahead of the other, i never get a concrete answer!!....im convinced these guys have something thats away ahead of traders like me...........my discipline imo is brilliant, in 1 year i have never let 1 trade go inplay i always take the loss just before the off..Yeh ive read trading in the zone...sports betting to win and sports trading on betfair...all were good reads and ive learned a lot from them....................ive heard these masterclasses are good and i havent heard anyone say a bad word about them so even tually if i dont crack this myself i`ll go to one haha........personally i think im probably stuck in a rut of trading the same way which is a losing way in the long term and need to re think my strategy............i understand people wont give away there ultimate edge so i`ll just have to find it myself...cheers again

[jimibt]

i think seahorse said it all. one thing I would add tho; apart from discipline (or lack of), the #1 malady in pre-race trading is giving into panic or emotion. sure, no one wants to lose, but a good framed decision can only be taken with cool detached reasoning (easier said than done I hear you say). BUT, if you setup a target exit, within a timeframe and stick to the plan (+ve or -ve), you will on average probably do better than you are now. also, you probably need to look at the makeup of each event and decide what approach to take but be willing to change plan if it morphs ahead of your exit.

all i can say is that this isn't the easiest way to make a living (or spare cash), but at the end of the day, there are lots of permutations but only a handful of scenarios that you begin to recognise. ME; i tend twds front loading the market when i can see the odds are acting like a wee piston, otherwise, sit back and be more selective.

anyway, gorra get my apron back on and serve the masses (cooking is a good way to reflect on prep, timing and presentation - always be aware of alternate ways to see how you do things

ok, where the fck is that frying pan!!

[SeaHorseRacing]

Trading to me in this last year has made me; extremely aggresive at times, it has made me cry, it has fulfilled euphora like feelings. I understand and feel your frustration. For me these feelings at times are probably why I am so compulsive and determined to get there. I didnt think I was competitve but trading has shown me I am. Badly!

It does sound like your going back and forth back and forth. Like a kinda Yoyo.

Elbert Einstein said "Imagination is more important than knowledge"

Maybe explre the markets yourself rather then see what everyone else is doing, Atleast that way when you get an edge its most likely to stay as your always exploring?
I still stand by it, use your personlity to find out what works for you. Following advice is for me is no longer any good. There is nothing else I dont think I could learn about the pre markets.
I have so many impulsive bad habbits that it doesnt work following others.

I will say, for me: Going in play is no issue. Taking a loss is no issue.

But I find myself at times in a stupid mess in a market quicker than most traders have even decided what stake to use. I have other problems. I have a betting back grond, taking a loss is not a problem for me. You obviouly have problems your un aware of.
What i found with me is being very rigid is not good either.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Good advice from jimit too.

One extra note:

Today: if i follwed the rigid book, I should have made a loss on a trade for a bout £2/3 but I knew it was overbet for a handicap. It kept going, stalled then bam, Took me from a £4 loss into a very nice profit. I find atleast once a day a market will over run or be manipulated for when the book says "to take aloss."

[SeaHorseRacing]

This is what is written on my diary today next to the two losses.

I am still making progress though. I have no idea how long it will take to remoe these bad habbits. lol

-Felt the need to trade! You dont have to trade.

-Trading to early- No coverage!

[jimibt]

if i'm totally honest, the #1 way to rid the emotion in the market is to firstly address your known demons (we all have them, but like yin/yang, we can subjectively push and pull the character that works best for the scenario). Also, (and i think this is ultra important for me in particular), automate the parts that you fail on, even if that's simply a single rule that greens/reds out at 00:05 seconds ahead of the official event start. You can then swiftly move on (detached), from whatever the last event was (+ve or -ve).

if there was a silver bullet for all of this, we would still all screw it up as we'd tinker with the edges of that KNOWN magic tryst. Thus, we have to discover, for ourselves, the extremes to both accept, reject and operate within those bounds. Poncey sounding; sure; BUT, this is how it is, i can't lecture or advise on a scenario that has so many emotional components as to make every nuance a *next* question. we have to all responsibly reflect and recognise (in equal measure) the strengths and weaknesses of our strategies. that said, an obscure nod or agreement to something that you have in your approach can often leapfrog eons of questioning.

anyway, where's that frying pan!!

[davangel]

Jimibt and Seahorse thanks very much for your help every one of your points are exactly what i do...i think i have a reasonable strategy but i let my emotions get the better of me at times..........i start my trading by thinking im gonna have a brilliant day then when it starts going wrong i just trade any race to try and get back my losses and also do things ive told myself i wouldnt ...ive videod myself trading annd i can see where ive went wrong at times or what ive done right but for some reason end up making mistakes that i know i shouldnt have..............pre race trading is like nothing else imo, in the space of 10 seconds you can be happy with yourself pissed off then happy again, so your mind is all over the place and at times think the world is against you, i think thats the bit i have to control if im gonna be consistantly successful......Anyway cheers guys and Jimibt if you could send me that frying pan i`ll hit myself over the head with it

Ps great days trading Seahorse btw

[Dallas]

I dont do much scalping myself but when i do my general guide is.

*Dont go race to race trying to scalp everyone the sameway instead be selective and look for the race types and times that best suit this method.
*Avoid all Maidens, Novices 2yo races etc
*Avoid races with short priced fav's
*Look for a competitive h'cap or the better quality races which have the front few in the betting priced similarly (ie 4.0 - 7.0)
*Target runners trading in a tight range and ignore anything thats been trending in a direction (unless directional scalping) or has a betfair chart that looks like a heart rate monitor - or you may end up needing one!.
*Wait till the market is turning over at a decent rate somewhere around a £200 per second average increase, the quicker you can be in and out or in and scratch the better.
*Pay close attension to the previous race going in-play and especially to when it finishes - at these times there will be a influx of money as people start to take poisitions and this can change everything - even runners that have been rock solid all day could move several ticks at this time and never come back so best just holding back around these periods till things settle again.
* Use the Risk Meter on the Bet Angel over view screen this will give a clear indication to the overall activity - the lower the better when scalping.

and when your not doing that keep reading this forum, the BA blog and watch more video's.

[davangel]

Cheers again Dallas and good advice...i think my main problem is definately trading too much...if im winning im more selective and just do handicaps or bigger profile races...if im losing i do maidens irish racing and other volatile markets as well....also if ive lost i`ll start trading as early as i can like say 9 or 10 mins from the start........i take it with not doing much scalping you do swing trading, ive tried that but more often than not i enter at the wrong time and the price goes through me ......Is it maidens nurserys and more volatile markets you trade then?

[Dallas]

Yes im 98% swing trading pre-race so mostly looking for the more volitile markets so those type suit me, though not the irish so much - there is volitility and then just plain madness so i leave most of theirs alone.

On the subject of reading material i would fully recomend these posts by 'JG'
viewtopic.php?f=17&t=8320

[SeaHorseRacing]

Dallas has just offered advice where some people would charge £100's to give this advice. Fair play to him. Very wise words

[jimibt]

Dallas has just offered advice where some people would charge £100's to give this advice. Fair play to him. Very wise words

agreed - nice little checklist... and totally appreciated by all

[davangel]

Today i traded 6 races all handicaps...i went in with a calmer frame of mind and at what i thought was the right time for scalping.........I was only using £3 stakes as ive decided to lower them until i get the vital edge...........the strategy i use is, as soon as i make 3 ticks im out.......in all of the 6 races as soon as i put my back and lay stakes in (at roughly the same place in the queue) it always took one first then went to the next price or even 2 prices away, so then i scratched or took a one or 2 tick loss as every video from a top trader tells you to do that.....I had 4 losing trades....so how is it possible to make profits from this if you dont have that edge that tells you which way the price is going as 1 price will always get taken first then move against you unless it is the gold cup or some other big race........................................I even tried going in with the opposite mindset.....i said to myself right lets lose 3 ticks, so i looked at the markets and which horses were moving and went against the knowledge i have and lo and behold i still lost so i gave myself a pat on the back because id got what i acheived, so i didnt feel bad about it.........When you guys are looking at a market do you look at other things(apart from live video and commentary) like what are the bookies doing, has any of the horses been tipped or other things..........or can you guys look at the top 3 or 4 in the market and be 95% of the time confident in which way the markets will move