General discussion : Elon Musk's Open AI beat world best dota 2 players

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Wainwright
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Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:22 pm

Stratagem, the startup mentioned in a recent thread, are apparently doing precisely that;
Stratagem’s AI makes its calculations watching a standard, broadcast feed of the match. (Pro: it’s readily accessible. Con: it has to learn not to analyze the replays.) It tracks the ball and the players, identifying which team they’re on based on the color of their kits. The lines of the pitch are also highlighted, and all this data is transformed into a 2D map of the whole game. From this viewpoint, the software studies matches like an armchair general: it identifies what it thinks are goal-scoring chances, or the moments where the configuration of players looks right for someone to take a shot and score.
https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/6/15923 ... -stratagem

I don't see it as much of a threat to traditional trading though as they are training it by showing it historical games - once it gets to LVGs reign at Man Utd it will probably pack up through sheer boredom.

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Euler
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Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:24 pm

Never confuse marketing with actual application in the market.

Stratagem feels like Centaur 2 to me.

If you have a brand new technology that nobody has, you just unleash it to the market and clean up.

Wainwright
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Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:34 pm

I imagine it to be something like this;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACmydtFDTGs

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workpeter
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Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:12 pm

It would be very challenging because unlike games there is less consistency. If I were to attempt using the same approach I would first need the ability to capture and replay a stream so the AI can replay the same race over and over using random strategies. This, of course, would need to be done across hundreds of races and indefinitely in order to keep updated with ever changing markets.

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Euler
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Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:20 pm

I looked at training neural nets back in 2007, but it only seems to be trendy now. I'm not sure what has changed, computing power? The methodologies don't seem radically different?

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Dublin_Flyer
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Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:33 am

I think football-wise you'd need an incredibly huge amount of games to begin with, include international friendly games, friendly pre-season games that might end 15-0 to one side, add a large amount of these in so there's a full view of teams, games etc.
Include actual league games like Serie B in the last few games of the season, where form/players/expectations don't stand up to the lure of the €€ (possible bungs).
If you want the AI to have a prediction, you need it to have as many of the situations and outcomes as possible......and even then there might be a Grobbelaar in goal! :roll:

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marksmeets302
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Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:05 pm

Euler wrote:
Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:20 pm
I looked at training neural nets back in 2007, but it only seems to be trendy now. I'm not sure what has changed, computing power? The methodologies don't seem radically different?
Around that time a couple of improvements came into popularity that enabled training neural networks with a large number of layers. Also, gpus were used to do all the matrix calculations in parallel. The biggest change is probably the availability of much more data. I believe somebody said we now produce more data in a year than we did from the inception of mankind up to ten years ago.

Neural nets are presented as a magic potion but my own experience is that it is difficult to tailor them to specific needs. The standard problems like character recognition, finding the boundaries in a picture filled with x's and o's, etc that works fine. Doing anything that is useful for Mark seems a lot harder. The other family of algorithms that is used for learning to play games is actually the coolest thing I've learned since leaving university. Once I got how a computer can learn to play a game without even stating the rules or objectives it completely blew me away. Unfortunately, for any problem of decent size you need the combination of that algorithm with neural nets so I'm still a bit stuck.

DoctorEvil
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Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:23 pm

Euler wrote:
Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:20 pm
I looked at training neural nets back in 2007, but it only seems to be trendy now. I'm not sure what has changed, computing power? The methodologies don't seem radically different?
I'm far from an expert, but I think computing power wouldn't have been a problem, at least not in 2007. there was some guy who tried to apply neural networks to make computer recognize objects on images (which is a pretty hard thing to do) and it went great and created lots of hype for NN.

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frogthegambler
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:20 pm

Neural Nets definitely can be used for advantage on Betfair.

I first started using them for to build value models for backing strategies pre-Betfair in 1998.

Since around 2011 I have used neural nets feeding into reinforcement learning algorithms to learn to trade with no human input. So far they work out in smaller markets like USA racing, Aust racing and greyhounds but no luck yet in UK horse racing win markets. After 7 years researching the robot keeps saying no bet!

Watching the robot learn to trade has helped with manual trading as well. It approaches things differently to what I would have expected.

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marksmeets302
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Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:43 pm

frogthegambler wrote:
Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:20 pm
Neural Nets definitely can be used for advantage on Betfair.

I first started using them for to build value models for backing strategies pre-Betfair in 1998.

Since around 2011 I have used neural nets feeding into reinforcement learning algorithms to learn to trade with no human input. So far they work out in smaller markets like USA racing, Aust racing and greyhounds but no luck yet in UK horse racing win markets. After 7 years researching the robot keeps saying no bet!

Watching the robot learn to trade has helped with manual trading as well. It approaches things differently to what I would have expected.
That's really cool! I've been dreaming about this for years, never got it to work. Would be great if one day you get an email from the system "I think I've got something for UK horse races" :-)
Are you using it in the way deepmind did the atari games?

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