Sorry, I misread this thread. I'll read the Pinnacle article you posted when I've got time.Kafkaesque wrote: ↑Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:17 pmWhat you're talking about is multiple bets within the same market, though. Or???Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:10 pmWikipedia explains how to use KC for multiple bets (by that I don't mean accumulators), but it's quite complex !
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
Different from this spot where it's multiple bets in independent markets.
FWIW, a more explanatory approach, even if still sligthly complex for the problem, if it helps anyone:
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... CB3KNYN9CJ
Kelly Criterion
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ShaunWhite
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- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I just stake what feels right for the market, depending on my confidence in it.
I'm not sure a formula would give me a better staking plan.
I'm not sure a formula would give me a better staking plan.
The Kelly criterium is mathematically accurate if you know for certain the true probability of a bet winning, but nobody can have real confidence in their estimate, especially for horse racing, so it's best used as a guide, taking a cautious view.