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Derek27
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DRED1 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:12 pm
You're spot on Ruthless Simon
Theyre both as bad as each other.
DR
I've had quite a few discussions with Ruthlessimon but I never realised that the name consists of two words - must have been fooled by the connecting S. :)
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Derek27
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Ferru123 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:33 pm
ruthlessimon wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:00 pm
Perhaps mislead is a bit strong, but mainstream education is inherently flawed because trading is 0 sum. That's not a very good marketing line.
I see where you're coming from.

If I were one of the top traders, I wouldn't sell info that could damage my edge (by sharing it) for less than six figures.

I would gladly give generic advice, but that isn't what people pay good money for...

Jeff
If I knew which numbers would pop up on the lottery I certainly wouldn't share that with anyone. On the other hand, if I was a world champion chess player, writing books and giving away all my thoughts on openings, tactics and strategies wouldn't jeopardise my position for obvious reasons. Giving trading advise is more akin to the latter. Most people who take your advice won't be trading the same race, the same horse, the same time, or the same price, unless it's a system with a very specific application.
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gutuami
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:31 pm
.. Most people who take your advice won't be trading the same race, the same horse, the same time, or the same price, unless it's a system with a very specific application.
that is very true. but at the same time the foundations will be right. you would head in the right direction. And that is very important.
Iron
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:56 pm
Education does work in a small trusted group / 1to1. A top trader as part of this group isn't looking for financial repayment - but the psychological satisfaction - that they have just changed a couple of peoples lives.

Money can't buy that & arguably it's worth more than 6 figures.
Sure, but we aren't talking about a pro taking someone under his wing - something I've been lucky to be the recipient of.

We are talking about a course that anyone who stumps up the course fee can attend.

Jeff
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Derek27
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gutuami wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:45 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:31 pm
.. Most people who take your advice won't be trading the same race, the same horse, the same time, or the same price, unless it's a system with a very specific application.
that is very true. but at the same time the foundations will be right. you would head in the right direction. And that is very important.
There are so many successful traders using the exchange that a few more will make no difference. Besides, there are always bookies and punters chucking money onto the exchange, together with traders who don't know what they're doing. Then there might be people who buy your book but just don't have the skill or capability to follow the advice through.

Successful traders make money not just by winning, but by cutting out the mistakes, reducing losses and avoiding disasters. Giving away everything you know about trading could result in a new trader not blowing his life savings on the game, without teaching him to make a living or even a profit.
Iron
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:31 pm
On the other hand, if I was a world champion chess player, writing books and giving away all my thoughts on openings, tactics and strategies wouldn't jeopardise my position for obvious reasons.
Sure - providing you only shared knowledge and ideas that were in widespread circulation anyway. You wouldn't share a new line of the Sicilian that you were preparing for your next opponent.

Similarly, if I were a top trader hosting a course, there is no way I would sell 'the secret sauce' or even information that could lead someone to do near as dammit what I do. I would talk about psychology, strategies, etc in general terms, but I'm not going to give away information that could lead to someone taking money out of my pocket.

That may be why Adam Heathcote never produced any videos of him trading (except for the one where he was messing about with his mates, and all you could see was some of his screen setup! :lol: ).

Jeff
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Derek27
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There is no 'secret sauce' when it comes to trading - it's mainly skill and judgement that can't easily be passed on. All you can really do when passing on your knowledge is improve other peoples trading and point newbies in the right direction.
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ruthlessimon
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Ferru123 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:51 pm
We are talking about a course that anyone who stumps up the course fee can attend.
How about if we add Trader C to the mix (of the Trader A, Trader B scenario).

Trader C has a background in data handling/sciences & knows how to test/model a trade hypothesis. For example, Trader C can offer a way to: "unequivocally prove chart patterns are no better than random." Could Trader C provide a course that could benefit the mainstream? Or does disclosing exactly how he builds/tests trade ideas damage him?
Iron
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I disagree.

All a successful trader is doing is executing a plan. Some will know what their rules are on a conscious level - with others, it will be an algorithm that they aren't consciously aware of, which they might call intuition or a feel for the markets. But either way, it's about following a plan, not on relying on a mysterious sixth sense that's been honed through thousands of hours of practice. Otherwise, bots would be rubbish at trading.

If you knew Peter's algorithm, you could replicate his success.
Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:24 pm
There is no 'secret sauce' when it comes to trading - it's mainly skill and judgement that can't easily be passed on.
Iron
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:31 pm
Ferru123 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:51 pm
We are talking about a course that anyone who stumps up the course fee can attend.
How about if we add Trader C to the mix (of the Trader A, Trader B scenario).

Trader C has a background in data handling/sciences & knows how to test/model a trade hypothesis. For example, Trader C can offer a way to: "unequivocally prove chart patterns are no better than random." Could Trader C provide a course that could benefit the mainstream? Or does disclosing exactly how he builds/tests trade ideas damage him?
It may damage him (if he has an edge himself).

If he believes in the efficient markets hypothesis, I'm not sure how he would expect his knowledge to make me or him any money.

Jeff
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Derek27
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Ferru123 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:36 pm
I disagree.

All a successful trader is doing is executing a plan. Some will know what their rules are on a conscious level - with others, it will be an algorithm that they aren't consciously aware of, which they might call intuition or a feel for the markets. But either way, it's about following a plan, not on relying on a mysterious sixth sense that's been honed through thousands of hours of practice. Otherwise, bots would be rubbish at trading.

If you knew Peter's algorithm, you could replicate his success.
Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:24 pm
There is no 'secret sauce' when it comes to trading - it's mainly skill and judgement that can't easily be passed on.
An algorithm by definition is a process or set of rules to be followed in calculations or other problem-solving operations, especially by a computer. The human brain doesn't do algorithms, that's what makes our brains more powerful then microprocessors - we are able to ignore rules, assess every situation and use our intelligence to make a better decision.

The simply plan that most traders execute is to open trades that you think have a better or significantly better chance of moving in your favour than not, plain and simple. You can replicate somebody's bot but you can't replicate his brain functions.
Last edited by Derek27 on Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Bluesky
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DRED1 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:12 pm
You're spot on Ruthless Simon
Theyre both as bad as each other.
DR
+1
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Let's put it this way. If Peter were to post an unedited video of a day of his trades, it wouldn't be too long before people copied him and the edges disappeared.

We can quibble about what an algorithm is, but it is indisputable that humans can and do follow plans. And if you can model a successful person's modus operandi, in time you can replicate their success.

See http://nlp-mentor.com/nlp-modeling/

Jeff
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Derek27
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A world champion chess player may be following a plan. Every move he makes in every game is documented and you have access to it, you know everything he's done. I've even read books by Gary Kasparov explaining in detail his thinking behind each move, it may have improved my game (or at least my understanding of the Sicilian Defence), but I don't have any chess trophies.

The same applies to trading, plastering, brick laying, painting, etc. You can learn from watching somebody, but you won't replicate what they do if any skill is involved.
Iron
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:21 pm
The same applies to trading, plastering, brick laying, painting, etc. You can learn from watching somebody, but you won't replicate what they do if any skill is involved.
Yet I bet you won't be posting an unedited video of a day in the trading life of Derek anytime soon. :)

If you're a painter and you teach someone how to paint a house, it's not going to do you any harm, unless you and the person you're teaching both live in a small town and are competing for business.

But trading Betfair is like fishing in a small lake. If you're bringing in a much bigger haul than the other fishermen, you're not going to teach them the secrets of your success as:

- It would be self-defeating. If just a couple of them become as good as you, it could seriously reduce your haul.

- The lake may soon be devoid of fish if they apply your techniques well (especially if they teach their mates their new knowledge).

Jeff
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