PW.. Why does a strategy fail the moment you use it?

[marko236]

I was looking at Peters blog and seen one of his blogs called " Why does a stategy fail the moment you use it" the reason for this post is that i'd like to know on average what strike rate and roi Peter has for that strategy, maybe we can start having a guess on the answer and hopefully PW can give us the answer? It would be helpfull maybe for traders that expect to much out of the markets and give them an idea of how much money you have to put through the markets to make a certain profit, anyway i'l put what i think the strike rate is and roi and see what others think the answer is. I'l go for 75% strike rate and an roi of 1%.

[marko236]

I forgot to add how much money on average do you think peter put through each market? i'l go for £1500.

[Dallas]

You might want to add a link to the blog/video your referring to

[ShaunWhite]

Strike rate is vanity, roi is sanity.

[MemphisFlash]

I forgot to add how much money on average do you think peter put through each market? i'l go for £1500.

i would say probably about £2500 to £3000 judging by his results.
My reasoning for this is thus.
If he greens out for around 300 quid, that will be about 1/10 of the total trading through that market!!!!

[marko236]

I forgot to add how much money on average do you think peter put through each market? i'l go for £1500.

i would say probably about £2500 to £3000 judging by his results.
My reasoning for this is thus.
If he greens out for around 300 quid, that will be about 1/10 of the total trading through that market!!!!

Yeah you could be right memphis, it's the big down turn from market around 700 to 850 that lost 40k that made me think the long term profit maybe lower than the graph seems to be predicting.

[marko236]

Strike rate is vanity, roi is sanity.

I have to disagee with that shaun every stratergy will have to have a certain strike rate to be profitable whether it's 30% or 70%, for the last 2 months i'v been testing out a new horse racing strategy which i predicted at the start would need a 60% strike rate to have a good chance of making an roi of about 1%, so far it has about 53% strike rate and it appears that it will be slightly above break even in the longer run, if i could get the strike rate above 60% i would get the 1% roi im looking for.

[ShaunWhite]

Strike rate is vanity, roi is sanity.

I have to disagee with that shaun every stratergy will have to have a certain strike rate to be profitable whether it's 30% or 70%, for the last 2 months i'v been testing out a new horse racing strategy which i predicted at the start would need a 60% strike rate to have a good chance of making an roi of about 1%, so far it has about 53% strike rate and it appears that it will be slightly above break even in the longer run, if i could get the strike rate above 60% i would get the 1% roi im looking for.

What I mean is that you can have a strategy with a 99% success rate and it still be a loser.

Let me put it this way, if I've got two profitable strategies, one is 1%sr and the other is 99%sr, if I were to give you one of them, which would you choose?

[marko236]

Strike rate is vanity, roi is sanity.

I have to disagee with that shaun every stratergy will have to have a certain strike rate to be profitable whether it's 30% or 70%, for the last 2 months i'v been testing out a new horse racing strategy which i predicted at the start would need a 60% strike rate to have a good chance of making an roi of about 1%, so far it has about 53% strike rate and it appears that it will be slightly above break even in the longer run, if i could get the strike rate above 60% i would get the 1% roi im looking for.

What I mean is that you can have a strategy with a 99% success rate and it still be a loser.

Let me put it this way, if I've got two profitable strategies, one is 1%sr and the other is 99%sr, if I were to give you one of them, which would you choose?

The 99% one would be vanity, but i'd take the one with the best roi.

[LinusP]

I have to disagee with that shaun every stratergy will have to have a certain strike rate to be profitable whether it's 30% or 70%, for the last 2 months i'v been testing out a new horse racing strategy which i predicted at the start would need a 60% strike rate to have a good chance of making an roi of about 1%, so far it has about 53% strike rate and it appears that it will be slightly above break even in the longer run, if i could get the strike rate above 60% i would get the 1% roi im looking for.

What I mean is that you can have a strategy with a 99% success rate and it still be a loser.

Let me put it this way, if I've got two profitable strategies, one is 1%sr and the other is 99%sr, if I were to give you one of them, which would you choose?

The 99% one would be vanity, but i'd take the one with the best roi.

This is a good read if you haven’t seen it:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=12099

[Euler]

My strike rate and stake varies dramatically between strategies and markets so it's quite a wide question. On this particular strategy stakes would have been around £1k and strike rate around mid 60's.

My manual trading on racing is in the 80's but sometimes lower sometimes higher, but around that average. But the stake rises and falls according to how much I think I can put into the market.