am i overconfident?

[comrade rubbish]

i finally got it, it took money , sweaat and tears.

I have been woodshedding I think I can trade any market, even the wobbly ones like chelmford.

I have been in practise mode for days, I did not plan to be but it has helped me practise and look at possibilities.

When I joined betfair I thought i was doing surebets/ arbsitrage.

my biggest mistake was not accepting small losses and going in play to collect more losses.

I was ready to give up, in fact I had given up. but there was a need to go and solve this puzzle.

My insticts are to scalp first.


in inplay have time markets like american football, basketball tennis and rugby, i have time limits on my ideas. the longer you are in a market, the more it is punting rather than trading.

Am I overconfident?

[spreadbetting]

Nothing wrong with having confidence in your abilities as long as they're well placed, not sure how you can be confident of your abilities when you've just been playing in practice mode though. So yes you are being overconfident and setting yourself up for a fall. It's one thing accepting a loss and not going inplay in practice mode but when there's hard earned cash on the line you may well drop back into fight or flight mode.

Only way you'll find out is by getting back into the markets, so go for it. Not sure why time limits are going to save you in in-running markets tbh.

[jimibt]

don't know... not enough info to make any conclusions, plus a few days might be a little optimistic. that said, some folk just have it from the get-go, so stay lucky.

[ShaunWhite]

I have been in practise mode for days,
Am I overconfident?

If you're still counting in days, then yes.

[Derek27]

in inplay have time markets like american football, basketball tennis and rugby, i have time limits on my ideas. the longer you are in a market, the more it is punting rather than trading.

Am I overconfident?

No, you are not over confident because you haven't expressed any confidence in your post!

All I can say is that it takes months not days, to get to grips with trading and acquire the skills to succeed and it's not true that the longer you are in a market the more it is punting rather than trading. I used to trade on antepost markets and could be in the market for months, but it was still trading. Punting is placing bets and letting them run without covering them. Trading is all about closing your position - taking a long time to close your position isn't punting unless your position is moving against you while you're waiting.

[ShaunWhite]

My insticts are to scalp first.

Why scalping? Is it that you think "surely one tick is doable?"
So many newbies think scalping horses is the answer but imo it's the hardest discipline. Lightening reactions, astute market reading, difficult psychology.

[comrade rubbish]

okay,

my problem is i came from punting. so i wanted risk , even though i was trading.

in play markets like tennis, i have stop losses , i case the market goes aganist me.

i have always used offset and stop losses but i was not disciplined.


why scalping? because if you are prepared to be that bored, you are ready to be a great trader.

in markets like basketball, even though i have a price theory, i have to be prepared to try it many times before i am right.

i think punting is opposite of trading,


for example, one of my ideas is to look for a slow start in basketball from one the teams and lay them with stop losses.

[ShaunWhite]

for example, one of my ideas is to look for a slow start in basketball from one the teams and lay them with stop losses.

I've traded quite a lot of NBA, you'll find this one tough. The slow starters are well known and they can afford to start slow because they can score big and fast. 10pts behind and the price hardly moves, 10 in front and it collapses. Same scenario as the long underdog scoring first in footy. A hard stop will probably destroy you too as 40-50 ticks of offers come and go in seconds, then there's the long delay...it's a tough gig but liquidity is good.

How long have you been trading?