Skill versus Luck

[rinconpaul]

I recommend you watch this short youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLQ6o_Jx0Rs

The 'gem' that comes out of this, that equally applies to betting markets is, "Investors are all very similarly skillfull....as a consequence, that leaves a lot to luck!"

Some people say there's no such thing as luck, you make your own? I guess luck is really just the law of mathematics/statistics being for or against you (as in good or bad runs), provided your methodology for betting/trading is sound?

Being aware of the expectations for good or bad runs is something we should all be realistic about? Taking a testbed of results for a method and plotting the outcome can come up smelling roses until you thoroughly test it with a monte carlo simulation. I can pretty well say that any successful result replayed say a 1000 times will yield not only a percentage of bad outcomes but the average Expected Value you think you might have, could be halved!

Use these modelling tools and you won't blame luck anymore, as you'll be aware of the percentage chances of good and bad outcomes, and have factored that in to your staking plan.

[Euler]

The best way to beat that market that I have found is to not do what most people are doing and that is often enough. Humans are fatally flawed and need to be replaced!

[rinconpaul]

Contrarian strategies can be successful, but only if 'most people' are making a mistake doing what they're doing, and you know it?

[Euler]

People make mistakes constantly, I think it's getting worse. Look at social media, nothing but emotion it's difficult to find anything that's been thought through or is thought provoking.

Once you are able to step out of that day to day mode of thought, it's quite enlightening. You can look back at stuff that is going on and wonder how the world is ever able to work coherently.

[SeaHorseRacing]

People make mistakes constantly, I think it's getting worse. Look at social media, nothing but emotion it's difficult to find anything that's been thought through or is thought provoking.

Once you are able to step out of that day to day mode of thought, it's quite enlightening. You can look back at stuff that is going on and wonder how the world is ever able to work coherently.

I am 29 and havent had a facebook account since I was 20/21 and twitter since 2011. Life is so much better without it.

[spreadbetting]

Some people say there's no such thing as luck, you make your own? I guess luck is really just the law of mathematics/statistics being for or against you (as in good or bad runs), provided your methodology for betting/trading is sound?

I guess the majority of poor traders make their own bad luck rather than good traders having the luck of the draw continually.

[rinconpaul]

Listening to the stockmarket report on the radio, it went a bit like this, "...the DOW didn't progress overnight, closing lower as buyers met a wall of sellers. Sellers being on the front foot..."

OK it's been scripted nicely, but let's try and understand the logic here, and I often say that there is no logic in why things happen, especially in betting markets! A bunch of sellers across numerous stocks decided that last night was a time to sell more than buy. How do you comprehend that, there's been no bad world news to cause a fallback in the DOW, it just happens that way?

Similarly with Betfair, trading prices go up and down at a whim, why. How can you predict it....you can't? It's the nature of the beast we grapple with each day...longshots win and favourites lose...it's not logical!

[northbound]

[rinconpaul]

So true northbound, love it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EoAHdwGBvU

[Euler]

Human nature is to extrapolate trends in either direction and put meaning to something that has no meaning. If you can get on the other side of that its worth a lot of money. Simple, but not easy.

[LinusP]

Human nature is to extrapolate trends in either direction and put meaning to something that has no meaning. If you can get on the other side of that its worth a lot of money. Simple, but not easy.

So when are you writing a book Peter?