How many traders?

[SeaHorseRacing]

I find this topic interesting and i think Euler will most likely have the most accurate answer.

How many traders do you think are out there? Not just day in day out. I suppose betfair can truly answer this question but wondering if we can work it out with some logic behind it.

Is only about 10 real professionals? with about 50 full time tryers and a few hundred part timers or is it really significanly bigger?

When looking at the market it allways seems more people are still betting then they are trading imo. But curious to know if the numbers are in the many thousands or actually quite small. Regardless if professional, unprofitable or the come and goers.

Open to any thoughts or some kind of clever calculation to have an educated guess.

[Derek27]

Is only about 10 real professionals? with about 50 full time tryers and a few hundred part timers or is it really significanly bigger?

Are you being serious ?

I don't think even Betfair could work it out an accurate figure - there's no way of knowing if somebody who places a large back bet is a gambler, a trader who traded out on Betdaq, or an arber.

I would guess there must be at least tens of thousands of full time professional traders worldwide. I suspect there are far more full time triers.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Is only about 10 real professionals? with about 50 full time tryers and a few hundred part timers or is it really significanly bigger?

Are you being serious ?

I don't think even Betfair could work it out an accurate figure - there's no way of knowing if somebody who places a large back bet is a gambler, a trader who traded out on Betdaq, or an arber.

I would guess there must be at least tens of thousands of full time professional traders worldwide. I suspect there are far more full time triers.

I dont agree that its 10,000s. At one time?

[Derek27]

Sorry, I may have misunderstood the question. Are you talking about one market or all markets at one particular time ?

[SeaHorseRacing]

Sorry, I may have misunderstood the question. Are you talking about one market or all markets at one particular time ?

Just find it an interesting subject from all angles. Generally and indiviually.

[Kafkaesque]

Is only about 10 real professionals? with about 50 full time tryers and a few hundred part timers or is it really significanly bigger?

Are you being serious ?

I don't think even Betfair could work it out an accurate figure - there's no way of knowing if somebody who places a large back bet is a gambler, a trader who traded out on Betdaq, or an arber.

I would guess there must be at least tens of thousands of full time professional traders worldwide. I suspect there are far more full time triers.

They - BF - cannot get it completely accurate for the very reasons, you state, but they can still come pretty darn close to accurate, as trading out on Betdaq will be very rare compared to trading back and forth on BF. If they know what they're doing, they'll have numbers on the exchange both in terms of volume and number of customers who are bettors and traders respectively (and somewhere in between). Again not completely accurately, but incredibly close to it.

It strikes me as relatively easy thing to compile for them, and would be essential for their decision-making as to how to plan what to invest in, both in tech improvements and marketing, between the sportsbook and exchange.

[Derek27]

Fair point, they could identify the traders from the data they hold, but not gamblers from arbers. They certainly couldn't tell from data whether a successful trader is professional or hobbyist. They wouldn't be able to tell if the less or unsuccessful traders are trying to become professional or hobbyists.

Having said that, I can remember several years ago doing a Betfair survey asking, amongst other things, if Betfair is a source of income, scale of 0-10, agree/disagree. So they must have an interest and some survey data on the subject. The question is, would they have any reason to share that information ?

Edit: I think it's time I stop talking about trading and get some done.

[spreadbetting]

Is only about 10 real professionals? with about 50 full time tryers and a few hundred part timers or is it really significanly bigger?

When looking at the market it allways seems more people are still betting then they are trading imo. But curious to know if the numbers are in the many thousands or actually quite small. Regardless if professional, unprofitable or the come and goers.

Open to any thoughts or some kind of clever calculation to have an educated guess.

I'm guessing you're only talking about horse racing and even then they'll be significantly more than 10 people making a decent living out of trading. They'll always be more people betting in the market but I've no idea how you're able to spot who's trading from watching the figures and guess at the numbers. I'd be surprised if people could spot my activity in the market as trading and the same would apply to other traders I know.

As for exact figures you'd need to be more concise as to what's a pro, there's probably thousands out there doubling their dole cheques to a few hundred each week and happy to live off that whereas most of us wouldn't see them as pro's they may well do.

[xitian]

I vaguely remember my Betfair account manager saying that they each have around 50 premium users on their accounts, and they have 2 or 3 account managers? Vague figures due to my bad memory, but that's at least the rough magnitude. I presume those are all active users who are paying the premium charge. Then I think there are several hundred who pay premium charge, but not enough to warrant a dedicated account manager.

Of course that only measures people who are profitable on Betfair. Plus some of those will be syndicates which are probably grouped into one (and might have several partners or 100s of members, aka employees). Recently that Smarkets CEO (who seems to have ignored my questions) mentioned that they have "many" users who have made 6 figures.

[ShaunWhite]

there's probably thousands out there doubling their dole cheques to a few hundred each week

Double = a few hundred? Double would get you to about £140. A married couple doubled.. about 210. Same for the long term disabled.

[napshnap]

Phhh, they (Betfair) invented premium charges and you tell me that they can't calculate the number of their traders. I think the only thing Betfair doesn't know about me is wich toilet paper I wipe my ass with.

[ShaunWhite]

Phhh, they (Betfair) invented premium charges.

It was a bold but great business desicion to capitalise on their current monopoly. Classic make hay while it shines. Everyone typically discounts for bulk because it's the way things work.....but not them, they increased charges for large turnovers, genius. That's why we're sat here fighting for a few grand while they're sat back sipping the bolli.

[spreadbetting]

there's probably thousands out there doubling their dole cheques to a few hundred each week

Double = a few hundred? Double would get you to about £140. A married couple doubled.. about 210. Same for the long term disabled.

I claimed in the 80's and it was around £40 as far as I can remember so imagined it would have at least gone up since then. Either way I imagine there's a lot of smaller players able to live on amounts a lot less than most of us want ,either at home and certainly abroad.

[ShaunWhite]

there's probably thousands out there doubling their dole cheques to a few hundred each week

Double = a few hundred? Double would get you to about £140. A married couple doubled.. about 210. Same for the long term disabled.

I claimed in the 80's and it was around £40 as far as I can remember so imagined it would have at least gone up since then. Either way I imagine there's a lot of smaller players able to live on amounts a lot less than most of us want ,either at home and certainly abroad.

I think you're right about those making a little bit, especially where it's nice and cheap to live, probably more losing it trying to though.

£40 in 1985 was equiv to £118.50 today (http://inflation.iamkate.com/)
....JSE (dole) is now 16 to 24: £57.35, 25 or over: £72.40, Couples £114.85
Not much left after your food, bills, broadband, TV Subs and your BA subscription. Oh and they don't pay all of the rent either but this isn't the time or the place.

Your comment made me wonder what it was these days so I looked it up (I'd just guessed) , never a bad thing to remind yourself how fortunate you are.

[SeaHorseRacing]

How has this thread turned into a dole office.